Overview
- Rating: 4.73 [distribution: poor (3-) 27.5%, excellent (8+) 12.5%]
- 2025 Stats
- 29 Games Started, 5.02 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 143 SO, 60 BB
- Date of Birth: 4/7/1993
- 2025 Earnings: $20 Million
- 2026 Status: Contract through 2027, with mutual option for 2028.
Optimism about the Eduardo Rodriguez acquisition.
When he was acquired prior to the 2024 season, I listed four reasons to be optimistic in this AZ Snake Pit article.
- The first reason was that he would outperform Lucas Giolito, a bounce back candidate that the Diamondbacks might have signed instead of Rodriguez. I was hugely wrong. Instead Giolito outperformed. Giolito’s ERA was better (3.41), his FIP was better (4.17), his percentage of Quality Starts was higher (54%), and the percentage of games with 5 or more runs allowed was lower (15%).
- The second reason was Rodriguez would add stability and consistency to the rotation. Maybe true, but it’s hard to say that.
- The third reason was he would improve the rotation’s ERA. I was hugely wrong. He significantly lowered the rotation’s ERA.
- The fourth reason was that in 2026 he could be a “pillar of the rotation.” If true, this would be an incredible prediction made two years in advance! Wouldn’t that be grand?!
After the disappointing 2024 season, hopes were high that Eduardo Rodriguez could bounce back to his career norms.
“Given the three guaranteed years still on his contract, the Diamondbacks will be sure to try and figure out how to get those numbers closer to his career norms. Perhaps a new pitching coach will help with that, and Kaplan will be able to find something to give him a new tact
to take. If he can return to the form that the Diamondbacks were expecting at the moment of signing, he could be just as huge for them this season as we all expected him to be last season.” — Blake Stokes, November 2024
2025 Review
The following statistics reflect two things the Diamondbacks need per this AZ Snake Pit article.
- At least 50% Quality Starts (6+ innings, 3- runs allowed).
- Less than 25% games with 6 or more runs (sum of earned and unearned runs). Assuming the bullpen allows only 1 run (optimistic), that translates to the starter allowing 5 or more runs.
His Quality Starts and keeping the Diamondbacks in the game. Eduardo Rodriguez fell short or both the statistics with on 31% quality starts and 28% of games with 5 or more runs allowed.
It is vital that he improve his results in these two statistics. Is it possible? Yes! He performed well on both statistics in 2022 and 2023. Those recent seasons give me reason to be optimistic.
His Changeup. It’s whiff percentage fell from 31.7% to 25.6% in 2024, but then rose to 28.7% in 2025. That would be encouraging except that batters’ SLG against the changeup rose from .292 to .385 to 485.
“A couple of years ago [2023], the change-up was a pitch Rodriguez could lean on for swings and misses and soft contact. He is still getting whiffs on the pitch this year, but the quality of contact has not been good.” — Justin Criscuolo, August 2025
“It just feels like it’s coming back. When my fastball is going, my change-up is going, too. When my fastball isn’t there, no one is going to swing at my change-up. My fastball was working great today.” — Eduardo Rodriguez
Comparison to other Diamondbacks starters. His 4.47 FIP was worse than all starters except for Crismatt (5 starts) and DeSclafani (4 starts). ERA was a similar comparison; he edged ahead of Pfaadt, and fell behind Crismatt. He did not compete for top of the rotation. Maybe next season will be different.
The biggest point to carry with you is that if he can again reach 50% quality starts and allows 5-runs-or-more in less than 25% of his games, he will help the Diamondbacks reach the playoffs.
2026 Outlook
The outlook ranges from the same as last season (making it a real decision whether to DFA him), to more quality starts and more keeping the Diamondbacks in the game (making him a contributor to reaching the playoffs), to being a pillar of the rotation (validating an optimistic prediction made two years ago).
His early season performance will be worth watching. It will determine whether he has a chance to show how great he can pitch!
My current view is that his percentage of quality starts will increase from 31% to around 50%, meaning he will contribute towards the Diamondbacks reaching the playoffs.
