Series Preview: Orioles at Red Sox

SOUTH WILLIAMSPORT, PA - AUGUST 21: Mascots Dugout, Wally the Green Monster of the Boston Red Sox , and the Bird of the Baltimore Orioles pose for a photograph before the 2022 Little League Classic on August 21, 2022 at Bowman Field in South Williamsport, Pennsylvania.(Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston R

What is the story about?

After a rough time against the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves, the Red Sox packed up for the road and took two out of three against Cleveland. They’ll enter Fenway Park alone in last place at 25-33, two games behind the visiting Baltimore Orioles. The O’s have been playing better of late, breaking free from the tie for last in the AL East, but are nearly as disappointing as Boston this season. No matter what, if the Sox plan on playing in October, as stated by Craig Breslow this week, they need

to win all three of these games. You can’t usually call for sweeps, but they’re facing a bad team and need to pile up wins in June. After hosting Baltimore, the Sox travel to the Bronx and St. Petersburg. It’s not getting easier. And that’s the first three of seven games against the Yankees this month.

Shane Baz, the former Tampa Bay Ray is pitching for the O’s more or less the same as he did for the Rays last year: not great. A few more walks, a few fewer strikeouts, and ERA around 4.50. He was hit hard by the Yankees and Athletics at the beginning of May before settling down against the Nationals and Rays. His last two times out, despite the pedestrian season numbers, he’s been hot: 13 total innings against his old club with just 2 runs allowed. He struck out 15 and walked 5. His last start broke a streak of five straight games allowing a solo homer. He missed Boston in April and hopefully they aren’t facing him at the peak of his powers before the next, eventual, bad outing. Baz will have to work hard though because he’s facing Connelly Early. Early is coming off a brilliant start against one of the best teams in baseball: the Braves. he shut them down for 7.0 innings in the one win the Sox managed to steal. Against Baltimore on the Sunday after The Firing he went 6.2 innings and allowed two solo shots as all the runs the Orioles would get.

Like Baz, Chris Bassitt has been better of late. His May ERA stood at 4.62 vs 5.46 in March/April. For the 37-year, old that’s all the O’s need to see. He held the Blue Jays to one run last time out but allowed three to the Tigers before that while not pitching out of the fifth inning. In two starts last year he first held the Red Sox to a single run in 5.2 innings in April, but then surrendered 9 in June over just 2.0 innings. Lefties in particular have hit him hard this year: .317/.399/.516 and righties still have an OBP of .340. That’s a lot of base clogging if a team can get some timely hitting. But we’re hoping it’s not all about that Bassitt and instead time to pay the toll. Tolle gutted his way through 4.2 innings against a tough Atlanta team and allowed only two runs. Unfortunately his relief was nothing of the kind and the game would end a blowout. But he’s gone at least 6.0 innings three times in his last five starts. This will be his first career appearance against the Orioles.

Trevor Rogers ends the series for Baltimore. Thankfully he hasn’t been on a hot streak. Since being on the losing end of the 17-1 game he hit the IL with the flu and returned to make four starts where he’s allowed 21 earned runs (22 total) in 18.1 innings. He has 11 strikeouts and 8 walks in that time. He’s allowed 5 home runs. He’s still pretty lost. He’s probably facing Brayan Bello and an opener, though the Sox haven’t said so yet. Respectfully, with the bases empty, Greg Weissert is holding batters to a .227/.277/.341 line. With men on base that balloons to .313/.382/.583. Maybe he could open? Orioles often go Right-Left-Switch (Ward, Henderson, Rutschman). Lefties are a bit better against him with a .727 OPS vs .681 for same-handed bats. But that’s not insurmountable. Maybe he’d have something the other openers haven’t?

Pete Alonso is second on the team in homers with 11 to Gunnar Henderson’s 13.

Jackson Holliday is back from the IL and hamate surgery.

One-year Sox fan favorite Tyler O’Neill is hitting .158/.266/.232.

Adley Rutschman is having a bounceback season posting a .798 OPS which would be his best mark since 2023.