A series split against the Brewers and a series win (pending the final game of the series) against the Dodgers. What’s gone right for the team during that stretch, and is it sustainable?
DBacksEurope: I want to put this in a bit broader perspective, looking at the Diamondbacks in the month of August. After wrapping up that disappointing month of July, and I will include the 5-1 loss against the Athletics in it, the team has been pretty competitive in August altogether, with almost every game being a narrow loss or a narrow win, including the painful losses against the Rockies at Coors.
On the pitching side you have to conclude that Zac Gallen has turned around the page (2.47 ERA in August)
and Andrew Saalfrank has been a steady force in the bullpen. Except for Saalfrank, the bullpen is pretty much a “one day we are on our game and one day we are not”, just like E-Rod has his days, like Pfaadt. Even Nelson has been too unstable, we aren’t used to it anymore.
Offensively, Carroll and Marte are doing what they are supposed to do, but Gabby’s return has been of immediate impact (.905 OPS), while Perdomo and Blaze have been scorching hot (.968 OPS and .917 OPS in August). Is it sustainable? With just one month left, yes, this can be kept up for another month.
Wesley: Full disclosure for those unaware, I’m notorious for almost never actually watching games during the regular season. Generally, I am fine with box scores and highlights. So to absolutely no one’s surprise, my opinions in this roundtable are based on maybe half an hour of research viewing box scores and player stats. What did stand out to me during my cursory research was Gallen pitching not terrible for once this season seems like a contributing factor, Lourdes Gurriel Jr hitting as expected, as well as Blaze Alexander coming up with a hot bat and overall much better success with runners in scoring position. I don’t know if the drivers of the D’backs recent success is sustainable, but then again I didn’t expect them to fall a** backwards into a World Series run in 2023. Ildemaro Vargas hitting homers is not something I’d count on again though.
Spencer: I’m more of the mindset that we hit two good times at the right time more than anything. Especially the Dodgers. They’ve been the worst team in baseball for like a month or more. And Milwaukee had an epic run; they were bound to fall back eventually. But I’m not going to discount the ease of playing your opponents’ talent when expectations are gone. The few playoff appearances we’ve had have taught me anyone can really lock in for brief periods at a time. We look good this week. Is nice.
Makakilo: This season, looking at groups of 16 games, the Diamondbacks have not consistently scored baserunners.
I liked what I saw in August (excluding 1 August to be consistent with DBE’s comment, and excluding today’s game on 31 August). The following table compares August to 2024, when the Diamondbacks scored the most runs in baseball. Data from Baseball Reference.
Baserunner Stats from 2024.
- 1811 baserunners (two sigma more than the 21-23 average).
- 7.7% of baserunners scored because of home runs (these runs exclude the batter).
- 27.3% of baserunners scored because of non-homers (excluding errors, wild pitches, HBPs, and GDPs)
For more details see this AZ Snake Pit article.
1AZfan1: Lots have gone right for the Snakes this month. Lourdes being Hot Lourdes. Blaze going full Flame On. I think just about the only thing that’s sustainable at this level is Corbin/Ketel/Domo. Blaze is exceeding his expected stats by a decent margin right now. The rotation and bullpen have been above average (more on them in my answer to the next question). I’ll also add that Lourdes has driven in the second most runs in baseball this month while only being a slightly above average hitter. His wRC+ this month is only 117 which is miles lower than anyone else on the RBI leaderboard this month. Lourdes leads all of MLB in Clutch in August (per FanGraphs) which measures how hitters perform in high leverage situations. That being said, the guys who are consistently good are All-Stars and MVP candidates year-in and -out and it’s not realistic to expect more than half the lineup to be that good all the time. I’m hopeful that the baseline talent on this roster is good enough that guys can alternate hot-cold so when a couple guys cool off, another couple heat up. As long as our stalwarts provide their baseline excellence, we might be ok the rest of the way.
ISH95: I think giving walk-off home runs to the Dodgers is imminently sustainable.
What parts of it are a mirage?
DBacksEurope: Except for Marte, pretty much every regular player is hitting in August above his season and normal average (Gurriel, Thomas, Vargas, Moreno, Perdomo, Blaze, Carroll), so there is your miracle.
Wesley: Gallen pitching well again feels like a mirage. Some team this offseason is going to make a very expensive mistake thinking that they’ll get the good Gallen and not the Gallen who’s shown up for most of the last two seasons.
Spencer: The opponents’ play. And I really don’t trust ERod. But I like to believe that bats like Blaze are taking those final steps. Mirage for now and showcase of talent later (think Perdomo circa 2023 but probably not as high a ceiling).
Makakilo: Two stats look great, but more than anything they reveal excellent performance in situations that win or lose games. That skill may be a mirage, or optimistically it is a result of mental strengths which we will see next season.
- Walk Off Wins (WOWs). 3 WOWs in August look great compared to a total of 3 WOWs in March through July.
- Win-Loss Record in 1-Run Games. 6-5 in August (through 30th) looks great compared to 12-20 in March through July.
1AZfan1: Our pitching has been outrageously good/lucky at limiting the long ball. Do you know which team has the lowest HR/9 in the month of August? Yep, it’s our beloved Snakes. We are the only team in MLB with a HR/FB percentage below 10% (we’re at 8.5%). Is that sustainable? Absolutely not, and that’s likely why our pitching ERA/FIP has rebounded from the bottom fourth of baseball through the end of July to 13th in August. Our xFIP in August, which takes our FIP and normalizes the HR rate to league average, has us at 26th. Interestingly, our xFIP through July was 15th, indicating we were a bit unlucky with the long ball through the trade deadline.
Gallen and Rodriguez both put together scoreless outings against the Dodgers, well outperforming their season norms. Which is most likely to finish strong?
DBacksEurope: Gallen. Like I mentioned before, Gallen has a 2.47 ERA since his first start in August. E-Rod couldn’t get out of the 3rd inning against Milwaukee a week ago. He has a 4.7 BB/9 in August.
Wesley: Gallen, he’s playing for that bag. Both have been far enough below average this sensible that it won’t take much for them to be better.
Spencer: Gallen. He’s playing for some version of a payday while ERod is playing to not get cut in a system with zero viable replacements before July 2026.
Makakilo: They have high potential to outperform their season norms because their ERA+s are below average (81 and 88). Slight edge to Rodriguez because this season he pitched less innings (125 vs 162 innings).
The Savannah Bananas are in talks to be part of the MLB All Star Week. How would you like to see them incorporated?
DBacksEurope: I couldn’t care less, but I suppose having them play some innings against recently retired MLB players could be fun for some people.
Spencer: I’d like to see them replace the All Star Game entirely. But realistically I’d like to see all the old guys with long careers who aren’t “all star” caliber anymore play against the Bananas. Give more credence to the weird forced veteran player they’ve done in the past. I’d rather see Pujols, Goldy, Miggy, Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw play fun ball than act as grandparent coaches for younger players. Injuries be damned. If that’s a risk the teams/players aren’t willing to take, why are they playing still?
Wesley: The idea of HoFers and retired players playing against the Bananas sounds like it’d be a lot of fun. The All-Star Game is meaningless anyway, MLB should use it as an opportunity fof experimentation.
Makakilo: My preference is for the Savannah Bananas to have a dedicated day to do their event.
Hat tip to DBE for the wonderful idea to see old baseball stars play. What about each team in the All-Star game has three old baseball stars, each of whom is allowed one golden at-bat (the manager can send each star to the plate when he chooses).
1AZfan1: I think the Bananas deserve a prime time slot. Maybe the Sunday Night Baseball game immediately prior to the Break? Have them play against a bunch of prospects instead of the Futures Game? I’d absolutely watch the Bananas/Derby/ASG 3 straight days. If they add the Bananas during the day on Monday or Tuesday, ratings won’t be there because most of the US will still be at work.
What are you currently reading and/or watching on TV?
DBacksEurope: I am currently watching the new Alien : Earth series on Disney+. I hope they maintain the pace, action and thrill. Alien Romulus was surprisingly good (just like Prey was in the Predator franchise), so there is your baseline. Apart from that, I sometimes watch an episode of “Draining the oceans” or something else from National Geographic. Other than that I don’t watch series/movies unless my family says I have to watch a movie with them or I encounter a gem like Fallout or The rings of power. Action, yes.
Each month I receive my copy of the National Geographic and on a daily basis I read a Dutch liberal newspaper digitally with a subscription.
I am reading two books (I’ll translate titles to English): “the fox Reynaert” is a Dutch book on the first ever known poem in Dutch literature. The poem is epic and terrific and evil and the book I am reading explains everything that is written in the poem, known about the poem and not known about the writer. More info: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_den_vos_Reynaerde
The other book I am reading is the Spanish version of “the flame” from Arturo Barea. It’s about the siege of Madrid in the Spanish civil war. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arturo_Barea
After that I will finish the original German version of “auxiliary cruiser Kormoran” which was a nazi merchant raider that sank an Australian cruiser and the book is written by the German captain. Check more here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_auxiliary_cruiser_Kormoran
Spencer: Reading is pretty much exclusively work related documents at this point. Really sucks the fun out of the action. But I’m going to try getting into audiobooks soon and maybe run while listening to them.
Watching: I’ve been blowing through the StarGate series(es). I just finished Atlantis and am like 1.5 episodes into Universe. I’m hoping Amazon brings it back in some fashion because it’s a really good show/concept. And it’s even got that Minecraft meme-ability to entice Gen Alpha because it’s all about aliens building the pyramids! Make it happen Amazon!
Makakilo: Tomorrow I start a vacation. My 4 books for the plane include 22 Success Lessons from Baseball.
1AZfan1: I don’t do as much recreational reading as I should. Last book I read was Team of Teams by Gen. Stanley McChrystal a couple months back. For TV, most of my non-sports screen time is devoted to YouTube channels that my wife and I follow. Don’t watch very much traditional TV at all.
ISH95: Currently finishing a reread of The Dresden Files. I’ve read it a few times, but my wife started reading it, so I decided to refresh my memory on it as she goes. I think next is going to either be the The Legend of Drizzt, which I read a lot of, then the author went and wrote another twenty books or so, or the Ender’s Game/Shadow series, much to the joy of Spencer, I’m sure.
