The Hawkeyes are officially riding a heater over the last couple of weeks. Iowa is 2-0 since their Minnesota debacle, outscoring Wisconsin and Northwestern a combined 54-10.
Now they return to Kinnick looking to enter the final stretch of the season with some serious momentum. The Hawkeyes are big home favorites over the Purdue Boilermakers. FanDuel Sportsbook opened with Iowa favored by 17.5 points with an over/under of 47.5 total points. That sets an implied final of Iowa 32.5, Purdue 15.
Here at
The Pants, we’re feeling unusually optimistic about this one. Everyone is taking Iowa to win outright and nobody expects this to be inside of double digits. On the whole, we’re calling for a final score of Iowa 33.5, Purdue 13. That puts on Iowa giving the points and just on the under.
As a quick reminder, a week ago we called for a final of 24.2, Northwestern 21.7, straddling the fence on the spread and taking the over after it was pushed lower with Northwestern’s injury issues. Staying away on the spread meant we didn’t go 0-2, but we did miss on the over/under, pushing us even further into the red on the year. We’re now 4-12 on the season. My goodness how are we not out on the streets?
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for tomorrow’s matchup.
Matt Reisener
As impossible as it may have seemed after Iowa’s embarrassing loss to Minnesota, the Hawkeyes are mounting a credible case for inclusion in the College Football Playoff. A loss this weekend to Purdue would immediately dash those hopes. The Boilermakers have a dangerous passing game led by quarterback Ryan Browne and one of the conference’s best receivers in Assad Waseem. As great as Iowa’s defense has been this season, they have been susceptible to breakdowns on the back end at times. If Purdue can pull off a few big plays downfield early and silence the home crowd, they could make this a competitive game.
Fortunately for Iowa, the Boilermaker defense is atrocious. Purdue ranks 123rd out of 138th in scoring defense, has only recorded eleven sacks through nine games, and opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 152.33 against the Boilers this year. Things aren’t much better on the ground, where Purdue is allowing opposing backs to rush for over five yards per carry. Barring a Minnesota-level offensive implosion from the Hawkeyes, it’s hard to imagine Purdue getting enough stops to keep pace with an Iowa team that has everything to play for.
Iowa 35, Purdue 14
HeavyMetalLawyer
It’s everyone’s favorite time to hate. OMHR comes to Kinnick stadium for a night game this Saturday. The forecast is calling for a cold one with temperatures expected to dip below freezing by the time the game finishes up. Not unexpected for this time of year but the cold really snuck up on me… it feels like just a few weeks ago it was warm enough to be outside with a t-shirt on.
I think this game has the potential to be a game where Iowa’s offense finds the end zone early and often. There is also some potential for a slog. I’ve seen this movie before – Iowa is a double digit favorite at home against an atrocious defense yet still struggles to score.
I’ve been unusually pessimistic this year and I remain skeptical that anything the Hawkeyes can do will set them up for a playoff berth this year. That said, as far as this week I just don’t see this Purdue team coming away with a win. The Hawkeyes have gotten right since Minnesota and I think they continue to do enough to win this game. The offense has been good enough the last two weeks to weather a few fluky plays.
More importantly though – Phil Parker’s defense is about as good as it’s ever been. Did you all realize that the Hawkeyes are 3rd in all of college football in scoring defense (number one among all P4 teams)? They also rank 9th in yards allowed per game. For all the question marks on the defensive line and secondary coming into this season, the Hawks are about as good as they’ve ever been on that side of the ball. Given that Purdue does not have an elite offense (ranked outside the top 50), I just don’t think they are going to be able to move the ball on this defense on a cold night in front of a hostile crowd.
Iowa 31, Purdue 7
GlendaleHawk
As both Matt and HML have noted, Purdue’s defense is both very bad and currently leaderless (with Barry Odom not even planning to tell anyone who is calling the defense until after the game). A ship with a bad rudder and no one at the helm is in a bad situation, and that is where OMHR’s defense finds itself as they make the trip to Iowa City for a night game in November.
Iowa’s offense was great against Wisconsin but stalled a bit after a fast start against Northwestern, so we’re again left to wonder which version of the Iowa offense will show up and how long will the preferred version stick around? I’m quite confident that Tim Lester will have a good game plan, but there’ve definitely been some execution issues that this (young) unit hasn’t quite cleaned up. Two fumbles (thankfully only one of which was lost), a pick (still not sure if that was a bad throw or a miscommunication on the route) and at least one other bad pass that could have been picked (all of us here at the Pants want to extend our heartfelt gratitude to TD14 for, well, just being TD14).
That being said, it’s gonna be cold Saturday evening, which means that Iowa is going to be looking to run the ball as much as possible and Purdue is, fortunately, one of the worst teams in the B18 at defending the run (only Rutgers is worse). They’re allowing nearly 4 yards per attempt (good for 109th in the country) while Iowa is averaging 7+ yards per attempt (15th in the country). That’s a great sign to me that LJ Phillips, Xavier Williams, and Braeden Jackson should have a very good game on Saturday (and I won’t be surprised to see more of that TD14 end around action or some QB draws). Provided that we can get the ball safety issues under control, this could be another game with 250+ yards on the ground and several rushing TDs. If Iowa shows up ready to pound the rock, this game could be over by the end of the 3rd quarter.
Purdue has a dangerous offense, but they’re also allowing nearly 3 sacks a game against a defense that’s averaging 3+ sacks a game. Browne is good, he might even be the best QB named Browne playing on Saturday night, but he’s going to need protection and I don’t see this Purdue OL getting him anywhere near the time he’ll need to pull off an upset win.
Iowa 34, Purdue 10
David Fidler
Iowa should handle Purdue, but it might not be in the typical way. Purdue should be able to score some points on Iowa which means Iowa will have to put more points on Purdue. The Hawks should be able to do this because the Boilers have a terrible defense.
My biggest concern isn’t the Boilers. My concern is that Ferentz gets all Ferentz-y and comes out of the half up by two touchdowns, takes his foot off the gas and tries to salt the game away. He can’t afford to do this because Purdue can score and score quickly and because whatever chances Iowa has to make the Playoffs hinge very much on style points. Style points will be tougher to come by against Illinois and Nebraska. This is the opportunity to earn them.
Iowa 38, Purdue 17
JPinIC
Well, we’re two games and a pair of CFP rankings shows into my thesis that this season is here solely to inflict as much emotional damage on Hawkeye fans as possible so why stop now. Purdue’s defense is, in a word, bad. Iowa’s offense is not good, but they certainly have seemed to find a way to make some things happening, even if it is largely on the scripted stuff. And on the flip side, the Iowa defense just continues to be elite.
I think we see Phil Parker pull another one of his anaconda games out, slowly suffocating Purdue until they collapse to turnover and sack in the second half. Meanwhile, Iowa should be able to run the ball and provided Hank Brown doesn’t go full Minnesota game, they should be able to move the ball and put up points.
Two more weeks of building our hopes up only to be crushed on Selection Sunday, or whatever we get for the CFP.
Iowa 30, Purdue 13
Braedan Garrett
Highly ranked Iowa as a double digit favorite over Purdue is a recipe for a big win right? When it comes to this series I’m not assuming anything. Yes, Iowa is the better team this year, but that has been the case in years past and it doesn’t always translate to a comfortable win, or a win at all.
The Boilermakers are no slouch on offense, with QB Ryan Browne one of the nation’s leaders in passing yards and Minnesota transfer running back Fame Ijeboi has found the end zone ten times. When Purdue’s offense is on the field it’ll be strength vs. strength. It won’t be that way when their defense is in as Purdue enters this game without their defensive coordinator and giving up square miles to opposing offenses. Tim Lester and the Hawkeye offense should have plenty of success if they play smart and protect the ball.
With the Hawkeyes still in the playoff picture but with a relatively softer resume, they need that big win this weekend. Kirk talks about not playing for style points he’ll need to if he wants to his team stay in the conversation.
Iowa 33, Purdue 17
So there you have it, Iowa gets over its struggles covering as big favorites in November and we all enjoy a relaxing night under the Kinnick lights. Pay no mind to our miserable track record picking these games – this time we’re right!
How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those score predictions!
