There were some sketchy moments over the past two games, but the Pittsburgh Penguins kept their winning streak going this past week with a 6-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday night and a 6-5
win over the New York Rangers on Saturday afternoon. The week got off to a rocky start with a sloppy first period against the Blackhawks before they flipped the switch and absolutely steamrolled them over the remaining 40 minutes. Saturday’s game against the Rangers was pretty much the exact opposite as they dominated the first 44 minutes and jumped out to a 5-1 lead, before having to cling to a one-goal lead in the closing seconds after allowing four third period goals.
The third period goals against are concerning given what this team has done previously this season, but they still managed to get the two points. They enter this week having won six games in a row, seven of their past eight games and have at least one point in each of their past nine games. That has them sitting on Monday with the sixth-best points percentage in the entire NHL and the third-best points percentage in the Eastern Conference.
Lately, they have done what you would expect a good team to do and beat up on teams below them in the standings.
This week the schedule gets a little bit tougher with three pretty significant games against potential Eastern Conference playoff contenders as they go into the Olympic break.
The week begins on Monday night, at home, against the Ottawa Senators.
From a record and standings perspective, the Senators have been one of the more disappointing teams in the NHL this season having gone from a playoff spot in 2024-25, to a team that is struggling to stay in contention. But their record is also a little misleading and not a great reflection of the way the team has played.
There might not be a team in the NHL that has been hurt by goaltending more than them.
Ottawa is a top-10 goal-scoring team this season (ninth in the NHL at 3.33 goals per game) with a 54.01 percent expected goals share during 5-on-5 play (fourth-best in the NHL). They do a lot of things well, and have typically controlled the pace of play in their games.
They just can not get a save. From anybody. The Senators enter play on Monday with an all-situations team save percentage of just .868, which is 32nd out of 32 teams in the NHL. With even adequate or league average goaltending this might be a playoff team again. This is not a game to be taken lightly, especially with the Senators coming in having won three games in a row, outscoring their opponents by a 16-4 margin. It is also worth noting that two of those wins were against the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche.
They are capable of playing very well. Lately, they are. They are also finally getting some saves. Ottawa won the first meeting this season by a 4-0 margin, in Ottawa, back in December.
The Penguins then have a quick turnaround with a back-to-back situation on Tuesday night when they travel to Long Island for a massive game against the New York Islanders.
The Islanders are right behind the Penguins for the second spot in the Metropolitan Division.
Entering play on Monday, the Penguins are two points ahead of the Islanders for that second spot with two games in hand.
The Islanders also play on Monday night against the Washington Capitals (at Washington), so both teams will be playing the second half of a back-to-back with travel. That helps even things out for both teams.
The outcomes of Monday’s games could really change the stakes for that Tuesday game on Long Island.
A Penguins win, combined with an Islanders loss, would give the Penguins a four-point lead over the Islanders going into Tuesday’s game (with still two games in hand) and give them a chance to take a really commanding lead in that race for the second spot in the Metropolitan Division.
A Penguins loss on Monday, combined with an Islanders win, would draw the Islanders even in terms of total points and give them a chance to move ahead on Tuesday with a win.
There is potentially a lot happening there.
This Islanders team is also winning in the most New York Islanders way imaginable. They do not really do anything particularly well. They are not a great offensive team. They are 32nd out of 32 teams in expected goals against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. They are 29th in the NHL in expected goal share during 5-on-5 play.
So how are they winning and staying in the race? It is the goaltending. Ilya Sorokin is playing out of his mind, and after a couple of down years (by his standards, anyway) he is back to playing like one of the truly elite goalies in the NHL.
They also have Matthew Schaefer. The No. 1 overall pick has stepped right into the NHL and made an almost unbelievable impact. We really have not seen an 18-year-old defenseman impact games and a team the way he has in decades. If ever. He is legit. He is the real deal. The Penguins won the first meeting of the season by a 4-3 margin in their home opener.
The Penguins then close out their pre-Olympic break schedule on Thursday with a road game at the Buffalo Sabres. It was not even two months ago that game looked like a potential win that you could pencil in given how bad the Sabres started the season and how they looked like every other Sabres team from the past 14-15 years. Lately, though, they have been one of the hottest and best teams in the league, look like a playoff team, and are playing like a playoff team. That is not going to be an easy game.
Not only is Buffalo playing exceptionally well, it also has some really high-level players that can take over games in forward Tage Thompson and defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. The Penguins won the first meeting of the season against the Sabres, in Pittsburgh, but it was not one of their crisper or cleaner games.
This is going to be a challenging week, not only in terms of opponent, but also because of going on the road and having another back-to-back situation. The good news: They will have Bryan Rust back for Tuesday’s game against the Islanders, even if that creates a lineup crunch that will probably take Rutger McGroarty out of the lineup. If the Penguins can get three or four points out of this week, that would be a fine result and really keep their momentum going into the Olympic break and keep them in a great position in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
