Women’s MMA pioneers Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano will clash this weekend (Sat., May 16, 2026) live on Netflix inside Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif., for the “Rousey vs. Carano”-led MVP MMA 1 card.
It’s been nearly a decade since Rousey’s final UFC appearance, a one-sided drubbing at the hands of eventual GOAT Amanda Nunes. Prior to her pair of losses, it’s hard to overstate the dominance of the “Rowdy” reign. She was winning in seconds routinely and landing stunning knockouts to the point that
it was hard not to buy into the hype. It all feels a bit absurd looking back, but Rousey defended her UFC title four times in less than 2.5 minutes.
That IS absurd!
As for Carano, we have to reach even further back into the annals of MMA history. She retired after a knockout loss to Cris Cyborg all the way back in 2009, so while I’ve been covering this sport for 13 years and training for 17, I cannot claim to personally know what it was like to watch Carano come up the Elite XC ranks while beating up the other female OGs. Like a majority of those reading, this will be my first live Carano bout, and I’m very much looking forward to it.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Rousey vs. Carano Betting Odds
- Ronda Rousey victory: -590
- Ronda Rousey via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
- Ronda Rousey via submission: -210
- Ronda Rousey via decision: +1300
- Gina Carano victory: +390
- Gina Carano via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
- Gina Carano via submission: +2000
- Gina Carano via decision: +250
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Rousey Wins
Rousey is a wrecking ball. Whether with power punches or Judo throws, Rousey crashes into his opponents and looks to end the evening quickly. In the clinch, she’s a master of fighting inside and outside with hip position, chaining trips and throws brilliantly. Once on the canvas, Rousey is always looking for her trademark armbar, which is responsible for nine of her professional victories.
Can Rousey rush forward, toss Carano, and land an armbar inside two minutes? The oddsmakers certainly seem to think so! Since she’s no longer stuck in the MMA dark ages of 2015 — the days of yore where strategy and mixing the martial arts hadn’t been invented yet — perhaps now is the time to move beyond the bumrush game plan, which could be exhausting or run her directly into a hard counter punch.
In an ideal world, Rousey will close distance a little more methodically, cutting off the cage rather than sprinting on a straight line. She has the offensive firepower to force Carano’s respect, which should allow her to feint and angle her way into the clinch more safely.
From there, the Judo Olympian can do what she does best.
How Carano Wins
Carano’s martial arts journey began in Muay Thai, where she competed over a dozen times before transitioning to MMA. In the cage, striking remained a strength, but Carano did develop her wrestling and jiu-jitsu to a reasonable degree to the point that she was well-rounded for her era.
How well those skills hold up in 2026 is anybody’s guess.
Fortunately, there is a fairly decisive game plan written for stopping Ronda Rousey. “Rowdy” surges forward on straight lines, which makes lateral movement a real priority. Holly Holm convinced Rousey to swing at air repeatedly and crash into the fence simply by angling left or right consistently. Once Rousey was a little flustered, Holm would occasionally plant her feet and let Rousey run into a counter shot amplified by her own forward movement.
Carano has striking chops necessary to employ a similar strategy, perhaps with a couple straight rights to the body mixed in to help avoid the clinch. As the career Featherweight facing a Bantamweight, Carano’s strength and power could prove quite helpful in denying the takedown and scoring damaging counter shots.
Rousey vs. Carano Prediction
Despite the wide odds, this feels like a fairly compelling matchup. Rousey’s final UFC run ended with her taking punches very poorly, and she’s going up against a superior striker with a size advantage. There’s a non-zero chance that Carano only has to crack Rousey with a single right hand to completely derail the Judo and send her spiraling to another knockout loss.
Conversely, Carano is 44 and hasn’t fought in ages. It’s impossible to trust that her defensive skills will stand up to Rousey’s vaunted armbar. This matchup feels like a stylistic shootout that nearly guarantees a quick finish, one way or another.
Netflix’s first MMA main event is unlikely to be boring.
