While it wasn’t for a lack of effort, UNC dropped their second game in a row against an in-state rival, losing to Duke 32-25. The Blue Devils claimed the Victory Bell in a contest that turned heavily on a fake
field goal that completely flummoxed UNC, which is a pretty dispiriting way to lose a rivalry game. The loss all-but-eliminated UNC from making a bowl game (technically, if there are not enough 6-6 teams to fill all the bowl spots, a 5-7 UNC team could make it, but this seems extremely unlikely).
The Heels still have one game left, and it will carry some weight. NC State is also finishing up a (slightly less) disappointing season, but always shows up for the rivalry game. The Wolfpack have already clinched bowl eligibility after beating Florida State 21-11 last week, and can finish with a .500 record in ACC play with a win.
Baby steps forward for the UNC offense?
UNC has had one of the worst offenses in college football for most of the season. There’s a wide variety of stats and advanced metrics to support this; the Heels are averaging a meager 290.9 yards per game on offense, the sixth-worst mark among the 134 FBS programs this season. They average just 19.3 points a game, and even that’s bolstered a bit by the occasional garbage time touchdown when their opponent has taken their foot off the gas.
That being said, Carolina’s offense actually looked like it had a little life against Duke. Gio Lopez looked serviceable running the offense, completing almost 78% of his passes while throwing for a touchdown and running for another one. UNC also gained over 100 yards on the ground despite their baffling rotation among the running backs. In short, the offense didn’t do enough to win the game, but at least wasn’t the reason the Heels lost either. It’s not much, but it’s something the team can build on in their last game against a State team with a middling defense.
Play a clean game
Last year, I noted that penalties were a longstanding issue for Mack Brown-coached teams. The hiring of Bill Belichick was supposed to clean this up; as coach of the Patriots, his squads often ranked among the least penalized teams in the NFL. This seemed like one of the quickest ways for UNC to get better from last year, even considering the expected drop in talent.
Instead, UNC is once again struggling to play penalty-free football. UNC ranks 81st in the country in penalties per game; last year they finished 104th. While there’s some improvement there, the Heels are actually getting worse as the season goes on. UNC has committed just over six penalties per game on the whole this season, but has averaged nine a contest over their last three games. The Duke game was particularly bad; Carolina committed a whopping 12 penalties for 103 yards. The Heels will have to reverse this trend to have a shot at beating NC State in Raleigh.
Motivation for the Heels
For the many (many) flaws this UNC team has, I’ve yet to get the impression that the team as a whole has given up on the season. They seem to still be playing hard; they’re just not a good team. While a few players have left the team, those that remain continue to put in the work on Saturdays.
Still, I wonder what the motivation level will look like in this game for UNC. The Heels aren’t in bowl contention any longer and are coming off a deflating loss in a rivalry game. While it doesn’t take much for UNC fans to get invested in a game against the Wolfpack, a large chunk of UNC’s roster is new and may or may not be as invested in a rivalry game that doesn’t have the same national cachet as UNC-Duke.
Of course, Dave Doeren and NC State will be raring to go. It feels like the only reason Doeren is still around as the coach at State has been his ability to beat UNC, and the Heels will need to match State’s intensity on the field. As bad as this season has been, Bill Belichick beating Doeren with the worst UNC team of the past several years would be a nice way to end his inaugural campaign.
