On Saturday, the Royals traded outfielder Lane Thomas and pitcher Bailey Falter to the Atlanta Braves for two minor league pitchers – Lucas Braun and Carter Holton. Now that we’ve had some time to digest the deal, how did the Royals make out?
Thomas signed a one-year, $5.25 million deal with Kansas City before the year hoping he would bounce back after being hurt much of the last two seasons. While he didn’t produce the power he did in 2023, when he hit 28 home runs, he became a steady bat. He got
off to a slow start, but came around in the summer, hitting nine home runs in 52 games since June 1. Overall, Thomas hit .232/.326/.393 with 10 home runs in 97 games, but excelled against lefties, hitting .263/.370/.430.
The value of “rentals”, players whose contract is up at the end of the season, is always a bit limited. But the market for right-handed outfielders is a seller’s market. The number of right-handed hitters is at its lowest point in at least five decades. The quality of right-handed hitters has declined as well, leaving a market where demand outstrips supply. The Rangers, Phillies, and Yankees are just some of the teams reportedly interested in adding a right-handed bat.
Lucas Braun was drafted in the 6th round of the 2023 draft by the Braves after his senior year at Cal State-Northridge. He has put up very good numbers at each level, leading him to be ranked the #8 prospect in the Braves system before the season by MLB Pipeline. Braun is a finesse righty with a deep arsenal of six pitches who relies on deception more than velocity to get hitters out, not unlike Seth Lugo. MLB Pipeline writes he is a “kitchen sink” starter, who will throw the book at hitters.
His fastball sits at around 92 mph and tops out at 96, but he’ll throw both a four-seamer with armside run and a two-seamer with sink that he added at the end of 2024. He throws his low-80s slider a lot, and misses bats with it, while also folding in an upper-70s curve and mid-80s changeup. He started to incorporate an upper-80s cutter in 2025 to give a harder fastball-esque look for left-handed hitters, and it was at the top of his usage chart at Triple-A in 2026 at the time of the trade.
Baseball America ranked him #7 in the system, because of his plus command. He now ranks #11 in the Royals’ system.
Nothing Braun throws is plus. Instead, he relies on his advanced control and command—the best in the system—and an ability to mix and match. Braun’s fastball command has always been a strength, and his career 6.7% walk rate points to above-average control.
Brendan Gawlowski at FanGraphs ranked him #22 in the system, praising his funky delivery and athleticism, but raising questions about his stuff.
All of those factors are going to be important to maintain because Braun’s stuff is just okay. He works with both fastballs and sits in the low 90s with unremarkable shape. He has the full package of secondaries, and while the variety gives him a lot of ways to attack, he doesn’t have an out pitch. The ceiling is as a sum-of-his-parts no. 5, while the median projection is a length guy who can flex in and out of the rotation as needed.
Braun began this season at Double-A, where he posted a 3.20 ERA with strong strikeout and walk numbers in 50.2 innings. They moved him up to Triple-A, where he posted a 3.92 ERA in 43.2 innings, but with a very low strikeout rate of 16 percent. Dave Andrews of FanGraphs writes, that Braun has an “intriguingly compact delivery that gives him an extremely low release point.”
He adds, “Will Braun’s funk be enough to keep fooling major leaguers? The best projections say yes, and see him as a future no. 4 starter.”
Carter Holton pitched at Vanderbilt, where he had a 29 percent strikeout rate but a high ERA, and he was ranked #67 going into the draft by Baseball America. They wrote that while the lefty “might not have a single overwhelming pitch, he has a solid track record as a starter in the best conference in the country, a deep pitch mix and solid-average control of a deep arsenal.” The Braves took him in the second round, but after one pro start he needed Tommy John surgery, and he missed the entire 2025 season.
FanGraphs ranked him #19 in the Braves farm system, while he went unranked by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. Gawlowski wrote that Holton’s delivery is “not especially loose, and the effort level often pushes him off balance toward third base” and that it “has a few relief markers in it.” Holton returned this year and has posted a 5.08 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 33.2 innings at Low-A at the age of 23. Andrews writes that Holton is a bit undersized, with a fastball that sits 92-94 mph with “a herky-jerky delivery and an over-the-top release point” and a slider as his signature pitch.
The Royals also threw in Bailey Falter, who has negative trade value due to his poor performance and $3.6 million contract for 2026. Including him in the trade saves the Royals some money, but also theoretically reduced their trade return since they received salary relief instead of talent.
You also have to wonder if the Royals boxed themselves into a corner by requiring the return include MLB-ready pitching. The pitching rotation is running on fumes right now, with ten pitchers currently on the Injured List, including All-Stars Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans, and Carlos Estévez. J.J. Picollo seems fixated on the idea that the team can be competitive in 2027, so adding MLB-ready players that can contribute soon is imperative. Many other teams this far back in the standings would focus on getting the best talent in return, regardless of how far away the player is from big league action.
Still, this seems like a pretty good return for two months of Thomas. Braun doesn’t have loud stuff, but Lugo could be a good example for him to follow. The bloom has come off the rose for Brian Sweeney this year, but Braun could be an interesting project for him. He turns 25 by the end of the month, so he should be ready to contribute at the big league level soon. Holton is putting up underwhelming numbers at a low level, but oftentimes pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery don’t really look fully healthy until a full year after their recovery. Holton’s advanced age will mean he needs to start producing very quickly if he’s going to be a factor, and it seems like it will likely come out of the bullpen.
In a vacuum, these aren’t the kind of moves that get you back to contention, but they are the necessary trades that are required to build depth. But rebuilding a contender isn’t about hitting one grand slam at the deadline, it’s about accumulating enough useful talent that a few players exceed expectations. Braun has a realistic path to helping the Royals’ rotation as soon as next season, while Holton remains a longer-term lottery ticket. That’s a worthwhile return for two months of Lane Thomas, even if it isn’t the blockbuster fans were hoping for.
