The Diamondbacks took two out of three against the Reds the hard way, including a last minute come from behind win and a loss where they gave up 11 runs, losing two pitchers in the aftermath. But they also got Drey Jameson back, and I for one still believe there’s hope he’ll be a productive big leaguer. And nothing else of any importance happened, once again.
The Cubs at one point looked like they were going to run away with the first Wild Card, and they are still cruising to the post season, no doubt.
However, that seeding is suddenly in question given the meteoric rise of the Philadelphia Phillies. At one point they were as up by as much as seven games, but that’s shrunk down to four and the Phillies don’t seem to want to stop winning. A strong series by the Diamondbacks here and their playoff picture could look drastically different.
Game 1 — 8/24, 6:40 PM: Merrill Kelly (-0.4 bWAR, 8-11, 5.37 ERA/79 ERA+, 1.51 WHIP) vs. Kevin Gausman (0.9 bWAR, 6-11, 4.58 ERA/96 ERA+, 1.29 WHIP)
It takes a certain level of skill to be both the best free agent signing a General Manager has had, and also simultaneously be the worst. Merrill Kelly is giving it his best effort, though. He’s got a ways to go before he matches the likes of Madision Bumgarner and Jordan Montgomery, but he’s well on his way. In his last five starts, he has given up five or more runs three times, including giving up six in each of his last two starts. His walks have jumped, his strike outs are down, and innings pitched is also trending down a bit as well. All in all, not a good time for Kelly recently.
Gausman is one of the Cubs deadline acquisitions this year, and it’s been a mixed bag. First time out, he went seven innings, only gave up two runs, it was great. The next two starts… not so much. He didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in either game. That first short start he gave up six runs in route to a 7-0 Cubs loss to the Nationals. The second, he kept the White Sox to three runs, but still couldn’t get past 4.1 inning. The rest of the season, he’s been solid, even if it’s a bit of a down year compared to what he normally throws. The Diamondbacks shouldn’t go into the game expecting a pushover.
Game 2 — 8/25, 6:40 PM: Brandon Pfaadt (1.6 bWAR, 7-1, 3.39 ERA/125 ERA+, 1.13 WHIP) vs. Clay Holmes (2.2 bWAR, 5-6, 2.49 ERA/165 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP)
Pfaadt was on a killer run leading up to his last start, but definitely hit a road block. A 5.1 inning, five run outing is a hell of a way to end a scoreless streak and that’s exactly what he did. Hopefully it’s not a sign of things to come and Pfaadt will pick back up where he left off.
A what-could-have-been matchup. Of course the Diamondbacks were in on Clay Holmes until the very end until the Mets decided to go a different direction. It’s worked out about as well for the Cubs as we would have hoped it to work out for us. He is sitting at a 2.81 ERA versus the 2.39 he put up with the Mets. Nothing crazy different there. To be noted, his FIP with the Mets was 3.20 and it’s now 4.21 with the Cubs. Looking back at his career, typically his FIP and ERA are decently aligned, so there may be room for the Diamondbacks offense to make some noise and regression.
Game 3 — 8/26, 12:40 PM: Eduardo Rodriguez (4.9 bWAR, 13-4, 2.61 ERA/162 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Matthew Boyd (0.3 bWAR, 8-2, 4.15 ERA/98 ERA+, 1.24 WHIP)
Rodriguez continues his Cy Young caliber season. He wasn’t scored upon against the Reds when arguably they needed a stopper more than anything. Before that, he held the Braves and Dodgers, two very potent offenses of course, to just two runs apiece. He continues to be the foundation of the Diamondbacks starting rotation this season, and no reason to assume that won’t continue.
Boyd missed about six weeks earlier this season after he, and I’m not kidding, bent down to pick up his kid’s Legos and tore the meniscus in his left knee. He did clarify later that he believed he had already been dealing with a torn meniscus, but that specific motion is what finished the job, but still, not something to look forward to, as I find myself ten months past my thirtieth birthday. Anyway, he’s been aggressively fine for the Cubs, some good games, some not so good, but overall nothing terrible or spectacular.
Conclusion
Like I said in the last series preview, they’re all must wins until further notice. There are only 32 games left, and to realistically have a shot at the playoffs, they’ll need to get to 88+ wins. That means going no worse than 19-13 the rest of the way. Basically, they need to win every series, with maybe one mulligan mixed in there. The Cubs are another good team, no way around that one, but especially since they have both Pfaadt and E-Rod going for them this series, I think they have a chance. And hey, maybe Kelly remembers how to pitch and they can even sneak in a sweep. But a series win is probably our best outcome.
