Two of the top minds in NBA media — ESPN’s Tim Legler and DNVR Nuggets’ Adam Mares — have the San Antonio Spurs’ ceiling as a first-round exit. The wise guys also have them winning 44.5 games (FanDuel,
DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook), which makes one wonder, are they still underrated?
Keep in mind that the Spurs were as high as the ninth seed in 2024-25 after 40.2 percent of the season. At that time, they were a half-game behind the Minnesota Timberwolves and a half-game ahead of the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors ended up as the seventh seed (with 48 wins) and significantly improved after trading for Jimmy Butler. The Spurs never got a real chance to combine their new firepower after trading for De’Aaron Fox because Wembanyama was out with a blood clot shortly after. Then Fox was shut down for surgery.
Some of the nice things from preseason that have jumped off the page are Julian Champagnie’s 3-point shooting, Carter Bryant’s jail yard defense plus Keldon Johnson’s efficiency, which might carry over. There’s also the added continuity of Johnson and Devin Vassell, who are going into year seven and six with the team and both were a part of the top eight rotation last year.
No doubt Fox’s hamstring injury is a big factor. He feels he can play already, but the cautious route will presumably be taken because of how much of his explosiveness comes from the hamstring and how much his game is made by speed.
Still, the Spurs have enough to get by over .500 until he’s back. Their defense should be stronger, considering Stephon Castle was an effective point-of-attack pest as a rookie, and Victor Wembanyama’s pick-and-roll defense gets better yearly.
To boot, the offseason upgrades included quality backup big men in Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk. Each of them can play next to Wembanyama, but their value will be felt in the non-Wemby minutes so the team doesn’t sink. Both are veteran seven-footers who are good at guarding the back line. And think of all the times Charles Bassey or Bismack Biyombo set a screen and were left open. If that happens now with the Olynyk and Kornet, it’s probably a bucket.
Eventually, Fox will be available. Apart from scoring, his entry passes will make Wembanyama extra dangerous below the elbow because he’ll be able to use his cheat code size closer and without the extra attention of doing it on the dribble.
Outsiders are maybe underestimating how lethal the Fox-Wemby combo will be. Wemby has a target to hit in transition for easy baskets. Fox is going to feed him for a bunch of jump shots in the half-court because he attracts help defenders when going inside. Consider that Wemby converted 37.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys last year and only 31.3 percent on the dribble. He improved by 9.4% percent on his threes off the catch from rookie to sophomore year.
Screen rolls between them are going to overload the lane and have the potential to match the Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić two-man action. The beauty in this pairing is that Wemby is a capable ball handler, so inverted sets put him in position to pass over the top to shooters on the side. He’s added a bit of strength over the summer, too, which will help get downhill easier on those possessions.
It’s going on nine years since the Spurs have won a playoff series and just getting there isn’t good enough. A history of winning has spoiled supporters, and the Fox trade with summer additions sped up the timeline to win and they need to produce more than baby steps. They can get there, and their ceiling is the second round.
