The opponents Michigan will play in 2026 have been known for quite some time, as has the destination for each game. With the tough slate of opponents Michigan has, a 10-2 record should be enough to get
the Wolverines into the 12-team College Football Playoff, while a 9-3 record might also work depending on what goes on elsewhere in the country and how Michigan looks in its games.
Another piece of the equation is the late-season momentum a team can build, especially against tougher opponents. We found out when all of Michigan’s matchups will occur last week when the Big Ten revealed its schedule in full, allowing us to start to piece together some parts of the College Football Playoff race even before a game is played. So today, we’ll look through Michigan’s 2026 schedule to determine the three games should have the biggest impact on the Wolverines’ playoff chances.
Penn State – Oct. 17
Michigan and Penn State haven’t played each other since the 2023 season, when the Wolverines famously won by a 24-15 final score without Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines, kicking off a November surge that capped an undefeated regular season. That game had some big playoff implications for both teams, and it should be no different in 2026.
The teams find themselves in similar territory, both welcoming in new head coaches that had been well-established and successful at their previous stops. At the same time, both rosters will still have plenty of talent and should be primed to compete.
Penn State doesn’t have a tough schedule on paper, with the trip to Ann Arbor appearing to be its toughest test. As such, it would be an excellent chance for the Wolverines to put a dent in the Nittany Lions’ resume, something that could be a key data point with the teams looking very similar on paper from a talent standpoint heading into the year.
@ Oregon – Nov. 14
I contemplated putting the Indiana game in this spot, but settled on Oregon instead. Oregon, much like Penn State doesn’t have a tough schedule on paper compared to the rest of the Big Ten. The Ducks will play against Michigan and Ohio State, but the rest of the slate shouldn’t be too challenging.
It’s possible Michigan enters this matchup behind Oregon in whatever ranking system you subscribe to, while also having an additional loss or two on its resume. Michigan picking up a win, especially on the road, would be a massive resume booster. Furthermore, the fact this game takes place in mid-November would mean the Wolverines could rely on good old fashioned recency bias when being compared to other teams in the CFP race.
Additionally, winning a mid-November game should be a real boost to the Wolverines as they gear up for the final two games on their schedule, one of which should have massive implications for their College Football Playoff chances.
@ Ohio State – Nov. 28
There’s no real surprise The Game would find its way onto this list, as it has played a big role in Michigan’s CFP chances in four of the last five seasons. We saw it work against Michigan for the first time in a while in 2025, as a win would have given Michigan a 10-2 record in the regular season, likely good enough to earn a bid. Instead, a loss dropped the Wolverines to 9-3, effectively ending their season.
In 2026, it’s highly feasible for Michigan to enter the final week of the regular season sitting at 9-2 once again. Getting a win here, if all goes well before this game, should be enough for the CFP committee to put Michigan in the 12-team field. On the other hand, even a loss might not be a dealbreaker if Michigan can make it a close game against what should be a great Ohio State team on the road.
Furthermore, this matchup could once again determine who goes to the Big Ten Championship, potentially giving Michigan another chance to pad its resume before the CFP field is set in stone.
