Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Huskie Stadium — DeKalb, IL
- Spread: San Diego State (-1.5)
- Over/under: 43.5
- All-time series: San Diego State leads, 6-0
- Last meeting: San Diego State 34, Northern Illinois 28 — September 30, 2017
- Current streak: San Diego State, 6 (1967-17)
Setting the scene
Before you ask, no, this is not a future Mountain West matchup. San Diego State is heading to the Pac-12 at the simultaneous instant Northern Illinois joins the Mountain West. Thus, this is just an ordinary non-conference meeting between the red and black opponents that enjoyed sustained success throughout the 2010s decade.
While NIU and San Diego State recently played a home-and-home in 2016 and 2017, the key storyline between the two programs involves the head coaches. Thomas Hammock and Sean Lewis
squared off against each other twice during the 2021 season, including the 2021 MAC Championship Game when Hammock’s Huskies defeated Lewis and Kent State. The coaches meet for the first time since, with Hammock serving as the host in DeKalb.
San Diego State Aztecs outlook
San Diego State (2-1, 0-0 Mountain West) just completely flipped the narrative of its season, the outlook of the Sean Lewis era, and perhaps the trajectory of the program. The Aztecs took a brutal 36-13 defeat to Washington State in Week 2, but all the struggles from that matchup were suddenly erased in an inspiring Week 4 showing. Fresh off a bye week, San Diego State destroyed an undefeated California squad, producing a 34-0 shutout — the program’s first since FBS competition since its 2016 Mountain West championship season.
First, let’s address what went wrong at Washington State. The offense created a 7-0 lead and completely faltered, facing five three-and-outs thanks to the inability to ignite the run. San Diego State faced routine third-and-longs thanks to the struggles on the ground, finishing 2-of-13 on third down while trying to make up for unproductive first and second down plays. Meanwhile, the Cougars capitalized on routinely excellent field position and thrived primarily through the passing attack in the 23-point win.
Now, here’s what went right in the shutout vs. Cal. San Diego State’s pressure and coverage worked together in perfect harmony. The Aztecs notched four sacks and also deflected 10 passes, causing Cal to finish 18-of-41 through the air with two interceptions. San Diego State scored two touchdowns defensively and also set the tone by denying the Golden Bears from the end zone on a 19-play, 75-yard opening drive that consumed over 10 minutes. The offense didn’t even score until the second quarter, but all it needed was two touchdowns and two field goals in the one-sided blowout.
The takeaway from those games against legacy Pac-12 opponents? San Diego State’s defense must start strong, and then everything else will fall in place. Northern Illinois is a run-heavy team so this starts with clogging the gaps on first and second down. Owen Chambliss has been the Aztecs’ premier run-stopper in the early going, producing 24 tackles and two tackles for loss through three games. Another pertinent defender is Trey White, a star pass rusher and capable edge-setter vs. the run. White led all Mountain West players with 12.5 sacks a year ago and ranked fifth in the FBS as a whole.
Although Lewis was renowned for his explosive, up-tempo offenses at Kent State. The same “AztecFast” style translated to Mountain West country, but the results are still a work in progress. The Aztecs rank 108th in total offense with their spread offense. There is a lot less RPO than Lewis employed at Kent State and the rushing is primarily handled by the tailbacks Lucky Sutton and Christian Washington.
Starting quarterback Jayden Denegal isn’t involved heavily in the run, and San Diego State sometimes inserts Central Michigan transfer Bert Emanuel Jr. to incorporate the element of the QB run game. But Denegal isn’t afraid to take deep shots. The quarterback has 529 passing yards and three touchdowns on the year without an interception, and his 58.9 completion percentage speaks to the throws he attempts. Jordan Napier is his preferred target, comfortably leading San Diego State with 19 receptions for 241 yards.
Northern Illinois Huskies outlook
Northern Illinois (1-2, 0-0 MAC) remains in search of its first FBS win of the season after falling short on a pair of road trips. The Huskies’ defense fought hard in the first halves against Maryland and Mississippi State but ultimately bowed out of both contests during this two-game losing stretch. Against Mississippi State, a CVS receipt of impressive defensive streaks finally concluded. NIU snapped its 6-game streak of holding opponents to 20 or under, 19-game streak of holding opponents to 30 or under, and 28-game streak of not allowing as many as 38.
NIU prefers to involve itself in low-scoring, defensive-oriented affairs like last year’s famous 16-14 upset at Notre Dame. The Huskies still need to prove they have the offense to keep up in another style game. Through three games, the team hasn’t broken 20 points and averages 12.7 points per game to rank second-to-last in the country. NIU scored exactly one offensive touchdown in all three games this year, leaving much more to be desired from the unit.
The Huskies are a pound-the-rock, control-the-clock team when it comes to offensive strategy. NIU wants to employ the running backs as much as possible, and it is one of 29 teams to average at least 41 rushing attempts per game. Chavon Wright and Telly Johnson Jr. earn the bulk of the carries, producing 214 yards on 51 attempts and 199 yards on 37 attempts, respectively. Wright is the more methodical rusher to pick up chunk yardage, while Johnson presents more of an explosive threat — landing the occasional breakaway run.
In short-yardage situations, NIU’s o-line and running scheme often pick up the necessary yardage. The Huskies attempt fourth downs quite often for this reason and they’re currently tied for 10th in the FBS in number of attempts — converting 6-of-11. The issue for NIU involves facing long-distance situations on third down. The team ranks seventh-to-last in the FBS in third down conversion percentage at 28.3, and the lack of explosiveness in the passing game is one reason why.
Quarterback Josh Holst did enjoy his best start of the season at Mississippi State, firing for a season-high 135 yards and his first touchdown in the defeat. His overwhelmingly preferred target is DeAree Rogers, a Division II transfer with more than double the receptions (16) and more than triple the yardage (173) of the next closest Huskie.
NIU is most established defensively where it features a talented defensive line and linebacking corps. Roy Williams is a reigning Second Team All-MAC selection at defensive end, and he’ll look to create first level stops against the San Diego State run game. Meanwhile, Quinn Urwiler and Filip Maciorowski lead the linebacking corps as NIU’s top tacklers, combining for 54 stops. But as good as the Huskies are at producing stops, they need more turnover production to provide the offense shorter fields. NIU only has two takeaways through three games, and both transpired well into Huskie territory.
Northern Illinois doesn’t need to travel too far into San Diego State territory to unleash Sean Lewis’ former kicker Andrew Glass. The All-MAC Kent State transfer is 4-of-5 on the year, and he finished 15-of-17 in his last full season with the Golden Flashes.
Prediction
Don’t expect many points or touchdowns as this one has low-scoring defensive slugfest written all over it. Neither offense has consistently moved the ball downfield, but both defenses have stonewalled their opponents for stretches. Jump-starting the run game won’t be easy against either defensive unit in DeKalb, and there should be a handful of three-and-outs and occasional turnovers in this contest.
San Diego State’s more dynamic offense gives the Aztecs an edge on the road, two time zones east from home. Sean Lewis and Co. walk away with a hard-fought, one-score victory thanks to a few successful Jayden Denegal downfield shots, improving to 3-1 on the season.
Prediction: San Diego State 19, Northern Illinois 13
