When: Saturday January 3 – 11:00 AM
Where: Lenovo Center
TV: ESPN2
Opponent: Virginia Cavaliers
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): NC State 80-77 / NC State 80-76
Wolfpack Snapshot:
- Record: 10-4, 1-0
- Rankings: KP #24, BT #22
- NET Ranking: NET 32, 6th in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (1-3), Q2 (3-1), Q3 (2-0), Q4 (4-0)
Wolfpack Season
So Far:
KenPom Snapshot:
- Adj. Efficiency: Off ranked 36 / Def ranked 34
Excellent progress report! The defense being ranked higher than the offense was a surprise.
What’s On the Line?
ACC Net Rankings: (through 12/31)
- Top third (NET Rank): Duke (5), Lou (11), UNC (18), SMU (29), UVA (31), NCS (32)
- Middle third (NET Rank): Clem (36), Mia (39), VT (53), Cal (54), ND (69), WF (71)
- Bottom third (NET Rank): Syr (89), Stan (92), Pitt (112), FSU (123), GT (162), BC (180)
Unfortunately, UVA slipped above NET 30 after losing to VaTech so is a Q2 game. If they behave, (after we play them) they could definitely become a Q1 game again.
After this game NC State has a winnable two-game road trip, BC (NET 180) and FSU (NET 123) followed by a home game against GT (NET 162). Win this one and it is reasonable to think the Pack could start 5-0 in league play heading down to Littlejohn for the next possible Q1 game.
Wolfpack Player Notes:
- Jerry Deng – groin pull
Opponent Overview:
Ryan Odom takes over the helm at UVA reminding us that it’s a small basketball world. Ryan’s dad Dave was an assistant at UVA under Terry Holland before coaching at Wake, and as the coach at UMBC Ryan pulled off one of the great upsets in NCAA tournament history by beating UVA by 20, pulling off the first 16 seed win ever. After his five-year run at UMBC, he spent a couple of seasons at both Utah State and VCU (cradle of coaches) before moving to Charlottesville.
Like Coach Wade, Coach Odom had a full rebuild on his hands. Coach Odom signed 4-star freshman Chance Mallory the same day he was hired. He brought in seven transfers, highlighted by the WCC’s leading scorer Malik Thomas out of San Francisco, All-Big West second team Devin Tillis out of UC-Irvine, and very familiar looking PG Dallin Hall from BYU. Like all the cool schools are doing, he also signed two ‘Euro-pros’, Thjis De Ridder, a five-year player out of Belgium and Johann Grunloh a four-year player from Germany.
Coach Odom wishes he could have signed Darrion Williams.
Opponent Snapshot:
- Record: 11-2, 0-1
- Rankings: KP #26, BT #23
- NET Ranking: NET 31, 5th in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (1-2), Q2 (2-0), Q3 (2-0), Q4 (6-0)
Their Season So Far:
Virgina has an excellent record (11-2), however KP ranks their out-of-conference schedule at 286. (for comparison, NC State’s OOC rank is 61)
The Cavs dropped a 3OT road game to VT Saturday. VT was playing without two starters, their leading rebounder forward Lawal (averages 12.8 ppg / 10.3 rpg) and guard Johnson (9.5 ppg / 5.3 rpg). Ben Hammond (5’11”) came off the bench for VT and had his career game with 30 pts, 5 reb, 5 assists, 2 steals, and a block. The biggest stat differentiators in VT’s favor were rebounding 60-54, 3PT shooting was 32% – 22%, and fouls, UVA had 27 to VT’s 16. UVA’s De Ridder had 22 / 13 / 5.
What To Watch For:
- Three Point Shooting – The Wolfpack shot only 29% against Wake, Williams (he’ll be fine, thank you!) shot 2-6 and McNeil hit 2-5, the rest of the team was 2-10. Since Maui, Able has shot 7/24 (29.1%), Breed has shot 3/15 (20%), Copeland has shot 7/13 (53.8%) and Holloman has shot 15/40 (37.5%). Over the same period, as a team the Wolfpack is averaging 35.1% and making 10.2 per game. The Pack leads the ACC in 3PT%, need to get back to the standard.
- Rebounding – The Deacs are a good rebounding team. Their two big euro-starters are averaging a combined 13.6 rebounds per game. By himself, Tillis pulled 8 against VT. In the last two games, the Wolfpack has tied offensive rebound totals and won the defensive boards, Wake (+5) and Ole Miss (+6). This is the type of big front court NC State will see again in the ACC. Look for Sagnia to set a new season high in minutes (currently 27). Need to keep this close.
- UVA – strength – Experience: The Pack will not play a more experienced starting lineup. The three US transfers are grads, and the two European pros have played 5 seasons of pro ball (De Ridder) and 4 seasons (Grunloh).
- UVA – weakness – Free Throw Shooting: Ranked 15th in the ACC in FT%
- UVA – strength – Rebounding: Ranked 3rd in ACC
- UVA – strength – Shot Blocking: Ranked 2nd in ACC
- UVA – 3PT Shooter – Jacari White: Leads ACC in 3PT%, 30/60 (50%)
- Darrion Williams – Stop asking! “It’s a terrible question”
Prediction: These is not your mom’s Cavaliers, they are going to score and so will the Wolfpack. Another physical matchup, Pack fans will be on foul watch again. Williams and Sagnia struggle to slow De Ridder all game. The Pack gets just enough 3PT shots to fall. Pack wins 80-69.
