I think its important when evaluating front office performance to also evaluate the moves the team could’ve made but chose not to just as much as you evaluate the deals they made. Last December, one of the major storylines of the entire MLB offseason was whether or not the Arizona Diamondbacks were going to trade Ketel Marte. Marte was just wrapping up another typical season for himself in which he created a lot of value, but was also a major source of off the field distraction. The narrative at the time
was that they were ‘listening’ on Ketel Marte but not actively trying to move him. Even with his pending 10 and 5 rights that were set to vest at the beginning of the 2026 season in April. This led to plenty of speculation by the industry as to whether he might be moved and where he might end up.
The Boston Red Sox seemed to ultimately get the closest and according to Alex Speier at the Boston Globein February of 2026, the Red Sox were heavily interested and had offered a package of Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias for Marte. According to Speier, the Dbacks insisted that Marcelo Mayer be included in the deal and the Red Sox refused. That would effectively seal Marte’s fate with the Dbacks for 2026 and potentially beyond. But what would this team have looked like if Hazen and co hadn’t been so insistent on Marcelo Mayer and just said yes to Tolle and Arias for Marte? This article will rewind the clock and examine just that.
In fairness, I need to put the disclaimer here that none of the results are guaranteed on the new teams because there are a ton of factors that dictate player performance. I also don’t have a crystal ball, so for the purposes of this exercise lets just assume the players had the same 2026 regardless of what team they were on. Also in fairness to Mike Hazen, it is easy to play captain hindsight. It is much harder to make the moves in the moment. However for entertainment purposes only, lets revisit the trade that almost was and analyze the ripple effects.
Trade: Bos Recieves: Ketel Marte Ari Recieves: Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias.
The Dbacks acquire the fastball heavy prospect Payton Tolle and they finally get the bat missing controllable arm they have coveted. They also would acquire a top middle infield prospect that would’ve likely started the season in Amarillo and got promoted to Reno and honestly could’ve pushed for some big league time, however for the purposes of this exercise lets assume Arias would’ve spent the season in the minors and not contributed any major league value.
In a corresponding move, Ari signs 3B Alex Bregman 5yr $175 million
If the Dbacks traded Marte, it is widely speculated that they would’ve signed Alex Bregman. There was a lot of reporting that Bregman wanted to play for the Dbacks and live where he played year round similar to the Corbin Burnes situation. Especially if the Dbacks had traded Ketel Marte as reported by Ken Rosenthal in The AthleticFor the purposes of this exercise lets assume the exact same contract only its entirely likely he wouldve came at a slightly cheaper rate. I also think its not just a coincidence that the day after Arizona acquired Nolan Arenado on 1/12, Bregman signed with the Cubs. In my opinion, he was clearly holding out for a deal with Arizona. So in this world, Dbacks trade Marte and to fill the gap in the middle of their lineup, they sign Alex Bregman.
Moves that then Would’ve Never Happened: Sign Zac Gallen and trade for Nolan Arenado
By signing Bregman and acquiring Tolle, I think its all but certain the Dbacks dont sign Zac Gallen and it likely they dont trade for Arenado although I suppose there is another world out there where Arenado reportedly was willing to play first base. We wont go there though for the purposes of this. So no Nado and no Gallen.
What Would’ve Been the Net Effect?
In fairness to Hazen and Co, this is a little hand wavey assuming that the Dbacks are able to get the same breakout out of Tolle that the Red Sox were. However it is also kind of offset by the breakout the Dbacks were able to get out of Arenado. But for the purposes of this exercise, lets assume the same production in 2026. The result? An additional 4.4 wins almost completely from acquiring Tolle and not signing Gallen. This is where it really hurts:
The Money
To add insult to injury, this version of the 2026 Dbacks roster would’ve likely been about 10-11 million cheaper than they were:
Here is what this would’ve looked like long term financially:
So essentially, the trade would’ve saved 10-11 million in 2026 and cost almost that same amount back for 2027.
Franklin Arias
In addition, this organization would also have a clear consensus top 100 prospect in Franklin Arias who is currently MLB Pipeline’s #2 prospect in all of baseball after the 20 year old SS had a steller 2026 batting .323 with 25 HR in 117 games. Arias has posted elite contact rates at all levels of the minor league’s to go along with some pop at a premium position. This would’ve also solved much of the ‘lack of impact talent’ label this farm system as a whole currently holds and given this team a SS or 2B option of the future with Ketel Marte gone.
Conclusion
I think its fair to assume this is likely a move Mike Hazen and co would want back. Especially considering you add 4 wins to this 2026 club and you likely have a 90 win playoff contender. In addition you also add long term stability to your starting rotation and middle infield at league minimum cost. Had this trade been made, you likely were playing baseball the past couple of weeks, and head into the 2027 season with the rotation anchored by a solid pairing of youth and experience in Burnes and Tolle. You also have Alex Bregman and his leadership coming off of a near 6 WAR season anchoring the middle of the order for years to come and the #2 prospect in all of baseball per MLB Pipeline heading into the offseason.
As I mentioned, there are a ton of variables that could’ve impacted performance one way or the other. Especially when you consider guys playing on different teams and the team dynamics changing. Its not as simple as adding and subtracting WAR in my opinion. We are also basing all of this on reporting from reputable outlets like the Boston Globe and The purposes of this analysis is purely an exercise to further evaluate the decision making of this organization and a fun little ‘what could’ve been’ experiment.
