After a long and controversy-filled offseason, the San Francisco 49ers finally kick off the 2026 season with a date on the other side of the world against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night (for us).
Entering Kyle Shanahan’s 10th season, we’ve seen a couple of best-case-scenario seasons (2019 and 2023) and some worst-case-scenario seasons (2020 and 2024). So where does 2026 fall on that spectrum?
Here is what I see as the best-case and worst-case scenario for the 2026 49ers:
Best-case scenario:
Win the Super Bowl
I mean, this one is pretty obvious. The 49ers are still very much Super Bowl contenders.
Now, is the Super Bowl window as open as it was in, say, 2023? No, certainly not, but the door is definitely ajar. The core is largely the same, but some key pieces have changed. Brandon Aiyuk is now Mike Evans. Charvarius Ward is now Deommodore Lenoir. Jake Moody is Eddy Pineiro. Dre Greenlaw is now Dre Greenlaw, and Deebo Samuel is Deebo Samuel.
The talent might not be as great as it was in 2023, especially on the defensive side as the ball, but it is a more experienced team and there’s still plenty of talent. The team as constructed is good enough to be a Super Bowl contender,, but what’s around them could prevent a February trip to SoFi Stadium.
When the 49ers last went to the Super Bowl after the 2023 season, they won the NFC West with 12 wins. Last season, 12 wins was good enough for a third-place finish for San Francisco, and with how the Rams and Seahawks are looking, that could be the case again in 2026 in the division. The path to the playoffs will be much more daunting this season than it was in 2023.
And even if the 49ers make the playoffs, the postseason path will be tough. Maybe the Seahawks or Rams will be on that road, but look around the NFC; there are plenty of good teams that could upend the 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes.
But a Super Bowl championship isn’t out of the realm of possibilities for this 49ers team. There is talent in the NFC, and the path will be difficult like it always is, but the talent is there, and hoisting the Lombardi at the end of the season is realistic.
Worst-case scenario: everything goes to plan but fall short of a Lombardi Trophy
The easy worst-case scenario is everybody gets hurt, and the 49ers miss the playoffs. But we have seen that before in 2018, 2020, and 2024. Injuries create an excuse for struggles everybody would understand, even after a 2025 season when the 49ers overcame injuries and made a postseason run.
A scenario where the 49ers can keep a healthy roster but not win a Super Bowl would create more questions than answers.
The first set of questions would surround Kyle Shanahan and his ability to win “the big one.” Shanahan was already heavily criticized before signing on with the 49ers, becoming the first offensive coordinator to be blamed for his defense blowing a 25-point third-quarter lead.
Since he’s taken over the 49ers, Shanahan has certainly steered the boat in the correct direction, but still hasn’t been able to get to the final destination, losing two NFC Championship Games and two Super Bowls.
A third loss of either would put Shanahan in the “Andy Reid with the Eagles” territory. Now, his tenure is slightly shorter than Reid’s with the Eagles (2026 will be Shanahan’s 10th season with the 49ers; Reid was let go from the Eagles after his 14th season), and a playoff appearance without a Super Bowl win wouldn’t put Shanahan on the hot seat right away; the conversations about Shanahan being the “right guy” will only get louder.
After four straight years without winning a playoff game, Reid was let go by the Eagles before finding the job (and quarterback) with the Chiefs to finally get over that hump. And Reid was consistent with the Eagles, making the playoffs in nine of his 14 years. But he was also 0-4 in the NFC Championship Game and 0-1 in the Super Bowl with the Eagles, before the Eagles moved on and won two Super Bowls over the next 12 years.
Maybe the 49ers will be in the same sort of conversations with Shanahan if this worst-case scenario comes to fruition. Maybe they won’t. But a deep playoff run with a healthy team without a Super Bowl title won’t be a great look for Shanahan, who already has a perception around him in those types of games.
