Hello friends, It’s been a bit since I’ve been able to sit down and write a non-recap blog, life and stuff.
We just passed the quarter mark of the season, and it’s been a pretty wild ride so far. I’ve been writing
this periodically over the past week, and this paragraph has changed 4 times – and now I have entered the pit of despair after an embarrassing performance in Philly. That’s 3 straight losses, each with their own unique blend of ineptitude. While I’m not going to write some nonsense about how we’re cursed because of some mummies, maybe a quick sage of The Rock could help or an we could crowdfund an Etsy witch. Certainly won’t hurt, right?
Stop Getting Hurt
I realize the injuries have been CRAZY for us, however this is a league wide phenomenon. We are on the wrong side of it though and guys are dropping every night – Gritsyuk was seen limping around the locker room last night. Right now we are 4th in the league for injuries by cap hit:
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Go Get a New Center, Tom
The loss of Jack for 6-8 weeks and Glass for a mystery amount of time has accelerated what needed to happen in the first place, and that is acquire another productive center. We need someone who can elevate to 2C with both out, and can settle in at 3C when Jack and Glass return. And the Devils need to pull the trigger on this before every other team does, most notably Carolina who have a ton of cap space and a real need there as well. Frankly, so do half the competitive teams in the league. Lammikko is showing he is not an NHL caliber center. Glendening is replacement level as a 4th line center and is a black hole offensively which has had ripple effects on Cotter’s production. Mercer has been a somewhat adequate fill-in, but is a better suited as passenger-style wing.
I know Chris wrote about some options on Friday, but with last night’s embarrassing loss, a change is needed. We are in a dogfight in the Metro with only 8 points separating the first place Hurricanes and the last place Rangers, and 5 points separating the Devils (2nd) from the Rangers (who are in last, at the bottom, the worst team.. as a reminder).
In my opinion, a move for a center has shifted to the top of the priority list and quite honestly I don’t think we need a top 6 wing like a Kyrou or a Robertson. I’m wary of Tuch now as well primarily because of his projected 11MM+ contract ask for next year. With the emergence of Gritsyuk and the improved production of Mercer at wing, in my opinion our top 6 is set in some combination of Jack-Mercer-Gritsyuk-Timo-Nico-Bratt.
I realize the prevailing thought is plug elite player X into line with Jack and Bratt, sit back and profit. Well, it’s not a video game, and as evidenced by the lack of results with the Jack-Bratt-Timo line, is no guarantee of success. Keefe has spoken in detail about the type of player that works:
“(We) want to make sure there is not duplication in their jobs and what they are doing,” he said. “Sometimes there is duplication between Hughes and Bratt and we can’t triple it up. We have to have someone with proper spacing that is going to be around the net, and can earn the puck back.”
This is by no means an endorsement of Palat in that role, but if we are going to keep Jack and Bratt together the third player needs a more straightforward play style. Truth be told, The Jack-Mercer-Grtisyuk line might be a better line with Nico-Timo-Bratt as line 1a. But that is a story for January once we are “healthy.”
Another consideration about prioritizing a 2/3C over a top 6 wing is power play time. I have been on my soapbox about this for years, that you need to ensure elite player X is going to produce at an elite level for his elite salary – and a lot of that will come with power play time. Over the past 3 years, both Kyrou and Robertson have added around 30% of their points on the PP. This isn’t unique to them and Jack and Bratt are both around 40%. We have our top 3 forwards mostly locked into PP1 (Nico, Jack, Bratt) and the next-in-line rotation is Timo, Gritsyuk and Mercer. This doesn’t even count Noesen whose production has cratered since his return from injury with no consequential PP time.
Would this mythical elite player X slide into a spot occupied by Nico, Jack, or Bratt when we are fully healthy? Probably not, and sure PP2 would get a boost, but the TOI splits between units is still hovering around 80/20. Are we going to pay a guy 8MM+ to get :20 seconds of throw away PP time? We already have Timo in purgatory because of this exact reason and a vocal chunk of the fanbase wants him to walk the plank.
If you look around at some of the highest scoring/best teams and how their lineups are constructed, Mercer and Gritsyuk are extremely well suited to take these roles on. Look no further than Colorado, the highest scoring team int he league and far and away the class of the entire NHL, whose 5th and 6th highest scoring forwards have similar PP/G production to Mercer and Gritsyuk.
Plot Twist: you won’t be surprised at who we need
So that brings me back to our ultimate need, a new shiny center that can slide up the lineup when needed. This would have likely been the ultimate deadline need as well, but with injuries and recent performance, this timeline NEEDS to accelerate to NOW.
There are a few different options out there that, in my opinion, are currently acquirable based on how their team is doing and the prevailing thought amongst those that know things. While not necessarily a unique opinion my number one option last year, this past summer, and currently is Ryan O’Reilly. The amount of boxes he checks is obscene: production, play style, leadership, playoff pedigree, contract. It all fits. Option 2 is Nazeem Kadri, while his contract and term scare me a bit, he is a dog that needs rescuing. Option 3 is JG Pageau, although with the Islanders suddenly good-ish, he may be off the market.
Every one of these guys can slide in at 2C/3C now, and when fully healthy function as our full time 3C. Having Jack, Nico, O’Reilly/Kardi/Pageau, and Glass is a cup winning group of centers. The problem is our GM, who took a victory lap while we were on an 8 game heater has gone into witness protection of late. If you read Jared’s excellent walk down memory lane, you will notice Fitz has made only 5 early season deals, and ONE in his entire tenure that was intended to bolster the Devils (Jon Gilles LOL). Maybe two if you consider MacEwen for MacDermid.
Oh? What about the cap, Tim?
Now before you come in and say “what about the cap, we have no room, we’re over” etc, I know. With Kovacevic they were always going to be over the cap when he returns, so there is absolutely a plan in place to make the money work. With 13 forwards, 7 defense and 2 goalies currently under contract we are about $1.2MM over the cap fully healthy according to puckpedia (no Lachance, Lammikko, White, or Cholowski if you want to play along). Haha, I just said the words “fully healthy.”
I wrote a Dougie love letter this summer that was largely predicated on the failures of Nemec and Casey defensively in 24-25 and a wariness to move on just yet. With the recent emergence of Nemec and imminent return of Pesce, I would feel comfortable moving on from Doug in a 1 for 1 swap for O’Reilly. We are currently trying to force 3D into our PP rotation, and while Dougie is doing an admirable job defensively, Pesce is sorely missed on the PK. Nashville needs help on the right side of their D, and this would solve nearly every problem we have: the logjam of right D we have, cap issues, a Nemec extension etc. Nashville has great museums and Dougie would love a quiet place with no state tax.
What do you think?
It’s getting late early and this lineup, as currently being run out, is sinking and our grasp on 2nd int he Metro is tentative at best.
What do you think? What’s the move here? Am I panicking? Was it just a bad road trip? Do we need to be patient, and get home and look in the mirror? Let me know your thoughts.
LGD
