The Los Angeles Rams’ path to NFC supremacy is opening up quite nicely, as several teams are expected to regress in 2026. From the Bears’ unsustainable late-game magic to the Seahawks’ loss of key personnel in free agency, things are setting up for the Rams to take control of the conference, assuming L.A. doesn’t join them in the regression department.
Here are four regression candidates in the NFC ahead of the 2026 season.
Chicago Bears
The Bears were doubted all last season, en route to the NFC North crown and
a near trip to Seattle for the NFC Championship game. Things will be much tougher in the Windy City this season, as Chicago faces the hardest strength of schedule entering the 2026 campaign.
Ben Johnson’s squad is the top regression candidate in the league. The reason being that Da Bears didn’t show up in many games until the final minutes.
Seven of the team’s 12 wins came in games where they trailed in the final two minutes, the most by any team since the AFL/NFL merger. WOW, that is both incredible and incredibly lucky.
On paper, Chicago has a very good team that’ll go into this season with confidence after winning their first playoff game in 15 years. However, teams that rely on the comeback win have trouble replicating that success consistently, so no one should be surprised if the Bears struggle to pull out the games they were winning in ‘25.
Seattle Seahawks
The cost of being the defending Super Bowl champions.
This offseason was going to sting a bit for the Seahawks, and it’s proven to have done exactly that. Among the team’s free agent losses are:
- Safety Coby Bryant (Bears)
- Linebacker Boye Mafe (Bengals)
- Running back Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)
- Cornerback Riq Woolen (Eagles)
Now, this is not to say that Seattle is going to fall off the face of the earth — they won’t. They have too good a roster to be anything less than a championship contender. Simply put, those departures are going to hurt, and asking for a second straight 14-win year is a tall ask.
Seattle remains the class of the NFC and will be the team to beat entering this season. They’re in for a bumpier ride if they hope to repeat.
San Francisco 49ers
The Whiners are on this list because they suck and I hate ‘em.
Sigh
I was told to write more here, so I guess I will.
Truthfully, the 49ers had an impressive season despite all the injuries they suffered throughout the year … unfortunately, a common theme in the Bay Area. Somehow, the team finished with 12 wins and knocked off the defending champions.
San Francisco had the easiest strength of schedule in 2025, and is pretty middle of the pack with the 18th-toughest ahead of this season. The Niners are a regression candidate after a relatively quiet offseason. Adding the injury-prone, aging Mike Evans is a risky move that made zero sense, considering the team had prioritized youth. SF also made some questionable choices in the draft.
The 49ers were fortunate to have gotten as far as they did with an injured supporting cast. While the team still has a lighter schedule in 2026, they won’t benefit from the NFL’s easiest slate this time around.
Green Bay Packers
How is it possible for a team that had lost five straight to end the season to end up on a list like this? Well, by doing next to nothing this offseason to improve a roster that requires some much-needed juice.
Green Bay began the year 9-3-1 before completely choking away the division lead — not to mention a couple of sizable leads — to the hated rival Bears. Part of the reason was due to Micah Parsons tearing his ACL down the stretch. Yet what should’ve been a quality defense faltered more than it had at any point during the year without the All-Pro in the lineup.
Look, the Packers are committed to mediocrity by extending Matt LaFleur, whose teams cannot win the big games to save their lives. There wasn’t a suitable upgrade for LaFleur on the market, and let’s be real, Green Bay wouldn’t have gotten rid of him even if they finished with the top overall pick.
How the Packers finished 2025 is more likely closer to who they are as a team. Parsons will only do so much to save them, as the team will likely do enough to remain in playoff contention, but don’t expect them to do anything if they get there.
