From my own Bears-centric view of things, the Chicago Bears under Ryan Poles seem to have had a pretty rare set of conditions to help usher along a rebuild. In his first five years on the job, Poles had four selections in the top third of the first round (i.e. Top 11 picks) including the #1 overall pick. He also made nine eight selections in the Top 50, and seventeen selections in the Top 100. How many GMs have enjoyed that much opportunity?
Well, it depends. Obviously, the selections needed to be
available under the same general manager. This excludes teams like Cleveland, which had back-to-back #1 selections in 2017 (Garrett) and 2018 (Mayfield) and seven top-ten picks in just nine years–but that was under six different managers. It also excludes Nick Cesario of Houston Texans, who would put up a good show but who only has three picks in the top eleven, even if all those were made within the top three. Likewise, if the sticking point is four elite selections, Trent Baalke doesn’t count either. He made back-to-back selections with the #1 overall pick (Lawrence and Walker), and despite having more pricey premium picks on a per-year basis than Poles (averaging 2,581 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart just in his four years, or the equivalent of having the #4 spot in the draft for four straight years), he didn’t qualify because his tenure was too short.
Also not included, even though he would technically qualify, is Les Snead. He did in fact have four elite picks (and the #13 selection he used on Aaron Donald) in a 4-year stretch, but I intend on doing a larger piece later in the season looking at exactly how the Rams have defied convention on so many different fronts. For now, though, here are the other nine in ascending order of Top 11 draft picks made, with ties broken by average value of top picks made.
Jason Licht (2014-present) Buccaneers
Licht needed seven years to reach the playoffs, but when he got his team there, they won it all. His first six years averaged 2,358 points of premium draft selections per year and a .34 win rate, meaning he had more to work with but worse results than Poles has had to date. Of course, that championship the next year covers a lot.
Key Selections: 4/18/31, meaning that he had 4 picks in the top eleven, 18 picks in the top fifty, and 31 in the first three rounds* with 19,457 in premium picks (1,621 per year) over his 12-year career.
Record: 93-104 (.47 win) with a 6-4 record including a championship year
Key Picks: Jameis Winston (#1), Devin White (#5), Mike Evans (#7), and Vernon Hargreaves III (#11)
*All third-round tallies exclude those picks made in the compensatory pick range.
Steve Keim (2013-2022) Cardinals
Keim is a member of the “two quarterback club”, in that as a general manager he got two chances to draft his own passer. His decade in power in Arizona was ultimately pretty bland, with very middling results.
Key Selection Ranges: 4/14/26 with 16,647 points in premium picks (1,665 per year) over his 10-year career
Record: 80-80 in the regular season (.50 win), 1-3 in the playoffs
Key Picks: Kyler Murray (#1), Jonathan Cooper (#7), Isaiah Simmons (#8), Josh Rosen (#10)
Tom Telesco (2013-2023) Chargers
The Chargers seem to have an identity as a team that feels like it should be doing more. Telesco had chances to build the team, but ultimately he couldn’t get them over the hump.
Key Selection Ranges: 4/19/23 with 19,406 points in premium picks (1,764 per year) over his 11-year career.
Record: 84-95 (.47 win) in the regular regular season, 2-3 in the playoffs
Key Picks: Joey Bosa (#3), Justin Herbert (#6), Mike Willaims (#7), and DJ Fluker (#11)
Mike Brown (2016-present) Bengals
It’s difficult to know what to do with an owner-manager like Brown, so in the end I simply settled for taking a snapshot of the last ten years (2016-2025) for which we know the results, but it’s worth noting that the team would once again have picked in the top eleven in 2026 had they not traded #10 for Dexter Lawrence.
Key Selection Ranges: 4/15/31 with 18,080 points in premium picks (1,808 per year) over the last ten years
Record: 71-91-2 in the regular season (.44 win), but 5-2 in the playoffs
Key Picks: Joe Burrow (#1), Ja’Marr Chase (#5), John Ross (#9), and Jonah Williams (#11)
Terry Fontenot (2021-2025) Falcons
Fontenot struggled over his five years, forcing ownership to bring in primary executive Matt Ryan to right the ship. He is one of only three on this list not to manage a playoff win, and he employed another.
Key Selection Ranges: 4/10/17 with 11,361 points in premium picks (2,272 per year) over five years.
Record: 37-48 (.32 win) in the regular season, no playoff appearances
Key Picks: Kyle Pitts (#4), Drake London (#8), Bijan Robinson (#8), and Michael Penix (#8)
Ryan Poles (2022-present) Bears
Considered next to this group of his peers, Poles is in fact in the middle of his turnaround. Ten different general managers in the era of the CBA have had comparable draft choices available to them at the top, his actual rank among this group will probably be determined over the next few years.
Key Selection Ranges: 4/9/17 with 11,034 points in premium picks (2,206 per year) spent over five years. This includes the #32 pick traded for Chase Claypool, which is probably unfair of me. It still feels “correct”, however.
Record: 26-42 (.38 win) in the regular season, 1-1 in the playoffs
Key Picks: Caleb Williams (#1), Rome Odunze (#9), Darnell Wright (#10), and Colston Loveland (#10).
John Lynch (2017-present) 49ers
Proof that having a number of premium picks is possible even for successful general managers, Lynch’s numbers benefit from Lance simply being considered the #2 overall pick and excluding trade information. Lynch has actually made more elite selections than Poles. However, four of those came within his first five years as GM.
Key Selection Ranges: 5/13/24 with 16,755 in premium picks (1,676 per year) over his 10-year career.
Record: 82-67 (.55 win) regular season record, 9-5 playoffs
Key Picks: Trey Lance (#2), Nick Bosa (#3), Soloman Thomas (#3), Mike McGlinchey (#9), and Mykel Williams (#11).
Ryan Pace (2015-2021) Bears
Despite having a well-earned reputation for trading away picks, Pace made five selections in the top eleven, and never made a first-round pick out of this range. He is one of only three GMs on this list without a playoff win–and he worked for one of the others.
Key Selection Ranges: 5/11/16 with 12,370 points in premium picks (1,767 per year) over his 7-year career.
Record: 48-65 (.42 win) in the regular season, 0-2 in the playoffs
Key Picks: Mitch Trubisky (#2), Kevin White (#7), Roquan Smith (#8), Leonard Floyd (#9), and Justin Fields (#11)
Joe Douglas (2019-2024) Jets
Douglas is only the third GM on this list without a playoff win, and he had the most to work with in terms of premium selection and year-to-year value. However, his team simply struggled despite accumulating a few star players.
Key Selection Ranges: 5/11/16 with 14,707 premium picks (2,451 per year) over his 6-year career.
Record: 32-68 (.32 win) in the regular season, no playoff appearances
Key Picks: Zach Wilson (#2), Quinnen Williams (#3), Sauce Gardner (#4), Garrett Wilson (#10), and Mekhi Beckton (#11).
David Caldwell (2013-2020) Jaguars
Caldwell had more opportunity than any GM in this group by virtually every conceivable measure. More elite picks, more total value, and more year-to-year value. However, despite one playoff run, he actually has the worst record of all of these GMs (which explains the high selections, after all). However, the team clearly had little to show for all of that potential investment.
Key Selection Ranges: 7/16/27 with 20,930 in premium picks (2,616 per year) over his 8-year career
Record: 37-91 (.29 win), 2-1 in the playoffs
Key Picks: Luke Joeckel (#2), Blake Bortles (#3), Dante Fowler (#3), Leonard Fournette (#4), Jalen Ramsey (#5), Josh Hines-Allen (7), C.J. Henderson (#9)
Summary
Ultimately, the GMs on this list include a handful of truly successful executives and a number of managers who simply could not deliver on the needed change. Certainly there is no evidence here that having a high draft position in multiple years guarantees success. Instead, this should serve as a reminder that teams do get stuck in a pattern of repeatedly drafting high, and what they do with those selections is only part of the puzzle on how they get out of that position.
