The Packers’ playoff seeding paths are becoming very clear

SB Nation

With the Detroit Lions losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, the Green Bay Packers need to lose both games to finish the year, against the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings, while the Lions win

out for Green Bay to miss the postseason. As of now, the New York Times/The Athletic playoff simulator gives the Packers a 94 percent chance to make the postseason. Even if the team loses its next two, finishing the year on a 0-4 stretch, the simulator has Green Bay making the playoffs 76 percent of the time.

Really, it just boils down to this: The only team in the wild card hunt that isn’t currently in the playoffs, if the season ended today, is the Lions. They are 1.5 games behind the Packers with just two weeks to go. Everything has to go right for Detroit moving forward.

Now, since the dramatics have been taken out of the playoff race, it’s time to turn our attention to seeding. Let’s break down what it would take for the Packers to earn different positions in the playoffs. As of now, four spots are potentially up for grabs.

#2 Seed: 5%

Here’s the path: The Packers need to win the NFC North to host a home playoff game in the wild card round. The only way for them to do that is by winning both of their games to end the season while the Chicago Bears lose out. To get the second seed, they’ll need the Philadelphia Eagles to lose at least one more game, too.

#3 seed: 3%

This is a very similar path to the two seed. The Packers need to win the North (Green Bay wins out, Chicago loses out), but if the Eagles don’t drop one of their final two games of the year, the Packers would be the third seed. The NFC South owns the fourth seed in the NFC, as the 8-7 Carolina Panthers and 7-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only teams left in contention for that playoff spot.

#5 Seed: basically 0%

There is the smallest window for the Packers to get the 5th seed and play the NFC South in the first round, but they need this exact series of events to happen:

49ers lose two of their next three games
Packers win out
Rams lose out

Don’t even spend any mental energy on this possibility until Week 17’s action is over. The 49ers’ next two games are on Monday Night Football and Sunday Night Football.

#6 seed: 11%

There are a million different scenarios that get the Packers to the sixth seed, but the important thing to keep an eye on is how the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers finish the year. Green Bay is a game and a half behind the Rams right now and a half-game behind the 49ers. There is the potential for the team to jump one (and only one) of them,

#7 seed: 75%

By far the most likely scenario, which is just the Packers avoiding a collapse, the Lions avoiding going on a run and the Rams/49ers avoiding collapse, is that Green Bay will be playing on the road as the seventh seed in the postseason. Like the sixth seed, there are multiple paths for the Packers to get to this point.

Assuming Green Bay gets into the playoffs, the most important games for ensuring that the Packers will be in the lowest seed (all of these do not need to happen, but they each help) are: