Some problems have multiple solutions. Other problems have no solution, and that’s why competing hypothetical solutions seem viable to different people.
It’s hard to say which of those two types of problems the Houston Rockets have right now.
The two 2025-26 NBA Western Conference Finalists are lightyears ahead of Houston. Some fans are waving the white flag. Others are annoyed by the white flag that’s blocking their view. Everybody thinks they know what the team ought to do.
It all comes back to “the
window”. It’s the ubiquitous metaphor used to describe a team’s title odds in terms of both probability and duration. As it stands, the Rockets have an extremely narrow title window that stands to be open for a long time. The two prevailing solutions to the problem (the problem being that this team has no chance to beat the Thunder or Spurs short of major injuries) are to either widen the window at the expense of length or lengthen the window’s openness at the expense of width.
Let’s simplify. Forget the window. The Rockets are not in the same league as the Thunder or the Spurs. They can either acquire a superstar that might put them in that league, or acquire assets that might keep them just outside of that league for a long enough time to capitalize on some luck (re: major injuries).
What is the solution?
Rockets’ superstar pursuits could be in vain
Firstly, we need to look at the available options. The Rockets cannot manifest a superstar player. Is the right guy even available?
Donovan Mitchell? Pass. Small guard. It would be more prudent from an asset management perspective to see how Sheppard develops. Mitchell and Fred VanVleet in the same backcourt should be a non-starter. Mitchell doesn’t even get the Rockets in the same zip code as the Thunder or Spurs.
Jaylen Brown? A bit more tempting. There are still reservations. Running Amen Thompson as the nominal two guard (while he functions as a wing) allows the Rockets to lean into size. If you bump him to the three to put Brown at the two, now you’re 6’6″ at the two and 6’7″ at the three. Now, you’re not especially large with 6’10″ish Alperen Sengun in the middle.
Is being big the be-all, end-all? Not in general, but for the Rockets, it might be. Ime Udoka wants them to bash and bruise their way to the top. Whether you think he’s an inmate running an asylum or…a warden?… There’s some logic in that approach. The Rockets are extremely unlikely to build the most talented team in the NBA by virtue of the fact that Victor Wembanyama is one of one, and so are the Thunder. Realistically, that’s the entire premise of this article.
Now, if Thompson can continue to develop as a point guard, there’s some appeal here. A Thompson/Brown backcourt is the biggest in the league. That said, based on what we saw in 2025-26, the safe money isn’t necessarily on Thompson as a long-term point guard.
It should also be noted that Brown doesn’t solve many of Houston’s pressing problems. Ball-handling is his biggest weakness. There’s a world where acquiring Brown improves the Rockets’ championship equity while building on their identity. There are likely more worlds where that move gets Houston into the Conference Finals once, only to get stomped by whichever of the aforementioned powerhouses didn’t suffer a major injury.
Take every word written about Brown, apply it to Kawhi Leonard, and then add that he’s old and will probably get hurt. Pass.
Then, there’s Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Entire manifestos have been written on the issue. Let’s keep this brief. Antetokounmpo is comfortably the best player the Rockets could acquire this summer. His inability to shoot makes him a tough sell alongside Thompson (or Sengun, but he’d presumably be in the Antetokounmpo deal).
You could acquire him and then also flip Thompson. For argument’s sake, let’s say you turn Thompson into Trey Murphy III. Let’s say you sign Brook Lopez (yes, I know he’s very old) so that Antetokounmpo has his stretch five.
Fred VanVleet / Trey Murphy III / Kevin Durant / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Brook Lopez. That team can compete with anyone. That’s a real title window.
Yet, it’s probably, shockingly, still not enough to beat the Thunder or Spurs. It could be. It’s feasible. But it won’t make the Rockets the 2026-27 presumptive title favorites. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it. It’s defensible.
It’s the second-best (possible) solution to this (possibly unsolvable) problem.
The Rockets should prioritize the future
I think the smarter move is to continue to build towards the future while fielding competitive teams. The Rockets have the luxury to do that with so many of their future first-round picks coming from other teams.
That doesn’t mean complacency. The Rockets could give the current iteration one more year to see what they can accomplish with VanVleet and Steven Adams back in the fold, or not. Let’s say they do. It seems like they want to.
If the fit issues between Sengun, Thompson, and Sheppard persist, you don’t need to go all in on a sub-top-ten superstar. You trade one of these guys (hint: It’s Sengun, because he’s the one that presents fit issues with both) for a lesser, better-fitting veteran and assets. You keep drafting.
At a minimum, you can build a team that’s a playoff fixture for a decade. That’s not the fantasy most of us lived in before now. The Rockets are picking in the lottery for time immemorial. It’s a foolproof way to build a dynasty!
No, it’s not. Such a method does not exist. As it turns out, even being a playoff fixture for a long stretch is something. There are NBA teams that have not been in that position for a long time.
Here’s the secret: Sometimes, those teams do actually win NBA championships! The ’04 Pistons. The ’11 Mavericks. The ’19 Raptors (who did make a major trade, but spent much longer than the Rockets have with a sub-championship core).
The calculus is basically this: Instead of buying one lottery ticket with a $10 million payout and a 0.000000342% chance of winning, buy ten tickets with a $1 million payout and a 0.05% chance of winning. No, you’re probably not winning either way, but giving yourself a larger number of chances maximizes the odds.
Of course, we can’t quantify NBA title odds as precisely. If you’re reading this and thinking the hypothetical Giannis and Trey Murphy III lineup has better odds than I’m suggesting, fair enough. Ultimately, there’s no singular, clear-cut solution to the problem:
If there’s even a solution at all.
