Elliot Cadeau is in the midst of his best year of college basketball. At 10.1 points per game, he’s scoring at the highest clip he has in his career thanks in part to his highest shooting percentage from three in his career (38.4 percent). Dusty May and the Michigan coaching staff have been fortunate to only have to play Cadeau just over 25 minutes per game to keep him fresh and his turnovers in check.
However, with L.J. Cason suffering a season-ending injury, that all changes.
The Wolverines continue
to have one of the most dominant frontcourts in all of college basketball in Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara. That won’t change with Cason’s injury, but what will change is what is needed from Cadeau.
Despite being the nominal backup point guard, Cason has played in 44.7 percent of Michigan’s minutes this season (18.6 minutes per game). He had the second-highest assist rate on the team (behind Cadeau) and the highest three-point shooting percentage (40.2 percent) and steal percentage (2.8 percent). Cason was more than just the backup point guard, he was Michigan’s highest usage bench player — a spark plug off the bench and a lethal three-point shooter.
Cadeau will have to pick up the slack both offensively and defensively. In Michigan’s last five games, either Cadeau or Cason has manned the point guard spot for 98 percent of Michigan possessions. May will need to quickly figure out who can fill the void when it comes to bringing the ball up the court. Otherwise, his only option would be to have Cadeau play all 40 minutes every game, which seems untenable.
I would expect Trey McKenney’s minutes to increase from 21.1 minutes per game to somewhere in the high 20s. I would also expect Cadeau’s minutes to increase from 25.4 to somewhere in the 33-35 range. Don’t count out Lendeborg bringing up the ball occasionally as well in a point forward role. While certainly not a primary ball-handler, he has proven more than capable of breaking the press.
Another concern that pops up due to Cason’s injury is Cadeau’s foul proclivity. He is committing 3.4 fouls per 40 minutes this year, and while that’s not absurdly high, it is on the higher end, especially for guards. Cadeau has picked up three or more fouls in 11 of Michigan’s games this year, including four on Friday night at Illinois. Without a true backup point guard, the more Cadeau can stay on the floor, the better. He will need to be smart defensively and not pick up unnecessary fouls, as May alluded to on Monday in his press conference.
“This will force Elliot to be much more solid with his defensive decision-making when it comes to fouling,” May said. “He doesn’t have that insurance policy named L.J. behind him anymore, because L.J. came in and carried the load in several games for our group. That’s not there anymore, but this is a great opportunity for Roddy, Trey and Nimari to play even more.”
Cadeau will also be asked to be much more of a scoring presence moving forward. Cason’s 8.4 points per game will be missed. The structure of the offense won’t change much, meaning we can expect roughly the same production out of the front court. Cadeau, Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle Jr. will be asked to pick up the scoring slack out of the backcourt.
Cason’s injury is painful for Michigan for more than a few reasons. However, it doesn’t have to be a season-defining injury. This team can still win the national title. Much of the focus has been on this Michigan front court. Without Cason, all the attention will shift to what the backcourt can and can’t do. Cadeau is now the most important player on the roster.
Cadeau could either lead the Wolverines to a national title or be the reason Michigan gets ousted by a lesser team in the NCAA Tournament. Which will it be?
