No fan base is ever content. Being a fan means living in a constant state of itch. You watch the games, you clock the flaws, you start texting your group chats what the solutions are, and you argue about whether the problem is real or something we all talked ourselves into. Some people are wired to be miserable no matter what. They only feel alive when they are annoyed. That is part of the ecosystem, too.
Right now, one of the topics that keeps lighting up conversations is Oso Ighodaro. The second-year
forward center out of Marquette has logged 90 games in his young career, and somehow that has been enough to turn him into a lightning rod.
I get the frustration. There is a lottery pick sitting behind him in Khaman Maluach, waiting for minutes at center. Oso is not flashy. He rim runs. He does not shoot, and there is no real reason to think that suddenly changes. He rebounds at an average level. That makes him an easy place to point when people start looking for where the next upgrade might come from within this roster.
I have had my moments with Ighodaro, too. I have felt the impatience. I have wondered out loud what the timeline is supposed to look like in year two.
Then I had to remind myself of something important. He was the 40th pick. Maybe the issue is not what he is doing. Maybe it is what I decided he should already be.
Resetting expectations feels necessary here. His ceiling, at least to me, looks like a rotation player. And that is exactly what he is right now for the Suns. A rotation piece while they juggle injuries, invest in rookie development, and stay committed to seeing what a second-year player can become. That’s the context.
Being the 40th pick sent me down a rabbit hole this morning. Call it Christmas break behavior. I like digging through numbers when things slow down. So I pulled the last ten players taken at 40 and looked at what they were doing through their first 90 games. That is the question with Oso. Is this a quiet hit relative to draft position? Or is he what that spot usually gives you? A useful body. A rotation guy. A JAG…just a guy.
So let’s start with the list.
- 2014: Glenn Robinson, III (MIN)
- 2015: Josh Richardson (MIA)
- 2016: Diamond Stone (NOP)
- 2017: Dwayne Bacon (NOP)
- 2018: Rodion Kurucs (BKN)
- 2019: Justin James (SAC)
- 2020: Robert Woodard II (MEM)
- 2021: Jared Butler (NOP)
- 2022: Bryce McGowens (MIN)
- 2023: Maxwell Lewis (DEN)
Two quick notes before we go any further.
First, the Pelicans apparently have a strange and unexplained fascination with the 40th pick. They held it three times over the last ten years. Yes, they traded the rights a couple of times, but still. That feels excessive. At some point it stops being coincidence and starts feeling like a bit.
Second, I sure liked Dwayne Bacon. A lot. And it was not only the name, although that helped. I really thought he was going to be more than he ended up being. Every time I go back and look at that stretch, I catch myself thinking it again. I was convinced there was something there.
Okay. Back to the analysis.
When you dig a little deeper, things get interesting fast. Four of the ten players taken 40th overall never even made it to the 90-game mark in their careers. Diamond Stone, great name, slightly cursed energy, played seven games for the Clippers in 2016 and vanished. Justin James logged 72 games over two seasons in Sacramento. Robert Woodard II managed 25 games, also with the Kings. Maxwell Lewis bounced around after being drafted and finished with 62 total games. That is the reality of that slot in the draft.
When you look at the actual standouts, Josh Richardson separates himself from the pack. Through his first 90 games, all with Miami, he averaged 7.8 points in 24.5 minutes and piled up 704 total points, the most of anyone on the list. Oso sits sixth in total scoring at 398. Rodions Kurucs had the longest leash, starting 50 of his first 90 games. For reference, Ighodaro has started 11. Rebounding belongs to Oso, who leads the group with 340 boards. In assists, he ranks third with 122, trailing Jared Butler at 202 and Richardson at 167.
Now zoom out.
When you average the production of players drafted 40th overall from 2014 through 2023 in their first 90 games, and account for the four who barely played at all, the baseline looks like this: 4.8 points in 14.1 minutes, 1.9 rebounds, and 1.0 assist. Oso Ighodaro is averaging 4.4 points in 17.5 minutes, along with 3.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists. In context, it does not scream star. It does say rotation player. And for the 40th pick, that is not nothing.
Now what does all of this actually mean? The answer depends on what you already believe about Oso Ighodaro.
This data tends to reinforce opinions rather than flip them. If you want to focus on scoring, he sits below the curve. That is true. He was also never drafted to score. If you want to focus on rebounding, he sits at the top of the group. That matters too, even if most of the players at 40 were not brought in to clean the glass the way he has been asked to.
My takeaway is simpler. The Suns are getting modest value above the mean for a player taken 40th overall. These picks are not designed to alter franchises. Their job is to survive, contribute, and maybe earn a spot in a rotation. That is the ceiling. Spot starts can happen. Anything more is gravy.
By that standard, Oso is delivering quality value for the price paid. Should he be playing the minutes he is playing right now? I would say yes. This was always part of the plan for the Phoenix Suns. You give second-year players real run. You find out what they can do. You find out what they cannot do. From there, you make informed decisions about how to shape the roster moving forward.
And here is the part that gets overlooked. Oso is a net positive. Among all players taken 40th over the last ten years, he sits at +30. That number likely says more about lineups than individual dominance, but it still matters. It tells you that when he is on the floor, the team is not bleeding. He can impact the game without dragging it down. At this stage of his career, that is meaningful.
Zoom out and this starts to look like a best-case scenario. The Suns are getting an extended evaluation window. He is not consistently hurting them. They are winning games. That combination is rare.
People are still going to clench fists at missed rotations and frustrating possessions. That comes with the territory. There also needs to be an honest understanding of expectations. Not what we wish he was. What a 40th pick usually is. In that context, Oso is playing slightly above the line.
And for Phoenix right now, that is enough.
