UFC Vegas 121 happens this weekend (Sat., Sept. 26, 2026) inside META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is our first trip to the warehouse since last month (Aug. 8, 2026) … and this might be the promotion’s worst card of all time.
Or, maybe it’s this.
Regardless, outside of UFC Vegas 121’s main event, the card is filled with guys and gals on long losing streaks, extended time on the sidelines — or both! There are very few fighters here who have any name value outside of a very small group of people who watch
every single fight.
The co-main event, for example, is Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek. The rest of the main card includes two The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) Finale bouts and also Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura. The best the ’Prelims’ have to offer is Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simon and Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez. It’s rough, folks.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC Vegas 121 Main Card Money Line Odds
Raul Rosas Jr. (-185) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+154)
Rosas Jr. is coming off a decision win over Rob Font in March (and some grappling side quests). That’s his fifth UFC win in a row, following his surprise loss to Christian Rodriguez in 2023. His win streak includes a decision over Vince Morales and submission over Ricky Turcios (see that here).
On the flip side, Barcelos, 39, is on a heck of a run. He’s won five in a row, including three fights as the underdog. His biggest upset was over Payton Talbott, when he was +710 (more on that “Fraud Check” here). That doesn’t seem that shocking given the year we’ve had. His other underdog wins were over Montel Jackson and Ricky Simon (who fight each other on the undercard).
Indeed, 2026 really likes guys like Barcelos, huh? We’ve seen so many underdogs win this year and also lots of older fighters turn back younger opponents. Maybe that’s why the odds are so close, despite Rosas Jr. being one of the more liked big prospects in the sport.
Barcelos has definitely made himself hard to count out of a fight. But, I’m wondering if this is a bridge too far for the Brazilian. His amazing late career resurgence can only go so far and it’s likely going to fall off a cliff very soon.
Rosas Jr. has youth and size on his side. And Barcelos no longer has surprise as a weapon. I think he really benefitted from Talbott not taking him seriously. That may have factored in some of the fights since, then, but I’m really not trying to take away from how well he did in those. The man is a tireless bulldog, but I think all his forward pressure will really help Rosas Jr. do what he wants to do: wrap him up, level change, take him down and then grapple.
I think this might look a lot like his fight with Font, where he scored 16 takedowns and spent 10 minutes on top. That was very boring to watch and Rosas Jr. got booed, a lot, throughout.
For this to be a fun fight, I’d love it if Barcelos got off some shots on Rosas and then got on top of him early on. I just don’t see that happening, though.
With this line being so close, despite how much better I think Rosas Jr. is right now, there’s no reason for me to look at anything else other than the moneyline.
Best bet: Raul Rosas Jr. moneyline (-162)
Rodolfo Vieira (-155) vs. Robert Bryczek (+130)
Vieira lost a decision to Eric McConico in his last fight in April. That came six months after his brutal head kick loss to Bo Nickal (see that here). Vieira is now 6-5 in UFC. His last win was a decision over Tresean Gore last year. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace turns 37 on Friday.
Bryczek is also 36. He’s coming off a decision loss to Cam Rowston. His sole UFC win is a technical knockout over the shell of Brad Tavares one year ago. He came to UFC after a three-fight knockout streak in OKTAGON.
Goodness, me. This is a co-main? We’ve got a combined age over 70 and a combined 7-7 UFC record.
I guess I’m picking Bryczek here. Not getting finished by Rowston is the biggest achievement either of these guys have had in the past two years. And Vieira really seems past his best. We never even got to see his best, though, did we? He’s one of many BJJ pros who came over to UFC way too late and just doesn’t have the athleticism and set-ups needed to get mixed martial arts (MMA) natives down to the ground where they can submit them.
Vieira did get McConico down four times, which is the most takedowns he’s ever gotten in a UFC fight. And he did get six and a half minutes of control time. I think it’s a pretty red flag that he, a five-time IBJJ world champion, didn’t manage to turn that into a submission.
Vieira’s takedown percentage is a woeful 22 percent. That’s because his takedowns are extremely telegraphed and they get worse and slower as soon as Vieira gets tired or touched up. I think Bryczek is going to bop Vieira in the nose early and then be able to fend off those takedowns en route to a forgettable decision.
Best bet: Robert Bryczek moneyline (+130)
Mehemmedeli Osmanli (-290) vs. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu (+235)
Osmanli is just 22-years-old and already 10-1. Before TUF, he was fighting in UAE Warriors, which is not a bad organization at all. He made his debut in 2019 at just 15. He submitted 30-year-old former LFA champion Artem Belakh during TUF.
Akylbek Uulu, meanwhile, is 23 and 10-3. He’s also been fighting since he was a teenager. He’s fought in ONE, losing twice — both by stoppage. He beat 30-year-old former CFFC champ Sean Mora during his time on the show.
I don’t watch TUF. I stopped watching during the live season with Michael Chiesa. And I hate these TUF finale fights. Even when TUF was relevant, performance on the show was not a good indicator of how a fighter would perform in UFC (for better or worse). TUF environment is just too weird to use as a reliable tool for guessing how these fighters will do in the real world … or in their finale fights.
For that reason, I always stay away from these bouts. Let me see what these guys are like under real conditions first.
Osmanli is the favorite here and I won’t argue that. His record in UAE Warriors is worth some respect and, as you can see in that pick, he’s got a lot of size over Akylbek Uulu (that’s going to be fun when I’m live-blogging on Saturday).
Best bet: Mehemmedeli Osmanli moneyline (-290)
Melissa Amaya (+180) vs. Tina Black (-218)
Amaya is undefeated as a professional with a career spent entirely in Combate. Her best win there was her first round finish over Japanese veteran, Megumi Sugimoto. She finished Gigi Canuto (who lost her proper debut in August) on TUF to book this final fight.
Black (a.k.a. Valesca Silva) is a veteran of Invicta. She defeated some veterans over there in the form of Yulia Ostroverkhova and Liz Tracy. She lost to Piera Rodriguez on Contender Series back in 2021. She has a win over Jilia Polastri from her early Shooto days. She got to the final with a win over Delphine Benouaich (who won in her proper UFC debut earlier this month).
As I said, I don’t watch TUF. I do have respect for Black’s win over Benouaich, though, given how Benouaich looked in Paris (turning Sofia Montenegro into a bloody mess). I think the quality of her opponents, even before TUF, make her so-so win-loss record more impressive than Amaya’s undefeated record against lesser knowns.
I’ll pick her, but — again — I’m preaching caution when it comes to fights from TUF.
Best bet: Tina Black moneyline (-218)
Brady Hiestand (+285) vs. Rinya Nakamura (-360)
Hiestand hasn’t competed since June 2024. That when he got a “Performance of the Night” bonus for submitting Garrett Armfield. That was his third UFC win in a row, though none of the guys he beat have fought in the Octagon since 2024 either, though.
Nakamura hasn’t fought in a year. His last appearance was a win, though. He stopped Nathan Fletcher with a body kick (see it here). Fletcher has since moved back to Cage Warriors. Before that, he lost, as -600 favorite, to Muin Gafarov.
Nakamura is an elite wrestler and the striking seemed to have turned a corner in his last fight. In his loss to Gafarov, he got hurt early and seemed scared for the rest of the fight. That wasn’t a good look, but I’m not sure if Hiestand can make history repeat itself. Only three of his eight wins are (technical) knockouts.
Hiestand is more of a grappler, but his wrestling is a few notches below Nakamura’s (who is a former junior world champion and multiple time national medallist). Hiestand’s ground game is still good, though. That’s why I’m looking at the over here. I think this fight will see a lot of Nakamura on top, but he won’t be able to seal the deal there.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+145)
UFC Vegas 121 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Rodolfo Bellato (-180) vs. Christian Edwards (+150)
Bellato finished hot prospect, Luke Fernandez, in the first round in March (see that here). He really needed that after being on a very weird run. Before the Fernandez fight, he lost a boring decision to Navajo Stirling. And before that, he had his strange “No Contest” with Paul Craig. That’s when he seemed to fake being hurt from an illegal blow. I think he might have been play acting to get a point deduction and just did too good a job of it. And before that, he fought to a draw with Jimmy Crute. That all gives Bellato one of the strangest records in UFC today at 2-1-1 1 NC.
Edwards came in on ultra short notice to fight Modestas Bukauskas (stepping in for Bellato, in fact). Edwards, whose record is very so-so, fought better than expected and ended up losing just a split decision.
I think the odds are being a little disrespectful to Bellato here. Edwards has never won at UFC’s level and the only reason he looked good last time, in my opinion, is because of Bukauskas having one of his semi-regular off nights.
I think Bellato is too athletic and hard-hitting for Edwards and I think it’s likely he gets a finish here.
Best bet: Rodolfo Bellato moneyline (-180)
Josiah Harrell (-135) vs. Elves Brener (+114)
Harrell was a short-notice opponent for Jack Della Maddalena in 2023. But, he fell out of that fight after medical screening revealed a brain issue that would require surgery. After returning to action, he won four fights, improving his record to 10-0, which included a win over Melvin Guillard! He nearly killed a man at LFA 224 to get re-signed to UFC. In his first fight back, he was brutalized by Jacobe Smith for a first round stoppage loss (see it here).
Brener has had some fun fights in UFC, but not a lot of wins. He’s on a three-fight losing skid, with losses to Esteban Ribovics, Joel Alvarez and Myktybek Orolbai. Those were all wars. He came into UFC with a shock win over Zubaira Tukhugov (he just beat him in a grappling bout, too).
This would be a great fight for LFA to book.
I somewhat like Brener in this fight. He’s got that dawg in him, as the kids like to say. Harrell has been good outside UFC, but he’s still pretty untested at this level. I think this one could be our “Fight of the Night” and, in that kind of situation, I like Brener’s chances of coming out on top. He’s extremely tough and he has four inches of reach on Harrell.
Best bet: Elves Brener moneyline (+114)
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Montel Jackson (-198) vs. Ricky Simon (+164)
Jackson blew his chances of being a Bantamweight contender with split decision losses to Deiveson Figueiredo and Raoni Barcelos. I scored both of those against him. He was on a six-fight win streak, with mostly decisions, before that.
Simon fought to a draw with Adrian Yanez in March. He was lucky to not get a decision loss there. He was also close to being finished at the final bell. He was still wobbly when they read the official decision. Before that, he took a loss to Barcelos. Those results ruined the momentum he had from beating Cameron Smotherman and knocking out Javid Basharat (see it here).
Simon is really going to need to get some takedowns to stand a chance to be successful here. He’s giving up six inches of range and he’s taller, too. With Jackson’s style that’s really going to help him snipe away at Simon from range. If Simon can’t get inside and get this fight to the ground then he risks getting that chin touched up again, like he did against Yanez.
Jackson is as good a technical striker as Yanez, but his problem has been his lack of meanness and killer instinct. If he can up the intensity in his striking, then he might be able to claw his way back up to relevancy. I think he probably gets the win over Simon here, but stuffing takedowns and landing plenty of strikes at range.
I don’t think he’s ready to turn up the heat, though, and push for a big finish.
Best bet: Montel Jackson moneyline (-198)
Norma Dumont (+114) vs. Ailin Perez (-135)
Dumont dropped a decision to Joselyne Edwards in her last fight. She’d won six in a row before that. Her last three wins are all against released/retired fighters, though: Ketlen Vieira, Irene Aldana and Germaine de Randamie.
Perez is one of those few fighters on the card on a win streak. She’s won her last six. Her most recent was over Macy Chiasson. She’s also got a win over Edwards (who went on a five fight winning streak after that).
This is striker versus wrestler and our striker is a lot bigger than the wrestler. I don’t hate that for the wrestler (Perez), in this situation, though. I think she’ll have a lot of leg to attack with her takedowns and I think, despite being shorter, she’s about as strong as Dumont.
Perez is one of the best takedown artists in the women’s division, landing a very high 4.9 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dumont has good takedown defense, on paper, at 71 percent, but she’s fought mostly strikers.
I’ll take Perez, thinking she can drag down and frustrate Dumont. Her striking defense (only 1.58 significant strikes absorbed per-minute) should keep her out of trouble on the feet, too.
Best bet: Ailin Perez moneyline (-135)
John Castaneda (-325) vs. Alatengheili (+260)
Castaneda fought to a draw with Mark Vologdin. Before that, he lost decisions to Chris Gutierrez and Daniel Marcos. He’s now 4-4-1 in UFC.
Alatengheili is coming off a loss to Da’Mon Blackshear. He’s 5-3-1 in UFC.
Castaneda has a lot of size on Alatengheili. He’s only one inch taller, but he has a sizeable reach advantage and he’s just a lot more thickly muscled. I think this is going to be a low intensity fight in both the striking and grappling department. I think Castaneda will prove he’s a deserved favorite in those wrestling exchanges, where his strength advantage will help out a lot.
I’ll take the over for marginally better odds.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-315)
Mickey Gall (-166) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+140)
Gall is on a four fight losing streak and is now 7-7 as a pro. His last fight was in November, 2024, when he was KO’d by Ramiz Brahimaj (see that here). A TKO loss to Mike Mallott is also part of that run. Gall’s last win was back in 2021. He doesn’t have any wins against anyone currently on the UFC roster.
Dumas lost his last two fights by submission, one to Jackson McVey and one to Donte Johnson. Before that he fought to a no contest with Zach Reese, after a groin shot rendered him unable to continue. And before that he was TKO’d by Michal Oleksijczuk (see that here). That run got him released from UFC, but he was re-signed for this fight … for some reason.
Did we really need this fight?
Gall’s chin is suspect, but so is Dumas’ submission defense. The line is 1.5 and I think that’s too risky for an under play. I’ll take Gall, but only because I have zero faith in Dumas’ striking.
Best bet: Mickey Gall moneyline (-166)
Vanessa Demopoulos (+675) vs. Yazmin Jauregui (-1050)
Demopoulos is on a three-fight losing streak. Those losses are to Jamey-Lyn Horth, Talita Alencar and Jaqueline Amorim. She’s now 5-5 in UFC.
We haven’t seen Jauregui since she was clubbed and subbed by Ketlen Souza in Sphere back in Sept. 2024 (see it here). She’s 3-2 in UFC now with her other loss being a technical knockout to Denise Gomes (see that here).
Man, we’ve got to stop giving fighters -1000 odds. I’m struggling to see the point of doing that with a fighter coming off a two-year layoff and a brutal, aura-sapping, loss. This is also a weird match-up. Demopolous struggles against fellow grapplers and Jauregui struggles against fellow strikers.
I’m just going to fade the massive favorite (like I did last week!).
Best bet: Vanessa Demopoulos moneyline (+675)
UFC Vegas 121 Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Raul Rosas Jr. by Submission (+300)
With Vegas cooling on Rosas Jr., there’s pretty high odds on this prop bet. Admittedly, Rosas Jr. has looked more blanket than killer in UFC. But, maybe he really shows up in his first main event.
Robert Bryczek to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+400)
I really think Vieira is on a steep decline at the moment. Bryczek packed a wallop in OKTAGON, maybe he can do it here in the Octagon.
Two-bet parlay: Melissa Amaya and Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu (+854)
I’m struggling to find anything interesting on this card. TUF is weird, though. Maybe both underdogs win that piece of glass (do they still give that out?). If they do, that’s a pretty big return.
