The Cardinals have missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, suffering losing seasons in two of those years. After losing 84 games last year, they traded away veterans Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, and Sonny Gray. They now have the second-youngest lineup and fourth-youngest pitching staff, and have gotten off to a great start, winning 11 of their last 16.
Kansas City Royals (19-25) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (25-18) at Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Royals: 4.11 runs scored/game
(25th in MLB), 4.57 runs allowed/game (19th)
Cardinals: 4.63 runs scored/game (9th), 4.58 runs allowed/game (20th)
By most offensive metrics, the Cardinals are nearly identical to the Royals, hitting .240/.321/.390 as a team. JJ Wetherholt is a frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, although he is hitting just .213/.327/.277 this month. Not only has he starred offensively, he is among the top players defensively, by Outs Above Average.
After years of disappointment, former first round pick Jordan Walker has turned a corner as is seventh in baseball with a 166 wRC+. Shortstop Masyn Winn is hitting .343/.400/.457 against lefties. Lefty Victor Scott II is hitting just .125 in 85 plate appearances against righties.
Michael Wacha starts the opener for the Royals. He has never lost to the team that made him a first round pick in 2012, going 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five career starts against the Cardinals. The Cardinals signed Dustin May last winter, and after two rough starts to begin the year, he has a 2.55 ERA over his last six starts. Opponents are hitting .302 against his 97 mph fastball, but he has a 31.4 percent whiff rate on his sweeper.
Noah Cameron has given up 20 runs in 25 innings over his last five starts. Kyle Leahy made 61 relief appearances for the Cardinals last year, with a 3.07 ERA. he tossed five shutout innings, allowing just two hits, but four walks against the Padres in his last start.
Andre Pallante had a 5.31 ERA last year in 31 starts, the fourth-highest among qualified starters. He relies a lot on a sinker/slider/curve combo that helps him net a 55.7 percent groundball rate. Vinnie Pasquantino is just 1-for-11 against him in their career matchups.
The Cardinals’ bullpen has a 4.70 ERA, fifth-worst in baseball. Riley O’Brien made a career-high 31 appearances last year at age 30, and now leads the National League with 13 saves, although he has three blown saves. He throws a hard sinking fastball that generates a 61 percent groundball rate. Kansas City native Ryne Stanek joins the Cardinals bullpen with a 98 mph fastball. JoJo Romero has a reverse split, with leftie shitting .233/.303/.433 against him.
The Cardinals have a young, hungry team with a lot to prove, and Busch Stadium is always a difficult place to play. The Cards have been surprisingly mediocre at home – they’ve split their first 20 games there – but the Royals have been a dreadful road team. The Royals will need to show they can win away from Kauffman Stadium and stop the bleeding after a dreadful sweep in Chicago.
