Northwestern 2025
Head Coach: David Braun
Record: 4-2
Conference Record: 2-1
Best Win: 21-21 @Penn State on October 11th
Worst Loss: 3-23 @Tulane on August 3oth
What Does Northwestern Want to Do?
Offense:
The Wildcats want to run the ball, then run the ball again,
and if they get an opportunity, run the ball once more. They used 42 rushing attempts last week to pull the upset over Penn State and summon the head coaching reaper to Happy Valley.
The strength of their team lies in the offensive line. Northwestern Head Coach David Braun has proven adept at maximizing his team’s strengths while attacking the opposition’s weaknesses during his tenure in Evanston. This year, he wants to hand the ball to his running back duo of Joseph Himon II (the speed back) and Caleb Komolafe (power back) and let them tuck in behind the offensive line until the other team yells uncle.
George Bernard Shaw once said, “Never wrestle with a pig; you both get dirty and the pig enjoys it.”
Penn State tried to wrestle the pig last weekend and didn’t enjoy the results. Northwestern’s running game wasn’t explosive, but it was brutally efficient. Out of 42 attempts, they only had one run over ten yards in the now extremely Unhappy Valley, but 10 runs ended in first downs. It appears Northwestern understands that if you average a little over 3 1/3 yards a carry, starting on first down, you end up with a first down.
More specifically, Northwestern made its living in the “A” gap last week. They ran the ball 16 times on either side of their center for 68 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, it’s where they picked up five of their ten rushing first downs. If they can run in the “A” gaps successfully against the Boilermakers, it will be a long day at the offense of Barry Odom’s crew.
I think the game plan is simple for Coach Braun in this one. They’re going to run the ball and hope quarterback Preston Stone can cobble together enough drive-extending completions to keep their offensive line on the field as long as possible. That’s their best unit, and the longer they play, the better they get.
Defense:
Northwestern, if nothing else, plays complementary football. They want to bore you into making a mistake on both sides of the ball. They’re not a defense that gets after the quarterback; they are tied for 110th in the nation, averaging 1.5 a game. They’re also not a defense that makes plays behind the line of scrimmage. They’re 128th in tackles for loss, averaging 3.8 per contest. They’re also not a defense that gets off the field on third down. They’re 101st in the nation in third-down defense, with their opponents converting on 42% of their third-down opportunities.
At the same time, in their two Big 10 wins, UCLA could only muster 14 points on their defense, and the Nittany Lions could only manufacture 21. Against the Bruins, they were the ultimate bend / don’t break defense.
Look at these UCLA drives:
2nd Quarter
14 plays – 47 yards – 7:05 off the clock – Turnover on Downs
13 plays – 73 yards – 3:26 off the clock – Field Goal
3rd Quarter
12 plays – 73 yards – 6:12 off the clock – Field Goal
Now Check Out These Penn State Drives
2nd Quarter
12 Plays – 87 Yards – 6:11 off the clock – Touchdown
9 Plays – 26 Yards – 4:20 off the clock – Touchdown
Even when the Nittany Lions scored, it was a fist fight all the way to the endzone. You don’t see many 26-yard touchdown drives that require nine plays. Against Penn State, they made James Franklin’s former squad earn every inch of territory, and when Drew Allar finally managed to hook up with Devonte Ross for a 67-yard pass that set up a six-play, 91-yard drive to take a 21-16 lead, the Wildcat offense responded with a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive.
That’s what I mean by play complementary football. When Northwestern’s offense needed a drive, it responded. When Purdue’s offense needed a drive against Minnesota, Ryan Browne threw a pick-six. That was the difference in the game.
Northwestern’s defense wants to allow its opposition to make a mistake on every drive, and UCLA and Penn State made enough mistakes to keep them out of the endzone consistently. The Wildcats aren’t going to give Purdue anything. If the Boilermakers want to score, they’re going to need to find a way to manufacture big plays because scoring on extended drives isn’t exactly a Boilermaker strength.
What Does Purdue Want to Do?
Offense
Purdue has to find a way to manufacture a few big plays in this game because I don’t trust the offense to cash in long drives. Inevitably, a lineman is going to hold, a receiver is going to drop a pass, or Ryan Browne is going to throw it to the wrong team. If this game comes down to a battle of 12 play drives, the Boilermakers will lose.
That means the offense has to find a way to get its playmakers the ball in space. Northwestern isn’t going to give you anything over the top of their defense. They will play two deep safeties and keep everything in front of them. When teams get anxious and cut one loose deep into double coverage, they pick it off.
Instead of Purdue trying to throw it over the Northwestern defense, I think the Boilermakers will have more luck getting the ball to their playmakers going across the field and letting them make the plays. I’d like to see Tuggle, Jackson, and Branch get the ball running away from coverage and see if they can turn the ball up the field and make a big play with their legs.
The same goes for Ryan Browne and Malachi Singelton. Tulane’s quarterback had over 100 rushing yards on only ten attempts. The Boilermakers have two quarterbacks who can also make big plays in the run game on either scrambles or designed runs.
Northwestern isn’t going to give anything away, but Purdue has enough athletes to take what they want if, and this is a big if, they can find some room to run.
Defense
They’ve got to make a play when a play is available to be made. It’s that simple.
Northwestern is going to run the ball. They’re going to pick up first downs. Purdue can’t get frustrated and give up big plays because they’re tired of the Wildcats picking up 10.7 yards every three plays. This team isn’t immune to turnovers; in fact, Tulane picked off Preston Stone four times in their opening loss. What Tulane did that UCLA and Penn State couldn’t is make plays on defense when they were available.
If the linebacker needed to rally to the ball and stop a Northwestern receiver a yard short of the first town, he rallied to the ball and made the stop. He didn’t let the Wildcat runner fall forward for a first down.
When Preston Stone threw the ball to a defensive back, the defensive back caught the ball instead of proving why they play defensive back and wide receiver.
When a Northwestern running back fumbles, the defense needs to jump on top of the ball instead of acting like they’re at a greased pig contest at the fair.
Long story short, they have to find a way off the field because I’m reasonably confident Purdue is going to lose a low-score / low-possession game against Northwestern.
It All Boils Down to This
Can Purdue’s defense make enough drive-stopping plays to keep Northwestern’s offensive line from dominating the game?
Can Purdue’s offense find a way to get its skill players in space and make plays with their legs after the catch.
If they can do both of those things without committing another soul-crushing turnover, that makes me question what Jeff Brohm offered the football Gods to make the Big 1o Championship they have enough talent to win this game.
If Northwestern can dominate the game with its offensive line, make Purdue’s offense watch from the sideline, and then punish the Boilermakers when they get bored / anxious and overly aggressive, it’ll be another a fourth straight Wildcat victory.
I can’t tell you how the game is going to end, but I can guarantee that if Purdue loses, it won’t cost them 50 million dollars. That’s not nothing.
Boiler Up and Hope for the Best!
