The Detroit Lions eked out a win against the New York Giants on Sunday, but their playoff position didn’t change at all in Week 12. They remain in the NFC’s eight seed—one spot out of the playoffs—despite being 7-4 on the season. Detroit got zero help from the other Week 12 outcomes, with the Bears, Packers, Seahawks, Cowboys, Rams, and 49ers all picking up key wins. Through 12 weeks, here’s a reminder of the NFC playoff standings:
- Rams: 9-2
- Eagles: 8-3
- Bears: 8-3
- Buccaneers: 6-5
- Seahawks: 8-3
- Packers: 7-3-1
- 49ers: 8-4
- Lions: 7-4
- Panthers: 6-6
- Cowboys: 5-5-1
- Falcons: 4-7
- Vikings: 4-7
At this point, the NFC contenders are starting to separate themselves
from the pretenders. There are essentially eight teams rallying for seven spots, although the Panthers and Cowboys could sneak their way into the conversation if they play flawless football for the final six weeks of the season.
For now, let’s talk about the top eight seeds, and answer today’s Question of the Day:
Which NFC contender is most likely to fall off?
My answer: First, let’s look at the schedule. Here are the strengths of schedule remaining by win percentage, from hardest to easiest (via Tankathon):
- Packers: .636
- Bears: .621
- Lions: .606
- Seahawks: .574
- 49ers: .509
- Rams: .463
- Eagles: .455
- Buccaneers: .368
And here’s remaining strength of schedule by DVOA
- Bears: 5th hardest in entire NFL
- Seahawks: 8th
- Lions: 9th
- Rams: 10th
- 49ers: 14th
- Packers: 16th
- Eagles: 26th
- Buccaneers: 32nd
The Bears, Lions, and Seahawks all have arguably the toughest schedules remaining, according to both metrics. But how actually good are each of these teams. Let’s look by a few metrics here. First, there’s DVOA. Here are the teams ranked from best to worst by DVOA:
- Rams: 1st overall
- Seahawks: 2nd
- Lions: 4th
- Packers: 6th
- Eagles: 8th
- 49ers: 11th
- Buccaneers: 15th
- Bears: 22nd
And here’s by point differential:
- Rams: +127
- Seahawks: +107
- Lions: +83
- Packers +61
- Eagles: +30
- 49ers: +20
- Bears: -3
- Buccaneers: -25
The conclusion is pretty obvious here. The Bears fall on the wrong end of the spectrum in all four rankings here. They’ve skirted by so far with an 8-3 record against what DVOA ranks as the second-easiest schedule in football. With the fifth-hardest schedule remaining, it seems like Chicago is in for a rough December.
But to be completely fair, the Lions may be the second-most likely team to fall off. They have nearly as difficult of a schedule, and while their team talent rankings are high, their currently trajectory is headed in the wrong direction, going 3-3 in their last six games after a 4-1 start. Obviously, they’re also just a game behind everyone right now, and their 4-3 record in the conference—a key tiebreaker—is tied for the worst among contenders right now (with the Seahawks and Bucs).
One dark horse candidate to slide is the Seahawks. While their team measures are fantastic, their schedule ends with a pretty brutal four-game stretch: vs. Colts, vs. Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers. Seattle cannot afford to drop one of their next two (vs. Vikings, at Falcons), because they’ll need to play at least .500 ball against four teams fighting for a playoff spot after that.
Do you think any other team is likely to fall off in the final six weeks of the season? Share your thoughts in the comment section below.
