I started a project with a plan for three articles, one each for the biggest surprise in the category of defense, offense and pitching. I did pitchers and now I’m moving on to hitters.
Who was the most
surprising (in a good way) hitter this year? We have a couple of entries people could advocate for. V. Scott being a MLB hitter at all could be viewed as a pleasant surprise that few expected at the start of the year. Some might advocate for Burleson, who had his best all-around season this year. But I opted for Ivan Herrera. Why?
None of us should have been surprised that Herrera is a good hitter. Here is his Statcast page from 2024.

We see two things. First, a fair amount of red. Second, a lot of shading that is the warning that this sample size is too small to really trust.
Ivan finished 2024 right at an OPS of .800 (not bad!), albeit with a low total of 259 PAs. And with a BABIP of .370. Luck!! Some said. In addition, his minor league OPS numbers tended to fall in the mid-to-upper 700’s. Nice for a catcher, but nothing that really jumped off the page. So a reasonable expectation would have been that this guy is a good hitter…for a catcher. Zips projected his 2025 OPS at .722. Seemed a tad low, but not unreasonably. Good. For a catcher.
His first real action in MLB, in 2023, resulted in a .760 OPS. There is a consistent feel to this story. Mid .700’s is above average…especially for a catcher.
To be sure, there were hints of something more. A 20% K rate and a near 10% walk rate suggested good things for the future. A .900+ OPS in his last AAA season provided an inkling, albeit only 290 PAs. Sometimes, the PAs are small sample sizes because the player is good enough, they don’t hang around at a level long enough to accumulate the 600+ PAs that allow us to believe the numbers we see are sustainable. Funny that.
Then 2025 happened. First, 2025 really became an extension of 2024. He. Just. Kept. Hitting. He advanced to an OPS of .837. And that was with some spots where we felt like he struggled to adjust. I know a lot of hitters who’d like to struggle to an .837 OPS. Add it all up, Ivan Herrera now has 777 MLB PAs, and his career OPS is .806. This man can hit. Let’s look at his 2025 Statcast page.

What we discover is the profile that 2024 hinted at was close but was indeed too pessimistic. A larger sample size reveals that he hits the ball harder than thought (avg exit velo) and he is a bit harder to K than it seemed.
For the Burleson honks in the crowd, understand that Herrera hit 19 HR in 452 PAs (1 every 24 PA), whereas Burleson hit 18 HR in 546 PAs (1 every 30 PA). In practice, most everything Alec Burleson does, Ivan Herrera does better, except the K-rate, which both are quite good at.
As you look left, who saw this hitter at the start of the season? Oh, now might be a good time to point out he just turned 25 years old. He could do this for this rest of his career and it would be a really good career. There is room for growth. His next 5 seasons would be expected to be his peak years (26-30). You mean this wasn’t his peak?
As a side note, I cut off his fielding because Statcast says there isn’t enough data (he only caught 14 games last year). Across all 3 seasons at the MLB level, his framing and blocking grade out average in Statcast terms. In his most full year (2024), his blocking graded out 63rd percentile, so a bit above average, even. His caught stealing rate is very poor. I know, you are wondering what this has to do with the most surprising hitter, right? Think about this. The images above convey a very, very good hitter for any position. What is this guy’s hitting profile as a Catcher now? If he is really an average catcher and can somehow improve his throwing at least a bit. Do we go from saying he is a good hitter … for a catcher to he is a great hitter and does that from a position not noted for great hitters? Or do we go the other way and say this guy’s bat is too good for him to be behind the plate, and all of the demands and rigors that come with that?
Overall, I’d say this player moved into the “future core” conversation this season. One of the more interesting debates in the Cardinal’s front office must be around whether he is someone they build around or someone they trade because they could get a haul for him and jump-start the rebuild process.