The Houston Texans aren’t an exotic defense. They don’t utilize creativity get to the quarterback on a regular basis. It’s probably the NFL’s most straight-forward, pin-your-ears-back defensive scheme.
That is not to say the Bills can scrap the gameplanning portion of this week for what their offense will see across the line of scrimmage on a play-to-play basis in Week 1. It’s to suggest their strategy for attacking Houston’s vaunted defense needs to be anchored in not expecting extra rushers being
sent toward Josh Allen.
Last season, the Texans had the lowest blitz rate in all of football, at just 16.7%, yet finished seventh with a pressure rate of 40.3%, per Fantasy Points Data — a dream scenario for any defensive coordinator.
That combination was integral to that unit’s excellence. And Houston was able to essentially duplicate those magical percentages in the game against the Bills in Week 12 last year.
In that victory, the Texans blitzed Allen on just 15.2% of his 39 drop backs and still managed to pressure him 43.5% of the time. Seven of his eight sacks came without a blitz! That has to be exceptionally rare in the NFL.
And check the difference for Allen in that game, split by when he was blitzed and not blitzed.
Of course, Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins were dinged in that contest. The former toughed it out but clearly was not himself, and Dawkins left the game for a long stretch, which led to 17 relief-appearance snaps for Ryan Van Demark. Dalton Kincaid didn’t play due to that knee injury. There was no Keon Coleman.
Also, Allen dropped back to pass on 28 of 39 plays in the second half, an aerial-centric attack I’d normally advocate for, but such telegraphing in that particular game felt far from ideal. Heck, Joe Brady even admitted to a less-than-stellar play-calling job after the defeat.
But it’s not as though Allen — and Brady — regularly struggled against teams that played coverage against the Bills offense and held back on blitzing. Even with this Week 12 performance included, Allen’s 105.4 quarterback rating against no-blitz plays from opposing defenses ranked third-best in the entire NFL among qualifying passers.
If that game is removed, that rating jumped to 110.4, quite naturally.
As a longtime Bills pass-game pusher, particularly due to Allen’s presence, it’s somewhat unorthodox for me to advocate for the run game. Then again, it’s not lost on me that James Cook is the league’s reigning rushing champion, and in the first half of that Week 12 outing a season ago, he had 71 yards on seven carries including a 45-yard touchdown run.
More Cook in this game — probably a smart idea for the Bills, because he’s clearly one of the league’s most explosive offensive weapons, and his continued usage keeps Houston’s pass rush honest. Limiting the Texans duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter is, of course, vital to beating this AFC South team.
Buffalo has preached the “they have to play us” mentality all offseason, and playing the Bills is dealing with Allen, his assembly of pass catchers… and Cook.
We’ll see if Brady learned his lesson schematically from last year’s contest.
How do you think the Bills should handle the Texans minimal-blitzing defense?
