A few weeks into the 2025 WNBA season, we seemed fated for a rematch of the 2024 WNBA Finals, as the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty looked liked the clear class of the league. After the All-Star break,
the resurgent Las Vegas Aces supplanted the Liberty as the Lynx’s surefire Finals opponent.
And now? Should we be confident that the Aces, holding a 2-1 semifinal series lead over the Indiana Fever, will earn that Finals berth, with Phoenix Mercury, up 2-1 on the Lynx in their series, on the opposite side? Or, will more developments that upend expectations occur?
Something, at least, will be decided on Sunday when the No. 2-seed Aces meet the No. 6-seed Fever in Indiana (3 p.m. ET, ABC) and the No. 1-seed Lynx take on the No. 4-seed Mercury in Phoenix (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). Will the Aces and Mercury prevail to set the stage for the first-ever best-of-seven WNBA Finals? Can the Fever and Lynx keep their championship hopes alive?
One thing we know for certain is that neither Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve nor MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier will be participating in the Lynx’s (potential) last stand. Reeve has been suspended for Game 4, a punishment assessed by the league for her comportment towards officials both during and after Friday night’s Game 3. Reeve’s frustrations boiled over after Collier was injured late in the game. Despite Reeve’s protestations, Alyssa Thomas’ swipe, which resulted in her and Collier knocking knees in a manner that caused Collier’s ankle to turn, was not beyond the bounds of fair play; it just resulted in an unfortunate injury for her star.
Without Collier, Minnesota will need an under-the-radar savior to emerge and extend their season. The three other teams taking the floor on Sunday likewise will require contributions from an underrated hero to achieve their desired results. So, who are four players who could make or break Game 4 for their team?
Las Vegas Aces: NaLyssa Smith
NaLyssa Smith has found new life with the Aces, while also giving the Aces new life.
The midseason acquisition of the former No. 2 overall pick by the Fever has proven to be the perfect frontcourt complement to A’ja Wilson, thriving as a “star in her role” alongside the now four-time MVP. Smith has expressed her appreciation for how Wilson’s embrace and encouragement has revived her love for the game.
And if the Aces punch their Finals ticket on Sunday, expect Wilson to reciprocate with more appreciation for Smith. It’s been a below-her-sky-high-standard series for Wilson, with Aliyah Boston using her South Carolina secrets (and some swinging elbows) to limit Wilson’s offensive efficiency. In the Aces’ two series wins, Smith has stepped up as secondary source of frontcourt production, going a combined 15-for-22 for 34 points in Games 2 and 3. She also grabbed 11 boards, including four offensive.
Obviously, the Aces would love for Wilson to author an M’V4 exclamation point on Sunday, eliminating Indy with the kind of performance that earned her the league’s highest individual honor for a record fourth time. But if the Aces are to advance despite another off afternoon from A’ja, look for Lyss to be a big reason why.
Indiana Fever: Natasha Howard
Indiana has their own underrated frontcourt player in Natasha Howard.
Overlooked in the attention given to Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, the Fever actually have been at their best in the playoffs when Howard is on the court, outscoring their opponents by 15 points. Since her stinker in the first-round opener, she’s been an efficient, albeit infrequent, offensive option for Indiana. Playing less than 20 minutes per game, Howard has averaged just five shot attempts, despite converting 60 percent of them.
Can the Fever find a way to get her more involved? Her production has been limited due to Indiana’s lack of an elite offensive initiator who is capable of getting her the ball in favorable situations. That’s left Howard scraping for her own opportunities, evidenced by her seven offensive boards in the semifinals. She has corralled more than 12 percent of available offensive boards in her minutes, while sporting an overall rebounding percent that is trending near 20 percent.
Howard, of course, has shown that she can power the Fever to pivotal wins. She has the Commissioner’s Cup MVP trophy to prove it. She also has three championship rings, giving her a level of playoff experience that further suggests she needs to be more featured for Fever.
Minnesota Lynx: Jessica Shepard
During the regular season, Collier missed seven-straight games with a sprained ankle. The league-leading Lynx, however, kept reeling off wins, as Jessica Shepard entered the starting lineup in Collier’s stead. A triple-double—in fact, the fastest triple-double in league history—was the apex of that stretch of extended opportunity for Shepard.
She might need to replicate that performance for Lynx to force a Game 5 back in Minneapolis.
So far, Shepard has seen her role shrink in the playoffs. In the semifinals, she’s been quiet in her 11.5 minutes per game, unable to show off the strengths that made her a valuable sub and fill-in starter during the regular season. An efficient scorer and effective rebounder, she has shot 40 percent from the field and rebounded 13.4 percent of available misses against the Mercury; her season-long marks were 63.8 percent and 17.7 percent.
Like much of Minnesota, she has been unable to match Phoenix’s physicality. However, tapping into Shepard’s potential as an offensive hub—something she demonstrated with her 10-assist triple-double—could activate her in alternative ways and allow her to increase her impact on the game. It would be quite the surprise if Shepard became the first player in this series to register a triple-double. But for the Lynx faithful, it would be a pleasant one that surely would send this series to a fifth game.
Phoenix Mercury: DeWanna Bonner
Phoenix’s season-long formula has worked in their two semifinal wins, as their “Big 3” of Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper has lived up to the moniker with elite production while role players, especially two-time champ Sami Whitcomb, have stepped up at key moments.
For the Mercury to execute their vision in Game 4 and earn the organization a trip to the Finals, their other two-time title winner, DeWanna Bonner, might need to unleash a throwback performance. She’s come up empty on momentum-swinging shots in the semifinals so far, scoring a total of eight point as she has shot 15 percent from their field, making no 3-pointers. It’s not been all bad for Bonner, as her 6.7 boards per game have contributed to Phoenix’s advantage on the glass.
And despite her bucket-getting drought, Minnesota is familiar with the danger of playoff DB. In 2023 as member of the Connecticut Sun, she dropped six 3s and 24 points on the Lynx in a first-round game. In last year’s five-game second-round series between Connecticut and Minnesota, she shot almost 40 percent from 3 and averaged 15 points per game.
The Mercury have shown that they can survive, and even thrive, without game-to-game scoring consistency from Bonner. But, the perfect way to finish off the league-best Lynx in four games would be a burst of production from one of the most accomplished players in WNBA playoff history.
Game information
No. 2-seed Las Vegas Aces (2-1) vs. No. 6-seed Indiana Fever (1-2)
- When: Sunday, Sept. 28 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
- How to watch: ABC
No. 1-seed Minnesota Lynx (1-2) vs. No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury (2-1)
- When: Sunday, Sept. 28 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: PHX Arena in Phoenix, AZ
- How to watch: ESPN
