Earlier this week, we published our latest SB Nation Reacts survey, sponsored by the folks over at FanDuel Sportsbook, asking Commanders fans two questions about leading touchdown scorers in 2026.
The past is prologue
It is a maxim that past results are the best predictor of future results, and this week, Hogs Haven readers indicated that they are expecting the Commanders 2026 offense, which has been re-tooled with a new coordinator, new OL coach, new starting center, new receiving tight end — and the possible addition
of highly drafted players at the RB or WR positions — to look (in one respect, at least) very much like it has in the recent past.
Bill will be the top scorer on the ground
In 2025, Bill Croskey-Merritt ran the ball into the end zone 8 times — more than anyone else on the Commanders team — with Chris Rodriguez, who is now a Jacksonville Jaguar, in second place with 6 rushing TDs.
This week, Hogs Haven readers predicted that, choosing from a list of current players, Croskey-Merritt will repeat as the team’s most prolific running-game TD-scorer.
The bet appears to be a strong one aside from one or two possible scenarios that could occur if the Commanders draft an elite lead back (read: Jeremiyah Love) who sidelines No. 22 so completely that either Jayden Daniels or Rachaad White end up with more rushing TDs than Bill, or if the team drafts a bruiser to run between the tackles who (to use a bit of fantasy parlance) ‘vultures’ enough goal-line TDs to drop Bill’s total below that of Daniels.
Is Love really all we need?
While the first scenario seems the more realistic of the two, there is certainly enough argument about the positional value at running back to make it highly questionable that the Commanders, who currently hold the 7th pick in the draft and who badly need a talented wide receiver to pair with Terry McLaurin, will end up being the the one team out of 32 to draft the RB out of Notre Dame later this month. In other words, Bill Croskey-Merritt as Washington’s leading TD-scorer on the ground in 2026 seems like a pretty reasonable bet.
Terry will return to health
In 2024, Terry McLaurin had a career-year when it comes to scoring. He led all Washington pass-catchers in a prolific scoring offense by hauling in 13 receiving touchdowns (and was a few inside-the-5-yard-line tackles away from having even more). That season, Zach Ertz (4), Olamide Zaccheaus (3) and Jamison Crowder (2) combined for fewer receiving scores than Scary Terry alone.
But ‘24 was something of an outlier for Terry; his next-highest TD production was in his rookie season (2019), when he accounted for 7 receiving TDs. In the four seasons from 2020 to 2023, he scored either 4 or 5 times per season, and last year (2025), Terry had a career low of 3 receiving TDs.
Of course, in ‘25, Terry played in just 10 games (the only time in his career he missed more than 2 games in a season) and was targeted just 60 times — the only time in his career with less than 90 targets in a season, and the only time since his rookie year with less than 117.
So, the bet on Terry seems to be twofold. First is the bet that, at the age of 31, he will be much healthier this season. Second is that he will return to the production he enjoyed in 2019, with Scott Turner as OC and mostly Case Keenum & Dwayne Haskins throwing the ball, and 2024, with Kliff Kingsbury as OC and rookie Jayden Daniels as the primary passer.
On its surface, the bet seems to be against Terry having the kind of TD production that he has produced in 5 of his 7 career seasons, when he caught a total of 21 touchdown passes, averaging just over 4 TDs per season, but looking a bit deeper, even Terry’s more typical production of 4 or 5 TDs in a healthy season might do the trick.
That rate would eclipse the best-ever season from new TE Chig Okonkwo (3 TDs as a rookie), Trey Burks (2 TDs in 4 seasons), Luke McCaffrey (3 in 2025), and Jaylin Lane (who has yet to record a receiving touchdown). Only Rachaad White, among the players listed in our poll, has recorded more than 4 receiving TDs in a season, which he has (so far) done just once, catching 6 of them in 2024.
So, even if the Commanders draft or sign a stud WR to pair with Terry, as long as No. 17 stays healthy and neither Okonkwo or any of the other wide receivers achieves a new career single-season high, it seems a good bet that McLaurin will be the most productive receiving scoring threat in 2026 among players currently on the roster.
Everything old is new again
Even with a new-look offense under new offensive coordinator David Blough, and even if the Commanders add talent at RB and WR in the draft, unless the team selects Jeremiyah Love, it feels like a good bet to think that Bill Croskey-Merritt will lead the team in rushing scores, and that Terry will out-produce everyone currently on the Commanders roster when it comes to receiving scores. That would be consistent with each player’s production in his most recent healthy NFL season.
Of course, 22% of respondents in our survey pointed to Chig Okonkwo, who will be working with a quarterback with a demonstrated love of tight ends, to out-produce Terry in ’26. Maybe that will happen, though it will almost certainly require Okonkwo to at least double the previous best single-season TD production of his career. Zach Ertz’ 7 touchdown catches in ‘24, the most of his career outside of 2017-18, argue that Chig could achieve that kind of scoring production with Jayden Daniels throwing the ball.
Even more respondents — 30% — are betting on Rachaad White to repeat what he accomplished in 2023, when he led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in rushing TDs, by leading all current Washington players in 2026 rushing scores. While that feels like it would require an unusual set of circumstances, I suppose it could come to pass.
However it all gets put together, all Commanders fans will certainly be hoping to see the Commanders return to the top-5 scoring offense that Washington fielded in ‘24 under the leadership of a healthy Jayden Daniels, whoever is scoring the touchdowns.
Reacts bonus results
- Asked, this week, whether their teams should draft QB Ty Simpson, only 38% of Jets fans said ‘yes’, compared to a ‘yes’ vote from 69% of Cardinals fans.
- Asked to predict the number of wins in 2026, 84% of Cowboys fans predicted a winning season.
