The preseason excitement for Big Blue Nation a season ago was through the roof. Mark Pope had assembled college basketballs most expensive roster where he feasted on anyone he wanted out of the transfer portal.
But while year one saw Mark Pope and his roster overachieve to expectations, last season they were severe underachievers.
Kentucky routinely plays a difficult-ish schedule. They’re locked into the Champions Classic, and last year they played rival Louisville early. After losing to the Cardinals
in a game where Louisville led by double digits for most of the second half, they were blown out by Michigan State in the Champions Classic. They lost to North Carolina at home in the ACC-SEC Challenge, then got blasted by Gonzaga in Nashville, Tennessee. Wins over Indiana and St. John’s quieted the crowds a bit, but then the Wildcats started SEC play 0-2, including a home loss to Missouri. Then they lost five of their last seven games.
Forget the injuries, which certainly kept the Wildcats from operating at a high level, Kentucky never looked like the team many expected to contend for a National title.
Instead, the seat under Mark Pope warmed a lot. And it only increased with an offseason full of missteps. Now Pope is in save-your-job mode. And the only thing saving him is a good season.
Previous SEC Previews:
- 9. Texas A&M Aggies, 9-9
- 10. Oklahoma Sooner, 9-9
- 11. LSU Tigers, 7-11
- 12. Auburn Tigers, 7-11
- 13. Georgia Bulldogs: 6-12
- 14.South Carolina Gamecocks, 4-14
- 15. Ole Miss Rebels: 4-14
- 16. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-15
Kentucky Wildcats
- Last season: 22 – 14 (10-8 in conference) #29
- The Masses Prediction: 7th in conference
- SEC Media Pick: 7th in conference
- Analytics Average: 7th in conference, 24th overall
HEAD COACH: Mark Pope | 3rd Season, 46-26
In a job like this, the tables can turn quickly. Expectations at Kentucky are through the roof each and every year: Compete for a national title. You don’t have to win one every year, but you’ve got to be in the conversation. John Calipari was there 11 out of 15 years. So far Mark Pope hasn’t really gotten there once.
His first year, the Wildcats achieved a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but he’s been 10-8 in conference play in back to back years, so the 3 seed was more about the strength of the league. Cal went 10-8 or worse twice in 15 years. Patience in Lexington is short. And while Pope has done his best to try to endear himself to Big Blue Nation, even an alumnus with a National Championship under his belt can only do so much to stave off the hoard. To be fair to Pope, the SEC is in a different place from where it was when Cal was first hired. It’s far more competitive, and there are a lot more pratfalls to navigate each year.
And things haven’t been bad, but this offseason Pope experienced a handful of whiffs in the transfer portal which brought the ire of the extremely online fans. But recruiting misses is something BBN are just not used to, especially now that Calipari is in Fayetteville landing similar recruiting classes to what he did for UK.
Pope is up against it this season. The roster is good, but it’s far from elite. They overachieved in year one, underachieved in year 2, and now it’s year 3. He needs to exceed the expectations here to get the fanbase back on his side.
Kentucky was running the SEC most years under Calipari. They won 6 SEC Tournament championships, and 6 regular season championships. But since the transfer portal opened for the first time, and NIL became the standard for everyone, the rest of the league has seriously invested, and the treading has gotten a lot more difficult. Since the league expanded for the 2012-13 season, Kentucky has won 5 regular season titles, Florida has three, Auburn has three, Tennessee has two, Alabama has two, and LSU and Texas A&M have one.
But it’s not just that other teams are competing and winning SEC championships, it’s the bottom of the league has gotten so much better. The 2013 SEC had 11 teams ranked 55th or worse in KenPom, last year the league had 4 such teams. In 2013 there were 5 sub-100 teams, including three ranked 197 or worse. Last year the lowest ranked team was Mississippi State at 102. It’s just a different conference, and Kentucky is having to adjust to that.
LOST PRODUCTION
10th in % minutes, 78.40% | 12th in % points, 82.66% | 12th in % possessions, 82.41%
To replace a lot of experience and production from their previous roster, Mark Pope assembled an Avengers-style transfer portal roster. He built around All SEC Conference guard Otega Oweh, and while the accumulation of talent was impressive, it didn’t fit. And it was a group unlike any Pope had coached in the past. It also hurt that they put so much onto the plate of Jaland Lowe as a ball handler, and Lowe ended up getting hurt early in the year, and any effort to come back limited his ability.
They also spent a lot of money on Jayden Quaintance, who’s ceiling is immense, but was coming off an ACL injury and was not the kind of player you go through offensively. Denzel Aberdeen and Collin Chandler were good players, but also not guys to be the focus of the offense.
The biggest win of the offseason for Mark Pope was when he talked Malachi Moreno into coming back to school. Moreno didn’t have an outstanding season last year for the Wildcats, but he was really good in his freshman season. So good that the NBA had taken notice, and Moreno was given a late first round or early second round grade. The NBA and College basketball are looking for different things, but one thing everyone wants is a skilled big man, who can shoot, pass, and rebound around the rim. Moreno ticks all those boxes. But there’s no question he’s going to have to do a lot more this season.
The Cats also return Trent Noah, a burly wing who can shoot the ball a bit, and Kam Williams, a Tulane transfer who at 6’8 is a high upside shooter. Williams hit over 40% of his threes as a freshman at Tulane, but dropped to 35.9% last season. He also had some trouble staying healthy, seeing action in only 24 games.
The big move Kentucky made this offseason was being able to add Milan Momcilovic, college basketball’s most elite shooter, out of the transfer portal. Momcilovic has spent the previous three seasons making 42.8% of this threes for the Iowa State Cyclones. But he declared for the NBA Draft and entered the transfer portal instead of playing a 4th year for TJ Otzelberger. The draft process was good, but once Kentucky entered the race, Milan was going to have to turn down more money than he’d make even as a lottery pick. As a player, Momcilovic is more than just a shooter, but that’s where he’s elite. He’s got good size, and often played the 4 at Iowa State, but projects to the wing at Kentucky.
In need of multiple ball handlers, the Wildcats added two primary point guards in Washington transfer and former 5-star point guard Zoom Diallo, plus Furman standout freshman point guard Alex Wilkins. If there’s a concern between the two is they were both heavy usage guards, and neither has a reputation as a shooter off the catch, so projecting how they play together will be a wait and see. But there’s elite talent in scoring the basketball with either player.
Ousmane N’Diaye might have the biggest ceiling of anyone on the roster. The Senegalese international forward has played professionally in Spain, Italy and Germany, and at 6’11 is most known for his ability to stretch the floor. He has all the hallmarks of a high level player, but needs to get better about finishing around the rim, or even going in and attacking the defense inside. If he figures out that part of the game, he could be an All SEC level player.
Franck Kepnang, a 7th (!!!) year player transferring in from Washington, and Justin McBride, a combo forward from Texas, by way of James Madison, Nevada and Oklahoma State, round out the front court.
The top line talent is certainly intriguing. The depth is definitely questionable. There are a few combinations that shouldn’t surprise you if Pope goes with something other than the most obvious starting five. One is moving Momcilovic to the 4, which is where he played a lot while at Iowa State. Milan at the four creates a lot of mismatches, and he’s got the size and strength to matchup with most forwards in the SEC. This could create more minutes on the wing for Kam Williams, and even Braydon Hawthorne, who redshirted last year but was a well regarded recruit with a lot of upside. Williams is the most obvious beneficiary, and his shooting would give two high level shooters on the floor with Momcilovic.
Both Zoom Diallo, and Alex Wilkins are accustomed to having the ball in their hands, so backup point guard minutes may be hard to come by. Any substitution would just move the other onto the ball. However Mason Williams was a 4-star recruit, and is the son of former NBA veteran Mo Williams, who is also a Kentucky assistant. Guys like that tend to know how to play, regardless of their recruiting ranking.
But it’s clear this team is going to go with a lot of Malachi Moreno, Momcilovic, and their two guards.
Like everyone we’re going to comment on how many Quad 4 games the Wildcats play at home. Eight, depending on what James Madison ends up being this season. But at least seven, which is a lot. Seven is high enough. JMU and Wichita State will put up a good fight, but still games Kentucky should win without much problem. Having annual games against Indiana, Louisville, and the Champions Classic — where they play Kansas this season — plugs up a lot of holes for high major games in their schedule. Then there’s also the ACC-SEC Challenge where the Cats travel to Virginia where the Cavaliers look like a potential top 10 level team in Ryan Odom’s second year. They also play North Carolina at Madison Square Garden, and I think UNC will be better than the analytics do.
So a lot of Quad 4 level games, but five really good high level Q1 games.
The good news for the Wildcats is the entry into SEC play is about as agreeable as you could hope. Traveling to Norman to open conference play isn’t easy, but that’s a winnable game. But they have seven winnable to start the conference before heading to Texas in what should be their first likely loss. Getting Tennessee and Vanderbilt twice should both be Quad 1 level games on either side. The road slate isn’t a walk through, with OU, Mizzou, Texas, Georgia and Florida all capable. And Kentucky’s been a little more vulnerable at home, so they need to make sure they’re locked in for LSU, Alabama, Arkansas (I doubt this one will be a problem to be ready for), Auburn, and Texas A&M.
THE RULING
Despite the initial ranking here, this Kentucky team can be really very good. There is good reason to be skeptical for full buy in, when Pope hasn’t really hit a home run with a roster yet. Even his first roster seemed to play a lot better once Kerr Kriisa got hurt. Last year, talent wasn’t the problem. You could point to a lack of ball handling once Lowe was injured, but UK didn’t have a turnover problem. They weren’t even that bad, they just weren’t very good either.
This offseason, while Pope was missing on a lot of his first options, he still managed to put together a nice pool of talent. That’s the thing about Kentucky, the brand and the finances. Even in a year where things didn’t work out with option A, option B is still really good.
But these pieces need to fit together somehow. And the biggest unknowns surround the ball handling, again.
Diallo has been an incredibly high usage guard at Washington the last two seasons, and Washington hasn’t been a very good basketball team. Despite a lot of talent. UW had Hannes Steinbach, a lottery pick in the NBA Draft, and Diallo, and went 16-17 on the season. Diallo has always been talented, but his shooting numbers drag down his overall efficiency.
Then there’s Alex Wilkins, who was terrific in the Big South his freshman season, but again mostly as a creator and non-shooter.
How do two non-shooting high usage guards fit next to each other?
The front court should be pretty set with the only real question mark being what the Wildcats get out of Ousmane N’Diaye. International players have been hit and miss, and even with N’Diaye on the roster and seeing him in practice, Kentucky was dogged in their pursuit of Mizzou forward Mark Mitchell, before the SEC stepped in. Mitchell would have provided the on thing really missing on this roster and that’s a forward who can attack the rim. As it is they have a lot of good parts, but can this team come together as a whole unit in a way that makes them one of the 3 or 4 most dangerous teams in the SEC this season?
Worst case scenario here is the Wildcats are just decent and make the NCAA Tournament, that might be enough to end the run for Pope as head coach. But if things go well, if Momcilovic is an All American and Moreno takes a step forward, and Diallo and Wilkins co-exist, Kentucky should be in contention for a protected seed, and that will be enough to extend Pope’s stay.
My Results: Kentucky Wildcats — 8th in conference, 10-8
About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections, and national media outlet predictions.
Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.
The projections: In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be, we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.
GLOSSARY
* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player
GP – Games Played
%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury
%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.
ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.
BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.
PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.
PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.
For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.
