Fresh off a 23-17 win over the Washington Commanders, the San Francisco 49ers have one more game ahead of a much-needed bye week: a road contest against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7.
FanDuel Sportsbook expects a close game, given the 3-point spread.
San Francisco stands at 6-0 after another close win, as they nearly blew a 20-point lead against the Commanders but stopped them on their final defensive drive to seal the deal. It didn’t come easy, though, as the efficient 49ers offense went three-and-out
on its final three drives of the game.
Additionally, San Francisco could be without Mike Evans this week after he dealt with Achilles soreness and missed the second half of Monday’s game. So there are a lot of factors to deal with for the 49ers heading into what might be their toughest challenge of the season, given the circumstances.
San Francisco entered the week as 4.5-point favorites, but that has come down to 2.5 as we inch closer to Sunday morning. Can the 49ers find another way to win and remain undefeated?
Here are our three predictions for San Francisco’s Week 7 bout with the Falcons.
Last Week
First, let’s take a look at how last week’s predictions fared.
Last Week
- Brock Purdy pads his MVP case
- Niners hit the 30-point mark again
- The Niners make Washington one-dimensional
With Washington being quite solid against the run, but very susceptible to the pass, it felt like a favorable matchup for Brock Purdy and the Niners offense with Mike Evans healthy. We saw that play out in the first half, where the 49ers scored three touchdowns on five drives, while Purdy was clicking with Evans, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey.
However, it wasn’t the same story offensively in the second half. The 49ers did get a good first drive, which ended in a field goal, but had three three-and-outs to end the game, with two being derailed by sacks. So, after 20 points in the first half, San Francisco also did not reach the 30-point mark for the game.
They did make Washington one-dimensional, though. Washington’s running backs had just 13 carries, while Jayden Daniels had 40 pass attempts. As a whole, the Commanders rushed for just 53 yards on 3.1 yards per carry. It just was overshadowed by some high-quality play from Daniels in the second half, as the quarterback’s 300 passing yards nearly engineered the comeback.
Now, let’s move on to this week’s game.
Raheem Morris is going to blitz Michael Penix
The Falcons offense has been a completely different story with Michael Penix at the helm. They’re fourth in EPA per play since Week 3. A big part of that has been their run game, which has been easily the most efficient in the league during that timeframe.
But Atlanta’s needed at least an average passing attack to complement Bijan Robinson, and it’s done that with Penix, who specializes in getting the ball out quickly, averaging a 2.57-second time to throw.
When looking at the trends this season, it feels like a game where the 49ers are going to blitz Penix a good amount. Penix has been blitzed on 47.2 percent of his dropbacks, and has actually done quite well against it, completing 62.3 percent of his passes with four touchdowns, no interceptions, and 9.3 yards per attempt.
But that’s also in part because Penix has done a great job getting the ball out while getting played, averaging just a 2.35-second time to throw on those 58 dropbacks.
Where Penix has really struggled this year is when he’s under pressure. He’s completed just 10 passes on 42 dropbacks, as he’s gone 10-for-32 passing while taking nine sacks. San Francisco will need to take advantage of Penix’s desire to get the ball out quickly, and with their defensive line, I think Morris will find a way to blitz Penix.
Looking at past weeks, the 49ers blitzed Bo Nix around 40 percent of the time, Sam Darnold around 27 percent of the time, and Jayden Daniels around 36 percent of the time. I’d think the blitz rate hovers around a similar range here in Week 7.
Niners will swarm to the ball, and it could make or break them
San Francisco’s defense has always looked to swarm to the ball, which is why they can be as physical and violent as they are. I’d expect no less against an offense looking to run the ball a ton and get the ball out quickly in the passing game.
However, against this specific opponent, that philosophy could make or break them, and that’s because of Bijan Robinson. Arguably the best back in the league, Robinson is averaging a whopping 4.72 yards after contact per carry. He’s broken off 15 runs of 10+ yards, and he’s also very dynamic in the passing game.
The star is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and is one of the best in the NFL at breaking tackles. There will be screens and a ton of runs in this one, and the 49ers will be tasked with tackling well. If they swarm to the ball, but cannot wrap up, it could be a rough day on the ground.
The 49ers will have to rely on their passing game again
This is admittedly a very tough matchup for the 49ers.
I’ve written how the 49ers have been able to establish the run well enough over the past two weeks behind quality blocking, but the Falcons have been one of the NFL’s best run defenses throughout the year. They even held a strong Chicago Bears rushing attack to just 3.0 yards per carry last weekend, despite losing 31-23 in that game.
Atlanta is also good against the pass, ranking ninth in EPA per play there, so this will be a tough spot for the 49ers to generate offense. Instantly, it feels like a bigger game plan for second-year wide receiver Jordan Watkins.
Watkins saw a huge boost in routes and snaps last week, leading the receivers in snaps with 47 after being behind Brandin Cooks and Jacob Cowing the week before. It also comes with a tough matchup, but this also feels like a game where Brock Purdy might have to make some magic happen with extending plays.
The Niners aren’t expected to be with Mike Evans, increasing the responsibilities for George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. But the 49ers will have to set up their passing game if they want to win on Sunday.
