At least I didn’t have to write “Braves tumble” into St. Louis, though the status of their tumbling remains a distinct possibility. The Braves righted the ship, or at least gave the appearance of righting the ship, a bit in Pittsburgh earlier this week, winning a series for the first time since June 19-21. After starting the season 18-2-1 in terms of series performance, the Braves are just 2-6-1 since (with possibly flipping one of those losses to a tie thanks to a rainout). One of those six recent
series losses came against the Cardinals in Atlanta, and the Braves will get a chance to return the favor in St. Louis this weekend, before everyone heads off into the All-Star Break.
The Cardinals did not have a particularly fun time after departing Atlanta. They did take a series from their archrivals, the Cubs… but then lost four of five to the Brewers, putting a sizable dent in their playoff odds (from about 40 percent to about 30 percent). Before the Brewers had their way, the Cardinals held onto the NL’s last playoff spot with a one-game lead over the Marlins; now, they’re three games in what’s become a bit less of a logjam: the three NL Wild Card teams are separated by half a game, with the Braves three games ahead of them… but the Cardinals are part of a second tier of pseudo-contenders a bit further back.
Overall, the Cardinals are 14th in position player fWAR and 21st in pitching fWAR, which doesn’t suggest particularly useful production. However, they have two more wins than suggested by their run differential, and are three wins over what’s indicated by their BaseRuns, so that more or less explains that.
The Braves will have their one “steady” rotation member on the hill for this one, which is good news. But, Chris Sale will need to bounce back a bit, as his most recent outing was one of his worst in a Braves uniform. Sale lasted just five innings against the Mets, allowing two homers and posting a 3/2 K/BB ratio in a blowout win. The performance didn’t really matter in the context of the game, but in a vacuum, it wasn’t great. Sale’s FIP was his second-worst of the season, and his xFIP- for the start was 123 — only the second time this year he’s gone above 100, the only time this season he’s gone above 105, and his fourth-worst mark in any start as a Brave. Sale generally tends to get back to dominance after a poor outing, so there’s no reason to expect anything different here.
Sale has somehow managed to avoid the Cardinals as a Brave thus far, and, in fact, has faced them just twice in his career: once in 2015, and once in 2023. He dominated both times.
On the flip side, the Braves will take aim at 29-year-old Kyle Leahy, whom they didn’t see in Atlanta. Leahy spent 2024 and 2025 pitching long-ish relief for St. Louis, but has ascended to the rotation after some pretty good work in 2025 (1.4 fWAR in 88 innings, though a lot of that coming as a result of a low HR/FB). This season, Leahy’s stats are minorly weird: a 93 ERA-, 99 FIP-, and 101 xFIP- are all consistent, but he has this absolutely horrid xERA. Generally, xERA for pitchers doesn’t mean much because it’s so heavily influenced by the batters a pitcher faces, whose exit velocity tends to be more batter-derived than pitcher-influenced and factors into a large part of xERA… but seeing a guy with very generic peripherals and horrendous contact quality is not rare but still kinda weird, especially considering that Leahy didn’t have any contact management issues in 2024-2025.
Overall, Leahy is a true junkballer (legit six-pitch mix) who gets elite extension that makes his mid-90s fastball play up a bit. His pitch shapes don’t look good on paper, but are mitigated somewhat by him offering a harder set of secondaries than batters are generally used to. He has very good command of his four-seamer, sinker, and curve, while the rest of his arsenal is really more of a junkball-y “hope they get bamboozled” sort of thing. So long as the Braves’ lefties can acknowledge that his changeup is generally in the dirt and avoid looking terrible on it, they may be able to get some good hacks in against his four-seamer and curve.
Because of his profile, Leahy is pretty steady and generally throws up the same type of outing, with variance largely around whether fly balls clear the fence. He had a sky-high HR/FB in April (24 percent), but it then fell to around seven percent in May, three percent in June, and is sitting at zero for July so far. As a result, he’s been on a pretty good run for about seven starts FIP-wise, though it’s included a couple of xFIP-based clunkers. If the Braves can actually noodge his HR/FB up, that’ll bode well. If not, it could be another sad BABIP day for the team, at least until they chase him.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Friday, July 10, 8:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
TV: None
Streaming: Apple TV (le sigh)
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
