So Monday night is set: UConn and Michigan will meet in the finals. This is a very interesting match for several reasons.
First and foremost, we’ll see two excellent teams. We honestly thought Arizona was playing well enough to beat Michigan, and the Wolverines toyed with them. That was stunning, and more so since Yaxel Lendeborg got hurt early in the game. True, he played after that, but he hurt both his ankle and his knee.
Michigan was incredibly impressive, and Dusty May has emerged as a brilliant
coach. We knew that when he got FAU to the Final Four, and now he’s built a juggernaut in Ann Arbor.
UConn was pretty good, too. Illinois was a much bigger team and has often been an offensive juggernaut. The Illini were held to 34% from the field and 23% from behind the line.
UConn is a tremendously gutty team. What about the Wolverines?
Michigan was clearly great Saturday night, potentially historically great. Look at what they’ve done: they beat Howard, 101-80; Saint Louis, 95-72; Alabama, 90-77; Tennessee, 95-62; and Arizona, 91-73.
. What chance does UConn have? Well, better than you might think.
First, Wake Forest, Iowa, and Ohio State nearly beat Michigan. Wisconsin beat them the first time they played and almost did so the second time as well.
Second, Lendeborg will almost certainly not be 100%. He’s going to get a lot of treatment, but he’ll wake up hurting tomorrow, and possibly Monday, too.
Third, Aday Mara had a tremendous game against Arizona, but it was way beyond his norm. He shot 11-16 for 26 points. On Monday, he’ll have to deal with Tarris Reed, who is shorter at 6-11 to Mara’s 7-3, but immensely powerful. If Reed can muscle him, and Lendeborg is limited, Michigan could have some issues.
Elliot Cadeau played very well against Arizona, but he didn’t shoot very well, hitting just 5-17/3-7. However, he ran his team beautifully, dishing out 10 assists.
It also underscores why UNC felt the need to move on from Hubert Davis. Yes, he had some success, and he recruited well, but look at what happened with the players who left his program, many of them confused and demoralized: they thrived. Caleb Love thrived at Arizona. Cade Tyson thrived at Minnesota. And Cadeau has thrived at Michigan.
Consider this too: if you take Mara out of it, Michigan shot just 22-53. That’s 41.5%, which is adequate, but not startling. Keep in mind, too, that Solo Ball and Silas Demary are both 6-4, and Braylon Mullins is 6-6. They have a lot to throw at Cadeau and, for that matter, Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gayle and Trey McKinney. Michigan has gotten by since a late ACL injury took out LJ Cason, but it could catch up to them Monday.
Finally, there is this: Michigan was incredible against Arizona, but to expect that same level twice is asking a lot. Consider Houston in 1983, the subject of Sunday’s YouTube Gold. After what they did to Louisville, everyone assumed that they would blow NC State out of the water.
Didn’t happen.
Duke probably peaked last year when it utterly destroyed Illinois late in the season. Arizona was brilliant against Purdue last weekend, and Illinois punked Houston last weekend quite convincingly.
In short, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. And UConn, in case anyone needs reminding, understands March as well as anyone. Yes, Danny Hurley at times verges on emotional instability. He’s been very honest about that. But he also learned a hell of a lot from his father about how to coach a team, and how to win. And his players clearly believe in him.
If UConn wins Monday night – and we think they will – he will put himself firmly on a different level from any other coach in college basketball, other than Ben McCollum. And as much as we admire him, and as much as we scolded other schools for not hiring him sooner, his championships were in D-II.
If UConn wins three championships in four years, Hurley will go where only John Wooden has gone before.
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