The Rockets’ post-mortem press conference provided some clarity about the team’s direction.
The operative word there is “some”.
From what we can gather, Rafael Stone thinks Reed Sheppard is Steve Nash, and Ime Udoka thinks he’s Steve Kerr. We could settle on Mark Price or Mahmoud Abdul-Raof
It seems like the intention is to “run it back”. It was mere days ago that I wrote a piece suggesting that running it back was the worst possible decision. There’s an adage in this industry:
No take-backsies.
Still,
there is some room for optimism. Whatever the Rockets do, their situation is not as disastrous as some would suggest. None of these young guys has emerged as a franchise-caliber talent. That’s the harsh reality:
But, they’re still pretty good!
Seriously. The Rockets (if you’re willing to include Tari Eason, who’s in contract purgatory) roster four players under 25 who are locks to be, at a minimum, long-term starting-caliber players. Then there’s Reed Sheppard, who can’t claim the same secure floor but may have the highest offensive ceiling of the group.
They also have one of the better collections of future first-round draft capital in the NBA. So no, this is not an impending catastrophe. The feeling that it is likely comes from accepting the sad reality that the Rockets are also not in one of the NBA’s premier situations, which many of us thought they were until recently. There’s plenty to salvage here:
Arguably, it starts with the 2027 NBA Draft.
Rockets have a pair of picks in next summer’s draft
Yes, this draft is considered weak. Let’s look at some other drafts that were considered weak.
The 2020 draft was weak. Anthony Edwards preferred football. LaMelo Ball was a bit too silly. James Wiseman was solid, but an unlikely star.
Right. Seems like Edwards digs basketball. Ball is a bit too silly, but so is his talent level. Wiseman’s trajectory was unfortunate, but Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrese Maxey, and Deni Avdija were lying in wait.
How about 2013? Anthony Bennett was picked first. Yikes. The Cavaliers probably should have gone with the 15th overall pick, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Even if they’d settled on the 27th overall, Rudy Gobert, it would be remembered reasonably well. The Magic grabbed Victor Oladipo right after Bennett, who at least has a single number one caliber season under his belt.
Here’s a fun fact: No draft in NBA history has produced 0 All-Stars. The 2000 draft comes pretty close, with only Kenyon Martin and Jamal Magloire, arguably two of the worst All-Stars in All-Star history, making the annual exhibition. Sure, but that’s the literal worst draft ever. The 2027 draft is, just by virtue of probability, unlikely to match it in sheer badness.
There will be gems in this class: It’s just a matter of finding them. Frankly, a good general manager should be salivating over this type of class. It’s fun! It’s a challenge. Although Rafael Stone may not be feeling so fancy free about it:
It could make or break his career.
The Rockets have to nail the 2027 draft
Let’s talk about Stone’s record in the draft.
It’s mixed. In terms of lottery picks, he’s largely been untested. Every general manager in the NBA was taking Jabari Smith Jr. third in 2022. It’s outrageously illogical to suggest that Stone should have gone with Jalen Williams. Of course he should have! “Hey dingus, you should have done the genius thing that no other person in the world was going to do” isn’t a fair bar for evaluating anyone’s job performance.
Amen Thompson was the right pick at four. Reed Sheppard is TBD. The only egregious high lottery error of his tenure is Jalen Green over Evan Mobley. That’s an article in itself. Let’s just punctuate this with another tremendous yikes.
He’s done poorly with picks in the 20s. That’s a reality. It’s fair to point out that most picks in the 20s don’t pan out. That’s true. Still, to have walked away with Josh Christopher, Usman Garuba, TyTy Washington, and Cam Whitmore with four picks in the 20s qualifies as poor.
Were they all bad choices? It depends on who you ask. I was thirstier than a mountain biker in a Sprite commercial for Garuba. I was wrong, and so was Stone. I would have had a voluntary root canal before drafting Christopher, I was entirely indifferent to Washington, and Whitmore was a necessary evil at 20th. This section of the draft is a crapshoot, but it’s reasonable to say that Stone should have walked away with one (just one) decent NBA player.
In the middle of the draft, he’s thrived with Alperen Sengun and Tari Eason. So…yeah. His overall record qualifies as strong, but unexceptional. If he’s careful and thorough in his research, he can change the Rockets’ fortunes in the 2027 draft.
Who’s going to be available?
Rockets will have intriguing options in the 2027 draft
Let’s keep this (relatively) brief. It’s early in the draft cycle, the order is inevitably going to change in a year, and this article is running long.
The presumptive number one at this juncture is Kansas’ Tyran Stokes. Frankly, I don’t see it. He’s a 6’7″, 230-pound wing. Stokes looks like a transition demon who may have limited utility in the halfcourt. I see shades of Miles Bridges, but he’s got a year to prove me wrong.
By contrast, I love Duke’s Cameron Williams. This is your standard Evan Mobley / Alex Sarr model. To my eye, he’s got a bit more offensive upside than either, even if he’s a bit less prodigous on defense than should-be-a-Rocket Mobley.
There are many more guys to cover, but I’ll focus on the ones I’ve taken an interest in. Maryland’s Baba Oladotun has garnered comparisons to Kevin Durant. Obviously, it’s exceedingly unlikely that he’ll be as good as Kevin Durant, but Oladotun is a 6’10” wing with a strong handle, excellent footwork, and smooth shot mechanics. So far, he’s hyperefficient from midrange, but needs to improve his three-point efficiency.
Remember when Luka Doncic was picked third? Nobody would let a 6’7″ Slovenian playmaker slip again, right? We’ll see. Stefan Joksimovic is of that general archetype. He’s a bit more scoring-minded. He’s more athletic, and less brilliant. Joksimovic may be a combo guard, but he is a strong passer, crafty driver, and developing shooter.
Those are lottery options. The Rockets have two picks (via the Suns, and a swap with the Nets), and it’s hard to say where either will land. Florida’s Thomas Haugh is a high-energy combo forward who can hit threes. Michigan’s Moustafa Thiam has the potential to be the elusive 3-and-D big man. There are many other names to consider, and it’s entirely possible that the best player in this class isn’t on anyone’s radar yet.
Rafael Stone had better search for him like his job depends on it.
