I really don’t know what to think about Andre Pallante. After a bad 2025 season, I was pretty ambivalent about him. Sure he showed some promise in 2024, but even when he is pitching well, he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts or do anything overly flashy. Yet here we are approaching the midpoint of the season and he is arguably the Cardinals’ second best starting pitcher. He has lopped a run and a half off his ERA, lowering it to 3.76, and already eclipsed his 2025 WAR total. Today I want to take a quick
look at his pitch metrics and utilization pattern to highlight some of the adjustments and evolutions he has made that are contributing to his success.
Stuff
Pallante’s Stuff+ score has gone from 97 in 2024 to 95 last season, and back up to 97 this season. Stuff+ is scaled so that 100 is average and is computed by measuring an individual pitch’s velocity, movement, spin rate, etc. Even though the aggregate metric has remained stable, there have been notable changes to his repertoire.
Pallante’s primary pitch, his four-seam fastball, has graded out similarly the last three seasons (95 or 96) despite having a large change in the movement profile. The 2024 version of his four-seamer sunk and cut, moving away from right-handed hitters and in to left-handed hitters, much more than the typical four-seamer. It sank 6.4 inches more than average and cut 7.5 inches more than average. This season, it is sinking just 3.7 inches more than average and cutting 7 inches more than the typical four-seamer. This shift toward a slightly more typical shape could explain some of the drop in groundball percentage that Pallante has induced. After posting an absurd 77.8% GB% in 2023, that figure has dropped to 61.8% in 2024, 59.1% last season, and is down to 53.3% this year. Pallante has increased the velocity on the pitch about half a mile per hour to 95.1 MPH this season.
Pallante’s sinker has been the highest-graded pitch by the models and this season is rated as a 107. He has improved the spin efficiency on the pitch and is generating 1.5 inches more arm-side movement while throwing the pitch a tick harder. This has been a critical development, as the sinker is the primary fastball he uses to try to neutralize the right-handed hitters that have historically given him so much trouble.
Pallante’s slider and knuckle curve are both grading out similarly to last season, albeit with a bit more movement. Finally, Pallante has introduced a splitter into his repertoire, but has only thrown the pitch 37 times so far this season. In the extremely small sample size, the pitch grades out a tick below average at 97 on the Stuff+ scale, but it gives him another weapon to sprinkle in against the lefties.
Pitch Mix
Pallante has made drastic changes to his pitch mix over the last three seasons.
His four-seam fastball usage has declined all the way down to 30%. I cut the graph off at the last three seasons, when he has primarily been a starter, but he threw the pitch even more frequently in his first two seasons in the majors. He is still throwing the pitch 49% of the time against lefties, but is mixing more offspeed and breaking pitches than in years past. His four-seam fastball ate lefties alive in 2024, holding them to a .315 xwOBA, but the last two years his results have been more pedestrian with a combined xwOBA of .364. For reference, the league average right-on-left four-seam fastball xwOBA is .353 this season. This drop in reliance on the pitch seems like it is in response to the change in the movement profile of the pitch. It is still an effective offering to left-handers but not to the same level it was earlier in his career.
The reduction in four-seam utilization has made room for Pallante to mix in all his other offerings a few percentage points more. You can see when you further break down the mix by the batters’ handedness that the plan of attack is even more polarized.
Pallante has moved to a slightly more balanced mix of pitches against lefties, mixing in more breaking and offspeed pitches at the expense of his four-seam. Against right-handers, he is now throwing his revamped sinker and slider a combined 76% of the time. Perhaps not coincidentally, for the first time in his career, Pallante is holding right-handers to a below-average batting line with a wOBA of .285 (.318 MLB average). Pallante is still holding left-handers to a solid .308 wOBA, but this is the first time in his career he is running more traditional splits.
Location
Perhaps the biggest change this season for Pallante has been his ability to throw strikes and get into more favorable counts. His first-pitch strike percentage is 67.7%, fourth among qualified starters. Last season, Pallante ranked 32nd out of the 54 qualified starters. Batters who start off 0-1 have a 67 wRC+. Those who start off 1-0 go on to produce a 131 wRC+ in those plate appearances. Throwing first-pitch strikes is easier said than done. The obvious trade-off is if you get too strike-happy, batters will swing more frequently and ambush(™) (thanks Chip) hittable strikes. Pallante has avoided this fate thus far in 2026 as batters are managing a .342 wOBA against him on first-pitch contact. The league average wOBA on first-pitch contact (or HBP) is .386 across the league. How has Pallante managed to keep hitters from sitting on first-pitch strikes? Part of it is his ability to mix things up, reducing his first-pitch fastball usage from 67% to 56%. Last season, Pallante threw only 36.2% of his non-fastball pitches in the strike zone. The average pitcher lands offspeed and breaking pitches in the zone around 42% of the time. So far this season, Andre has increased his non-fastball Zone% to 42.6%. In fact, he is throwing each of his pitches in the zone more consistently this season.
This has allowed Pallante to significantly increase both his secondary usage AND his overall percentage of pitches in the zone. This has been a huge development both for his effectiveness and, selfishly, his watchability. It no longer seems like he is constantly behind in the count, bouncing breaking balls nowhere near the strike zone. The best way to capture where Pallante has found success this season is by looking at his slider utilization against right-handed batters. He has started 38% of his plate appearances against righties with the slider. On those 59 pitches, he has gotten ahead 0-1 38 times, he has induced five first-pitch outs, and given up one solitary hit, a single. That will play.
Pallante has had good stretches before, followed by a series of blow-ups. Pitcher development is always tricky to follow and almost impossible to predict, but he has made some real changes to his repertoire and pitch mix, and is executing better than ever before. We just might have a good pitcher on our hands.
