The upset of the season so far has been Auburn’s win over then No. 1 Georgia in Athens just weeks ago.
No. 10 Ole Miss now hosts No. 2 Georgia in Oxford on Saturday with both teams looking for a win to solidify not only its College Football Playoff chances but to improve its place in the SEC standings.
So what in the name of Auburn Jesus happened to have Alex Golesh victorious over Kirby Smart? And does Ole Miss have any way to produce the same results?
The biggest number that sticks out from Auburn’s
upset win is the turnover margin of +3. The Bulldogs lost a fumble and starting quarterback Gunner Stockton threw two interceptions while the Tigers didn’t register a turnover all game. This isn’t one of those rocket science concepts of the game, but extra possessions even when a team is more talented, at home, playing at night, whatever the circumstances, changes the game.
There’s bad news and then there’s more bad news when it comes to making this occur again. First off, the Rebels turnover margin for the season is like the GPA of Bluto in Animal House – zero point zero. Ole Miss hasn’t had much success in generating turnovers (12 thus far) and then it gives the ball away at the exact same rate. The Rebels are more offensively talented than the Tigers, however, so even a +1 for either team on Saturday could be the difference in the game.
Which leads to more bad news as Georgia ranks 15th in the nation in turnover margin (+0.75) and the Bulldogs have had only nine turnovers all year. Yes, taking away the Auburn disaster, Georgia has only six turnovers in its other seven football games. You can’t plan on more than maybe one fumble or interception come Saturday.
Additionally on the front of creating more possessions, Auburn went 2/2 on fourth down conversions to keep crucial drives alive. Now this is one area where I think Ole Miss is going to have to take some calculated risks against Georgia.
Ole Miss is 5/9 on fourth down conversions this season, so it is not as commonplace to see the Rebels roll the dice as it was in previous years. Pete Golding is going to have to pick his moments in this game as both coaches are likely going to play a more conservative style given the implications for the winner. Keeping the drives alive and keeping Georgia on the field will be a must have for the Rebels offense.
Lastly, Auburn’s offensive attack was not overwhelming when it shocked the college football world, but it was very balanced. The Tigers rushed for 192 yards and passed for 174 yards, and its talented and mobile QB Byrum Brown led both of those attacks. Does this sound like something Trinidad Chambliss can do? Check the Sugar Bowl highlights from last year as a reminder.
Its going to come down to Chambliss’ creative ability with the football, Ole Miss’ defense creating another possession or two, and coach Golding taking risks when needed. That’s the formula for Saturday in Oxford.
