While the membership of the top 16 in today’s NCAA Men’s Tournament bracket remains the same as what the Selection Committee revealed last Saturday, there has been some shuffling outside of a top line that remains stable—with Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and UConn your four No. 1 seeds in that order.
This week’s results have led to some real shuffling on lines 2 through 4. Iowa State, the Selection Committee’s final No. 1 seed, is ranked fifth in this projection today, followed by Illinois (who can make
their case by beating Michigan in Ann Arbor tonight), SEC-leading Florida (who rates out as the final No. 1 seed when looking at metrics alone), and Purdue. The Boilermakers lost a thriller to Michigan State, 76-74, last night and are now in real danger of slipping down to the 3 line.
The Spartans joined that quartet after their win, though they’re behind Houston (who dropped from line 2 due to a relative lack of high-quality wins and three straight defeats), Nebraska, and WCC-leading Gonzaga. Virginia, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Vanderbilt are today’s 4 seeds, with three of the Commodores’ SEC rivals (Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee) and North Carolina all looking to make a jump over the final two and a half weeks.
For about half of Division I this weekend marks the end of the regular season, with conference tournament action starting on Monday. But for those conferences whose tournaments wrap up over Selection Weekend, this is only the penultimate Saturday and Sunday of play. Your full TV preview follows today’s bracket and rundown.
NOTE: Changes since Tuesday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
—/★(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)/Morgan State (MEAC)
▲(8) Iowa
(9) Georgia
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Arkansas
(12) Belmont (MVC)
(4) Kansas
(13) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(6) Villanova
★(11) San Diego State (MW)
(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
(14) UC Irvine (Big Sky)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) UCF
▲(10) California
(2) Illinois
(15) Wright State (Horizon)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) UConn (Big East)
—/★(16) UMBC (AE)/Morehead State (OVC)
▼(8) Wisconsin
▼(9) Miami (Fla.)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(5) North Carolina
(12) Yale (Ivy)
(4) Vanderbilt
★(13) Utah Valley (WAC)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Louisville
▼/▼(11) Indiana/Auburn
▼(3) Houston
▼(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(7) Saint Louis (A 10)
▲(10) Missouri
(2) Purdue
(15) Merrimack (MAAC)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
(16) LIU (NEC)
(8) Kentucky
(9) Clemson
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Alabama
(12) South Florida (AC)
(4) Virginia
(13) Liberty (CUSA)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
▼(6) St. John’s
(11) Texas/TCU
▲(3) Michigan State
(14) Navy (Patriot)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Utah State
(10) Texas A&M
(2) Iowa State
(15) Portland State (Big Sky)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
★(16) Marshall (Sun Belt)
(8) Saint Mary’s
▼(9) SMU
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Tennessee
(12) High Point (Big South)
(4) Texas Tech
▼(13) UNCW (CAA)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(3) Nebraska
(14) Austin Peay (ASUN)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(7) NC State
(10) UCLA
▲(2) Florida (SEC)
▼(15) ETSU (SoCon)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: UCLA, Missouri, Texas A&M, California
Last Four IN: Texas, TCU, Indiana, Auburn
First Four OUT: Santa Clara USC, Virginia Tech, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, New Mexico, VCU, Seton Hall
On Deck: Nevada, Boise State, Tulsa, Akron
ARRIVALS (5): Marshall (Sun Belt), Morgan State (MEAC), San Diego State (MW), Morehead State (OVC), Utah Valley (WAC)
DEPARTURES: App State (Sun Belt), Howard (MEAC), Southeast Missouri (OVC), Santa Clara, Utah Tech (WAC)
Utah Valley got an injunction against the WAC barring them from the postseason, so the Wolverines are back in the field for now.
Conference Breakdown
SEC (11): Florida (auto bid), Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas (First Four), Auburn (First Four)
ACC (9): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, NC State, Miami (Fla.), Clemson, SMU, California
Big Ten (9): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, UCLA, Indiana (First Four)
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, UCF, TCU (First Four)
Big East (3): UConn (auto bid), St. John’s, Villanova
MW (2): Utah State, San Diego State (auto bid)
WCC (2): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s
25 one-bid conferences
With San Diego State’s win over Utah State, the Mountain West is again a two-bid league—for now. Santa Clara, blown out at Saint Mary’s on Wednesday night, drops out in response.
Games to Watch
- All times are p.m. Eastern, unless noted.
- Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance with standout games in bold.
- Teams in the field are preceded by their seed number (1) to (16).
- Teams out of the bracket but still alive for an at-large are marked with an (OUT).
Friday
(1) Michigan at (2) Illinois, 8 (Fox)
(11) Miami (Ohio) at Western Michigan, 6 (CBSSN)
(OUT) Akron at Kent State, 8 (ESPNU)
(12) Yale at Cornell, 6 (ESPNU)
ULM at Troy, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
App State at Texas State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Georgia Southern at (16) Marshall, 9 (ESPN2)
Southern Miss. at South Alabama, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Louisiana at Arkansas State, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
(15) Merrimack at Canisius, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
If the Fighting Illini want to be a No. 1 seed in the final bracket, they must defeat the visiting Wolverines tonight.
It’s the final night of Sun Belt play, and as noted in Tuesday’s bracket post, the standings are a mess:
- Four teams are tied for first at 11-6. Remember that the top two seeds earn a bye to Sunday’s semifinals and only need to win two games to claim the auto bid. The third- and fourth-place finishers will start in the quarters and need to play three games in as many days to claim the crown.
- But that quartet aren’t alone in their quest to make the top four. Three teams are a game back at 10-7. That’s half of the conference within a game of the No. 1 seed.
- James Madison (9-8) and Southern Miss. (8-9) find themselves on either side of the .500 mark.
- A trio of teams are three games below .500 at 7-10.
- Old Dominion is a a game behind them at 6-11.
- The only thing that is set heading to Pensacola is last place—1-15 ULM is five games behind the Monarchs.
Yale is in pole position for the No. 1 seed in Ivy Madness, which will be held in Ithaca. However, there are still three league games left. This weekend sees the last traditional back-to-back contests of 2026, with each team playing a single game next Saturday. Remember only the top four teams qualify and no one is eliminated yet.
Saturday
(4) Virginia at (1) Duke, 12 (ESPN)
Colorado at (3) Houston, 12 (ESPN2)
(7) NC State at Notre Dame, 12 (CW)
(7) Iowa at Penn State, 12 (BTN)
(10) Missouri at Mississippi State, 1 (SECN)
(OUT) Seton Hall at (1) UConn, 12 (FS1)
Fordham at (OUT) VCU, 12:30 (USA)
Cleveland State at Robert Morris, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
The Cavaliers are still very much alive for a 2 or 3 seed and will remain so even with a loss in Durham—but a win would give them a real case to find themselves within the higher range of that grouping.
The Cougars really need to end their three-game skid, and a home game against the Buffaloes may do the trick. Houston’s closing schedule is far more forgiving than those of their primary Big 12 rivals.
(4) Vanderbilt at (8) Kentucky, 2 (ESPN)
(6) Louisville at (9) Clemson, 2 (ESPN2)
(10) UCLA at Minnesota, 2 (FS1)
Boston College at (8) Miami (Fla.), 2 (ACCN)
(OUT) Oklahoma State at (OUT) Cincinnati, 2 (CBSSN)
(11) San Diego State at (OUT) New Mexico, 2 (CBS)
(14) Austin Peay at Bellarmine, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Detroit Mercy at Oakland, 3 (ESPN+ ($))
Tennessee State at UT Martin, 2 (ESPNU)
(16) UMBC at UMass Lowell, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
If the Commodores lose in Lexington, they are likely to drop to the 5 line with one of the SEC rivals mentioned earlier in this post poised to replace them. In the ACC, the Tigers need to get right after dropping four in a row—and it’s more likely they beat the Cardinals at home than win in Chapel Hill on Tuesday.
The Cowboys and Bearcats meet in yet another quasi-elimination game in the Big 12, while the Aztecs will attempt to not surrender their share of the Mountain West lead by losing at the Pit.
Contenders in the ASUN, Horizon, and OVC wrap up their regular seasons, with the Horizon going to a rather unique “final five” format for its tournament. With the league being a demolition derby traditionally, you’ll want to keep an eye on how those matchups shake out.
(4) Kansas at (1) Arizona, 4 (ESPN)
(4) Texas Tech at (2) Iowa State, 4 (CBS)
(11) Texas at (10) Texas A&M, 4 (ESPN2)
(3) Nebraska at (OUT) USC, 4 (BTN)
South Carolina at (9) Georgia, 3:30 (SECN)
Pitt at (10) Cal, 4 (ACCN)
(8) Wisconsin at Washington, 4 (FS1)
Lipscomb at Eastern Kentucky, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Abilene Christian at (13) Utah Valley, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
(13) Stephen F. Austin at Houston Christian, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
North Dakota at (14) North Dakota State, 5 (Summit League Network ($))
(15) ETSU at Mercer, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Colgate at (14) Navy, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Fairleigh Dickinson at (16) LIU, 4 (NEC Front Row)
Howard at (16) Morgan State, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
NJIT at Bryant, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Eastern Illinois at SIUE, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Tennessee Tech at Southeast Missouri, 4:45 (ESPN+ ($))
Brilliant scheduling by the Big 12 in having two huge matchups going on at the same time. Naturally, the Wildcats and Cyclones are trying to stay in the hunt for a No. 1 seed, while the visiting Jayhawks and Red Raiders are looking for wins to elevate them above the 4 line. For Texas Tech in particular, a strong performance on the road without JT Toppin is necessary for their hopes.
There’s also an SEC bubble tilt featuring a pair of former Big 12 members in this window. The Aggies are 5-5 since beating the Longhorns in Austin, which is why they’re down near the Cut Line. In the Big Ten, the Trojans can get themselves back on track by beating the visiting Cornhuskers, while the Badgers need to avoid a Pacific Northwest sweep.
Among the single-bid league contest on offer, keep an eye on Howard’s trip to Morgan State—the Bears have the auto bid at the moment because of their win at Burr Gym. There are also vital contests for conference tournament seeding in the America East, ASUN, and OVC.
(5) Alabama at (5) Tennessee, 6 (ESPN)
(6) BYU at (OUT) West Virginia, 5:30 (Fox)
(9) SMU at (OUT) Stanford, 6 (ACCN)
(11) TCU at Kansas State, 6:30 (ESPN2)
(OUT) McNeese at New Orleans, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
(12) Yale at Columbia, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
(13) Liberty at Jacksonville State, 6 (ESPNU)
(15) Portland State at Montana, 6 (SWX/ESPN+ ($))
(15) Wright State at Northern Kentucky, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Hawai’i at Cal State Fullerton, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Two of Vandy’s primary rivals for a 4 seed meet in Knoxville, with the Crimson Tide looking to avenge their 79-73 home loss to the Vols back on January 24th. Otherwise, the Big 12 has a pair of bubble teams in action in West Virginia and TCU, while SMU will look to not get swept out of the Bay Area in the ACC.
(5) Arkansas at (2) Florida, 8;30 (ESPN)
(OUT) Virginia Tech at (5) North Carolina, 8:30 (ESPN2)
(7) Villanova at (6) St. John’s, 8 (Fox)
Baylor at (7) UCF, 8 (FS1)
Duquesne at (7) Saint Louis, 8 (FanDuel SN Midwest/ESPN+ ($))
Mississippi at (11) Auburn, 8:30 (SECN)
Oregon State at (OUT) Santa Clara, 8 (CBSSN)
(OUT) Boise State at Fresno State, 7:30 (MWN)
CSUN at UC Riverside, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Utah Tech at Southern Utah, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Tarleton at Cal Baptist, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
The SEC-leading Gators lead one of their main rivals for a first conference title since 2014 to Gainesville, with the Razorbacks aiming to not only damage Florida’s 2 seed hopes but to boost their own chances for a spot in the top 16. UNC is another team trying to crack the 4 line, and the Tar Heels will be challenged by a Hokie squad that’s trying to just sneak into the field. In New York, meanwhile, the Big East’s second- and third-best teams meet with the Red Storm looking to sweep the Wildcats and rebound from Wednesday night’s drubbing at the hands of UConn.
(3) Gonzaga at (8) Saint Mary’s, 10:30 (ESPN)
(OUT) Grand Canyon at (7) Utah State, 10 (FS1)
(OUT) Nevada at UNLV, 10 (CBSSN)
UC Santa Barbara at (14) UC Irvine, 10:30 (ESPN2)
On Wednesday night, the Gaels demolished Santa Clara, and they’ll look to reverse the eight-point loss they took to the Zags in Spokane to close out January. In the Mountain West, the Aggies could find themselves back in first all by themselves or in a tie for second depending on what happens in Logan and Albuquerque.
Sunday
Tulane at (12) South Florida, 12 (ESPN2)
North Texas at UAB, 12 (ESPNU)
With the American only sending 10 of its 13 teams to Birmingham for the conference tournament, the Mean Green need a single win to lock up the final spot.
(2) Purdue at (OUT) Ohio State, 1:30 (CBS)
Murray State at Bradley, 2 (ESPN2)
(15) Merrimack at Niagara, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Rice at Temple, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Charlotte at Florida Atlantic, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
The Boilermakers head to Columbus needing a win to keep their 2 seed hopes alive, while the Buckeyes need to snap their two-game losing streak to stay alive in the at-large hunt.
(3) Michigan State at (11) Indiana, 3:45 (CBS)
(12) Belmont at Illinois State, 5 (CBSSN)
Charleston at (13) UNCW, 7 (CBSSN)
Wichita State at UTSA, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
The Spartans cannot get too high after winning in West Lafayette, as they next visit a Hoosier squad that’s desperately in need of a quality win to get more breathing room above the Cut Line.
There are also possible CAA and Arch Madness title game previews in the evening.
Monday
(2) Iowa State at (1) Arizona, 9 (ESPN)
(1) Duke at (7) NC State, 7 (ESPN)
(13) Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
Weber State at (15) Portland State, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
(OUT) McNeese at Nicholls, 7:30 (CBSSN)
A huge weekend in the Big 12 wraps up with a potential 1 seed on the line in Tucson. In the earlier Big Monday matchup, the Wolfpack can get themselves in better position by stunning Duke in Raleigh.
My next full update will come on Tuesday. Conference Tournament Central will be updated as brackets become available.
