NFL predictions: Rain could throw a wrench in Browns-Jets expected matchup advantages

This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns (3-1) take on the New York Jets (1-3). Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.

Can’t Ignore the Weather

The Browns have already had one game make a weather impact this year, that being the closing moments of their first win of the season in Week 2 over the Buccaneers. It’s about to happen again, although this one is more anticipated. Current weather forecasts are calling for rain before, during,

and after the game, so it looks like it’s going to be difficult to avoid.

Obviously, that leads to a lot of wildcard factors. Instincts would tell me that an already-solid Browns defense have an even bigger edge over the Jets’ offense now. However, the Browns are also missing two of their defensive tackles in Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr. Even though the Jets’ rush offense has not done much this year, what if the weather conditions allow them to churn those tough yards out?

And then for the Browns’ offense, will Deshaun Watson be able to maintain his rhythm in the rain, or will he be turnover prone?

Now Let’s Try Ignoring the Weather

The Browns come into this game as 1.5 point underdogs, but based on the way each team has played, Cleveland has the edge in my book. That doesn’t mean it’s a definitive edge by any means, but I think it’s Cleveland’s game to lose.

Want to know how good Denzel Ward is? A week after Ward held the Panthers’ Tetairoa McMillan to 2 catches for 17 yards, McMillan had 14 catches for 192 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Lions. Last week, he had a key interception in the first half that swung the momentum to Cleveland. Ward’s mission this week? Shutting down Garrett Wilson. Wilson leads the team with 24 catches for 270 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Besides a game against the Lions — who give up passing yards to everybody — the Jets’ receivers haven’t blown anyone away. It is worth noting that Geno Smith has been playing responsibly at quarterback. He’s completed 72.6% of his passes, with 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. It’s still only led to one victory, though. The Browns’ defense sacked him 10 times when he was with the Raiders last year, so hopefully those guys feel like they have a sense of what Smith’s cadence is.

Let’s see if Deshaun Watson can keep things up for the Browns. You get the feeling that KC Concepcion, Harold Fannin, and Denzel Boston are threats that teams can’t stop, and I loved seeing Jerry Jeudy get involved late last week. Despite the hate that Jeudy got last year, we know that when he’s at the top of his game, he can make defenses pay. If he is clicking and going against lower-tier cornerbacks, what a weapon that can be.

The Browns are calling up DT Sam Kamara and DT Chris Williams from the practice squad this week for some depth at defensive tackle.

The Browns’ offensive line has been very impressive overall this year. That doesn’t mean they have Pro Bowlers, as each player seems to do better in one area over the other (either run or pass blocking). Cumulatively, it’s at least an average unit — and for the run blocking, I get the feeling that it’s more of a chemistry-building issue than a talent issue. Even if the running backs aren’t having lots of room on the ground, they are catching the ball well and doing damage there.

According to FanDuel, the Browns are 1.5 point underdogs against the Jets. The over/under is 39.5.

Quick Hitters

Offensive coordinator Travis Switzer was asked about how the running game can keep improving:

“Yeah, I think that we’ve improved every week in that area and in all areas of the run game. It’s very rarely one thing. Right? I think that our guys have really taken to heart the strain and finish piece of it. I think we’re starting to displace the line of scrimmage, right, more and more every week. That’s shown up. I think our ‘backs are getting a little bit more comfortable with the things that we’re doing, and then us as a staff too, especially in year one, there’s going to be a learning curve through the first few weeks, and just continuing to learn about our guys and what they do well and how do we expand in those areas. Right? So, I think it’s all parts of it, but it’s improved every week and we’re going to continue to do that.”

Defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg talked about the heavier shift to man coverage:

“Well, not going to go too deep into what went into it, but as we’re all learning and progressing through the season, it is week to week to week to week in the NFL, and you guys know that. You guys have been covering the NFL. I’ll steal Monk’s (Todd Monken’s) line that it’s constantly under construction. And the truth is each little week is a season, right? Because this thing is a marathon, it’s a grind. And every week you’re trying to find that winning edge. You’re trying to find that winning margin. You’re trying to eliminate the things that can hurt you, build on the things that can help you, and week to week finding your players’ superpowers, finding what can make your players go, what can make your coaches go, and then building on that week to week and then having the humility to say, ‘oh, that didn’t go as we thought, let’s work it back to this way.’ And it’s a credit to our players for constantly trying to find those inches in their game.”

Special teams coordinator Bryon Storer talked about not kicking the kickoff in play after the 56-yard field goal last week:

“Okay, yes, we would prefer not to kick a touchback in that situation, but the deal is this, it’s a learning experience for me and Andre as well. You have to put yourself in Andre’s shoes and understand he just made a 56-yard field goal, presumably to win the game with 10 seconds left to go in the game. So, his adrenaline, all of his teammates were around him, too. I mean, we’re saying, ‘hey, get to the kickoff huddle, get to the kickoff huddle.’ And he knew what he had to do. And I’ll back up for one second. The great thing that happened was, in the beginning of the game, they won the toss. They deferred and we got a chance to choose the direction in the fourth quarter. We wanted to go that direction. That was the preferred direction to go at the end of the game in the fourth quarter. And so, in that same breath, you have the wind with you in that situation, and going that whole game going that direction, if Andre kicked it pure, it went long, he had a touchback. Yeah, I think he had one touchback before that. And then he said if he hit it, he tried to just baby it and get it down there. That’s when he felt like… so, long story short, that 20-yard window for the landing zone, it shortens when you have a ton of adrenaline, you’ve got the wind at your back, and you’re also thinking to yourself, I don’t want to hit it too short because my guy’s got to cover this kick as well. You know what I’m saying? We don’t want to give up a return in that situation. So, it’s just me and Andre talked about it, and I said, ‘how can we better handle this situation in the future?’ And really, I think it’s taking a couple deep breaths, as simple as that sounds, to take a couple deep breaths, get yourself centered for this next play, and then go on and execute that one. So, me and Andre both, I’ve got to be a better communicator with him and try to calm him down in that moment so that he can perform at a higher level. And he learned from that.”

Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:

Predictions

Chris Pokorny: “Even though it’s a different defensive coordinator, I’ve seen much of this Browns’ defense completely lock down offenses in rain storms, so I’m not so concerned about that. However, I also don’t know if I have confidence that Cleveland’s offense can continue their momentum with the weather conditions. On paper, that makes for a low-scoring game, with turnovers possibly swaying the game to whoever gets them. I’ll take the Browns to win still.” Browns 17, Jets 10

Jared Mueller: “There is a real chance this could be a bit of a letdown game for the Browns, with the Jets sandwiched between two big AFC North rivals. HC Todd Monken doesn’t seem the type to let that happen, but he also doesn’t seem the type to allow penalties to happen, and here we are.

A low-scoring affair, Cleveland’s offensive line finds some stability in the rushing attack, RB Quinshon Judkins gets over 100 yards rushing, and WRs KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston each get a score. On the other side, New York tries to use interior runs and passes to whoever CBs Denzel Ward and Tyson Campbell are not covering to keep the game close.” Browns 20, Jets 16

Curtiss Brown: “I don’t know if the Browns are a good team. I don’t. The fact that this team is 3-1 is surprising in and of itself but anyone would rather be 3-1 than 0-4. All 3 of their wins were against teams that they weren’t favored against. Looking at those teams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look like a mess, The Carolina Panthers might be good and the Pittsburgh Steelers are not good in any capacity. Yet, the Browns beat them. Losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars isn’t a surprise anymore, they might be the best team in the AFC South and 2nd best in the AFC.

Looking at the New York Jets, I don’t believe this team is a bottom of the barrel squad but they have some talent. They gave the Detroit Lions a run for their money and they would be 2-2 if they didn’t collapse against the Green Bay Packers. Offensively, the unit could be without running back Breece Hall but wide receiver Garrett Wilson is an issue. Rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq is also someone to monitor. Their offensive line has struggled but their quarterback situation is better than last year with veteran Geno Smith under the helm. Defensively, the unit looks improved on paper but the results haven’t translated.

As far as this game goes, the Browns could lose and I wouldn’t be annoyed. Losing to the Jets wouldn’t tell me anything and if they were to beat them it still wouldn’t tell me anything. If there is a game in which the Browns running game can materialize, this week would be nice. For the rest of the offense, just finding consistency. Defensively, try to slow down Garrett Wilson. The last time these two teams played in the Meadowlands, Cleveland lost due to the special teams costing them. Picked against the Browns for the past 3 weeks (0-3) and im picking against them this week. Why? No idea.” Browns 23, Jets 20

Barry Shuck: “On paper, this should be an easy slam-dunk win for Cleveland. The 3-1-0 Browns vs. the 1-3-0 Jets. But look at who Cleveland has beaten: 0-4-0 Bucs, 2-2-0 Panthers, and 2-2-0 Steelers. Crappy and mediocre squads. The only good team they faced, Jacksonville, took the Browns to the woodshed. New York’s only win is against the worst team in the league: the Titans. The Jets are #25 against the run, so the Browns should exploit that. Maybe place FB Michael Burton in the backfield with Q and run like we are the Dallas Cowboys of the 1990s. Unfortunately, Cleveland is ranked #23 in total yards rushing, so something will need to break. Deshaun has a 69.6% pass completion ratio, which is very good. The Browns’ “D” is playing well, and if they can eliminate WR Garrett Wilson from the Jets’ game plan, they have a good chance for a key victory. Cleveland comes into this game with the 24th-most passing yards allowed, so come up with a plan, Rut. Up next is Baltimore, so rack up as many as possible before “the big game.”” Browns 33, Jets 17

Ezweav: “Browns are having a good year so far. Literally nobody thought we’d be saying that at any point, but here we are. Many seem to be holding their breath waiting for the inevitable shoe (filled with poison and dynamite) to drop. That’s very understandable.

But, they’ll have to keep holding at least another week. Despite losing Myles in the offseason and Mason to dirty Steelery, we were still steady pressuring A-Roj the entire night in week 4. In fact the pressure all year (sans Jacksonville) has been pretty good, and that speaks to scheme success, thus a huge ‘atta boy’ to our new DC.

The schemes offensively have been as or more impressive, at least in the passing game – and even the rushing attack started to come alive a little bit last week. That we have seemingly effective scheming going on both sides of the ball (not to mention, probably, the best special teams’ play we’ve had in decades) really changes the view of this team, because the wise ones know that it’s WAY more about the X’s & O’s than it is the Jimmy’s & Joe’s

However I think we’ve got the better of both, so while nothing’s easy, I do expect us to pretty well shut down Geno (who has to be the weakest of the QB’s we’ve seen so far) and continue looking competent-to-almost-professional offensively. That may not be good enough to eventually grant us a Lombardi in 2026, but it should be plenty good enough for Sunday.” Browns 26, Jets 9

Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.