Happy Sunday.
As fans watch playoff hockey, there are a couple things certain to be on their mind. First and foremost will be how physical the games get. For a certain type of Devils fan looking at our roster, they will see guys like Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt and wonder how they are going to survive the playoffs when they make it back. Second will be the quality of depth that other teams get out of their forwards. Most of the teams in the playoffs do not have one-line attacks: the best playoff teams,
and the ones to watch out for, are those with great second and third lines.
But what about fourth lines?
The traditional model of a fourth line is that of a more defensive, physical group. They may be more proficient at forechecking, and most of their goals will be of the greasy type. Deflections, crashes, and the like account for most of what people would consider to be traditional fourth line offensive contributions. Many hockey coaches over the past several years have adopted a model where these lines play more often. The concept of “rolling four lines” theoretically leads to more rested players and more sustainable play throughout the game.
There is a big problem with that for the New Jersey Devils. As every tuned-in hockey fan knows, they have one of the best top six center duos in the league in Nico Hischier with Jack Hughes. But what some may not have caught onto yet is that they have a third center who has been undersold as a bottom six center in Cody Glass who has shown signs of possessing top six capability. Just over a month ago, I wrote about why Glass and Arseny Gritsyuk deserved increased roles on the team, and I said there:
Glass is not producing dangerous shots like a low-end defensive third-line center, he is producing shots like a high-end two-way second line center while playing low-end third-line minutes. The only Devils who are better at producing center-lane dangerous shots at a higher rate than Cody Glass are Nico Hischier and Timo Meier, who have 70 and 61 inner-slot shots, respectively, compared to Jack Hughes’s 42 and Glass’s 37. Of those players, only Cody Glass converts on those chances above league average…Glass could easily make it so the fourth line only has to play a few minutes each night if he played more at five-on-five, and he has shown time and time again that he is effective on special teams when given the opportunity.
The question that Sunny Mehta needs to answer this offseason is not which players can do more with 10 or 12 minutes per game. Replacing Maxim Tsyplakov with a better fourth line version is not going to tip the scales, sending the Devils from being a lottery team to a Stanley Cup finalist. Instead, Mehta should be looking for three guys to play 16, 17, 18 or more minutes each night behind the presently-established top six. We have already been able to identify Cody Glass and Arseny Gritsyuk as guys who can play to larger roles, but there is still a missing piece. Is it Lenni Hameenaho? Maybe, but he needs to show quite a bit of offensive growth in year two, and I do not think the Devils should rely on him making that jump. To Hameenaho’s credit, though, he was dealt a rough hand with some of the highest defensive usage rates on the team despite his rookie status. The Devils also have Stefan Noesen in recovery, but I would wait to see what he looks like in camp before giving him that much ice time.
But my vision for Cody Glass getting nearly as much ice time as Hischier and Hughes relies on that third line becoming a group that is difficult to play against on each end. Last July, I wrote about the penalty kill and how top offensive players like Nico Hischier could be relied on less in favor of depth players with stronger defensive metrics. This part is of note:
If the Devils’ top penalty killers remain Hischier, Bratt, and Mercer, and two of those players remain ineffective penalty killers, the Devils are wasting their minutes. Over the course of a game or season, how much more fatigued is Nico Hischier because he takes top penalty killing matchups? Taking him out of that role might hurt his chances of winning a Selke award, but there are either two roads there. Either Nico improves as a penalty killer and actually puts himself into that conversation, or the team pulls back on those minutes to put him in more offensive situations, where he thrives most.
Sheldon Keefe went in the opposite direction here, playing Nico Hischier more than any other Devils forward on the penalty kill. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Devils’ results with Nico on the ice on the penalty kill were decent, but not nearly as good as they were when Lindy Ruff was behind the bench.
- 2022-23: 2:07 PK TOI/GP, 1.77 SHG/60, 6 PPGA/60 (-4.23 G/PK60)
- 2023-24: 1:27 PK TOI/GP, 0.62 SHG/60, 4.31 PPGA/60 (-3.69 G/PK60)
- 2024-25: 2:05 PK TOI/GP, 0.78 SHG/60, 11.64 PPGA/60 (-10.86 G/PK60)
- 2025-26: 1:56 PK TOI/GP, 1.21 SHG/60, 8.44 PPGA/60 (-7.23 G/PK60)
With Hischier playing so much on the penalty kill, how much was the bottom six playing at five-on-five? While Jack Hughes was up at 16:39 of five-on-five ice time per game, Nico Hischier was at 14:39, with Cody Glass at 12:07 and Nick Bjugstad at 9:24 (or Lammikko at 9:45 and Glendening at 8:14). Let’s compare that to the Edmonton Oilers, where Connor McDavid played 16:56 per game, followed by Leon Draisaitl at 16:01, Jack Roslovic at 14:06, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at 13:16. Adam Henrique sat at 10:45 per game, while Curtis Lazar was at 8:20. Those six played the most at center for the Oilers, but they like to load up their lines, position be damned at times. We can also compare to the Colorado Avalanche, who added Nazem Kadri to be their third-line center. Since that trade, Mackinnon has played 16:22 per game, followed by Brock Nelson at 13:22, Kadri at 13:15, and Jack Drury at 11:13. Of note here, though, is that Drury played most of the season on the third line before the Kadri acquisition. When Zakhar Bardakov was the fourth-line center, he only played 7:02 per game.
The point is, the Devils can do a lot to get their offensive threats more ice time, while relying on depth less at five-on-five. Those two or three minutes might not seem like much, but those are three, four, or five shifts that could turn from fourth line defensive nightmares to more opportunities for scorers to score. But what is the difference between a fourth-line shift and a first-line shift, anyway? Despite the fourth line this year almost never being used as a shutdown group, matching up pretty consistently against other fourth lines around the league, they were destroyed. Let’s compare their most consistent member, Paul Cotter, to Glass, Hischier, and Hughes at five-on-five by real and expected on-ice results:
- Cotter: 10:17 5v5 TOI/GP, 1.11 GF/60, 3.02 GA/60 (-1.89 G/60), 2.06 xGF/60, 2.87 xGA/60 (41.81 xGF%)
- Glass: 12:07 5v5 TOI/GP, 2.69 GF/60, 2.33 GA/60 (+0.36 G/60), 2.44 xGF/60, 2.55 xGA/60 (48.89 xGF%)
- Hischier: 14:39 5v5 TOI/GP, 1.85 GF/60, 2.5 GA/60 (-0.65 G/60), 3.21 xGF/60, 2.61 xGA/60 (55.12 xGF%)
- Hughes: 16:39 5v5 TOI/GP, 2.54 GF/60, 2.89 GA/60 (-0.45 G/60), 3.06 xGF/60, 2.61 xGA/60 (53.91 xGF%)
If the fourth line is going to put up results like the ones they did this season, they need to play far fewer minutes at five-on-five. What should be a line that has little overall impact on the course of the season was a genuine burden because of the gulf of disparity between their offensive production and defensive play. I now hope that Nick Bjugstad can add some stability to that fourth line, but he also has some occasional value up the lineup as a faceoff man.
But if the Devils really want to maximize the results they get out of this roster, Hughes, Hischier and Glass should all be playing around 16 minutes at five-on-five each game. Cody Glass impacts the game on a defensive level like nobody else on the team, and the Devils could have a great 1-2-3 punch there if they all actually get the ice time. For Glass, playing 16 minutes at five-on-five each night means over 300 more minutes of ice time over a full season. That could be the difference between Glass chipping in an extra five, six, or seven goals or Nick Bjugstad scoring two or three in the same minutes. Also, per HockeyViz, Glass’s defensive impact this season made him the fourth “first-line” quality player on the team, alongside Hischier, Hughes, and Jesper Bratt.
So how do we get Cody Glass more ice time to see the extent of this defensive impact, and how well it translates into top six or true shutdown use? Following the Oilers’ lead here would be a great idea in my opinion, as they are not shy about mixing centers together. Using Glass on the faceoff man for Jack Hughes in offensive faceoff situations or on Hischier’s wing or in defensive ones, where he can take draws on his strong side, would be good uses of his skills. By reducing the faceoff load that the top six centers have to take, Glass would both help protect their health and improve the win rate on Jack Hughes’s faceoffs.
Nico Hischier winning 1,000 faceoffs is a cool note, but it is not something I would want to see repeated. Hischier is more than willing to scrum for the puck in the dot, and giving him all of these faceoffs is a tad excessive. By comparison, Cody Glass did not even take 1,000 total faceoffs. He took 896. Jack Hughes, as much as his faceoff ability is blasted, took a mere 418 faceoffs. Nico Hischier took 1,808 draws and was kicked out of plenty more. In reality, Hischier and Glass probably should not be taking too different a number of draws. They both win them at a high rate, with Hischier at 55.8% and Glass at 54.0%, which should not have much of an impact on team success.
Other players, like Timo Meier (45.6%, 125 draws), Nick Bjugstad (49.9%, 351 draws), and Stefan Noesen (48.3%, 118 draws since 2024) can also reduce the faceoff load on the top centers. But Bjugstad’s manner of offensive play makes him less of a fit for top six faceoff shifts than Glass, as Glass is far more proficient at setting screens and deflecting the puck despite Bjugstad’s stature. Over the three last seasons:
- Bjugstad: five deflection goals, 70 deflection attempts (career high was three, achieved in 2014-15, 2017-18 and 2023-24)
- Noesen: eight deflection goals, 135 deflection attempts (career high was four, achieved in 2017-18, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25)
- Glass: nine deflection goals, 64 deflection attempts (career high was six on 46 attempts in 2022-23)
- Meier: 10 deflection goals, 151 deflection attempts (career high was seven on 61 attempts in 2022-23)
Something pretty consistent about Cody Glass throughout his still-short career has been that he is very good at parking in front of the net and tipping the puck past the goaltender at a rate generally much higher than average, and he added more goals on wrist shots around the net this season. The only year in which Cody Glass had fewer than two deflection goals was when he had zero on 7 attempts in 2019-20, his rookie season, along with 2021-22, when he only played eight games. Since then, 15 of his 45 goals have come on deflections. For everyone out there saying that Cody Glass is not going to have as high a shooting percentage next season, this season could actually be a sign of what is yet to come. When a player has a single season where they have a certain type of goal, like deflections, way above expected, it might be a fluke. When a player converts his deflections past the goalie far better than league average for four seasons in a row, it might be a skill. The Devils would be wise to leverage that with Jack Hughes, who loves a lot of space to zip around the offensive zone and shoot through traffic. Their short time together this season was also fruitful, per Natural Stat Trick:
- Hughes with Hischier: 130:43 TOI, 59.34 CF%, 71-52 shots advantage, 4-5 goals disadvantage, 63.15 xGF%
- Hughes with Glass: 40:13 TOI, 61.73 CF%, 26-14 shots advantage, 4-2 goals advantage, 62.22 xGF%
Watching Hughes and Hischier play together all these years, I do not know when the goal breakthrough at five-on-five is going to happen. I think it will happen one day, but it just has not come yet. So why not try out Cody Glass sometimes?
Playing Glass up the lineup means less time for Dawson Mercer, Connor Brown, and Timo Meier with Hischier and Hughes at times. That is perfectly fine by me. As long as the fourth line becomes less prioritized in this, those three can maintain their total ice time and pick up shifts where they add scoring threat to the bottom six. And, as mentioned earlier, the missing ninth player of the top three lines means there is still a bit of a hole in the lineup, and it is unclear if Lenni Hameenaho is completely ready to be the solution or if Stefan Noesen is healthy enough to regain his old form, so those top six wingers can pick up minutes in that spot if this continues to remain an issue due to cap constraints. Regardless, if you thought Paul Cotter looked good protecting the puck against fourth-line competition and scoring goals in between his line’s defensive misadventures this season, someone like Timo Meier can easily add several goals by double shifting onto the third and fourth lines if Cody Glass picks up his usual defensive zone shifts with Hischier.
So what happens to the fourth line? The best thing that Sunny Mehta can do here if he wants to boost offensive deployment for his best players is seek out more penalty killers, and it’s a bonus if he can find players who can take faceoffs. Adam Henrique was a good penalty killer in Edmonton this season and could certainly be on his way out there after a rough offensive season. He won 54% of his draws and probably won’t shoot 3.3% again, old or not. Maybe Jansen Harkins, a pure fourth liner on the Ducks with penalty killing potential and a 52.9% career win rate in the dot, could be an option. As long as Sunny Mehta gets some sort of fourth liners who can win faceoffs and kill penalties while not demanding much five-on-five ice time, I will be happy because it means we are that much closer to getting the best deployment possible out of the best players on the team.
John Madden is not sitting around in free agency, though. Sheldon Keefe will still have to get the best out of guys like Hischier and Glass, alongside his best defensive winger in Dawson Mercer in high-leverage defensive situations at the ends of games. But in the first period, Nico Hischier doesn’t need to be diving around blocking shots on the penalty kill. He needs to be on the ice at five-on-five scoring goals.
The problem with fourth liners like Paul Cotter is he is only good when scoring goals at five-on-five, and he generates those chances and goals far less efficiently than the true offensive threats on the team do. The solution for a team with two high-end offensive centers and a strong two-way third-line center may very well be to run a fourth line that only plays four, five, or six minutes at five-on-five while handling large chunks of penalty killing. Tom Fitzgerald had the right idea when signing Luke Glendening, but Keefe overplayed Glendening a tad bit at five-on-five, and his even strength play was so rotten that his penalty killing ability was not worth the downsides.
There is nothing stopping an NHL head coach from running three centers 20 minutes a night. If one can do it, two can do it. If two can do it, three can do it. With the thin talent pool available for fourth lines in this league, teams need to take advantage of their best players and their skills.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of the role of fourth lines in today’s game? Do you agree with looking for reduced fourth liner roles, using them more situationally, or do you think they should play a bigger role at five-on-five in “setting the tone?” How would acquiring another true middle six forward impact this issue? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.
