As we enter the final week of the regular season with the Red Sox still fighting for a playoff spot, it’s easy to remember all the games that got away. All the Walker Buehler and Dustin May starts. The
entire month of May, so it seemed. But what they lack in certainty of October baseball these Sox make up for in self-determination. All the teams they’re competing with simply can’t make the playoffs if the Red Sox win games. And Toronto is as good a place to do so as any.
Unfortunately for Boston, they enter this series 3-7 against the Blue Jays. Toronto is one of three teams with at least 90 wins — the others being the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies. And despite a few bumps in the road recently — and losing Bo Bichette — Toronto is secure in their playoff berth.
The Red Sox have faced Kevin Gausman one time this year: 8.0 innings, 10 Ks, 0 BB, 1 run, and just 4 hits allowed. That was all the way back on April 9th. Tanner Houck started the game and tossed 6.2 innings of 1-run baseball. Triston Casas played first base. Kristian Campbell started in center field. In short, it’s been a minute. Gausman has been hot as of late with a complete game shutout of the Houston Astros and an 8 inning, 1 run effort against the Yankees. Hope for just a cameo and if he gets into trouble early Toronto punts to the bullpen? The Sox are countering with Lucas Giolito, who tossed 4.1 innings last time out and has looked somewhat depleted of late.
Mad Max Scherzer takes the ball for Toronto on what is sure to be a lovely day Wednesday. Clayton Kershaw announced his retirement and you have to wonder if Scherzer is far behind. In 80 innings this year, sandwiched around IL time, the future Hall of Famer has posted the highest ERA and highest home run rate of his career and come close to highs for walks and lows for strikeouts. At 41-years-old how much is left? And can Garrett Crochet shut down the birds so Boston can take at least one game as we look at the series?
Not Justin has looked pretty good at times for the Jays and somewhere between recovering and solid at others. He missed a year of baseball though so it’s not surprising. Before he becomes the next project pitcher for Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey, he’ll have to face Boston. He’s still far away from what he was when he won the AL Cy Young award but he’s been getting the job done. With 34 Ks in 35.1 inning and a total of 5 walks through 6 starts, don’t underestimate Bieber fever north of the border. Like Giolito, Bello has fallen back to earth, struggling against the Athletics and the Yankees before that. But a quality start is well within his wheelhouse if the bats can provide some runs.
Just as important as these games though is the Tigers-Guardians series. If the Guardians sweep then Boston will be fighting Detroit for the Wild Card. If the Tigers can win that might limit what Cleveland can do. If Boston wins, neither team gets a say in what happens to the Red Sox. Boston is without Roman Anthony, Toronto without Bo Bichette…that’s a lot of talent watching from afar.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Tuesday, September 23: Lucas Giolito (3.46 ERA / FIP) vs. Kevin Gausman (3.38 ERA / 3.52 FIP)
Wednesday, September 24: Garrett Crochet (2.69 ERA / 2.95 FIP) vs. Max Scherzer (5.06 ERA / 5.08 FIP)
Thursday, September 25: Brayan Bello (3.34 ERA / 4.18 FIP) vs. Shane Bieber (3.57 ERA / 3.94 FIP)
When/Where to Watch
Tuesday September 23: 7:07 PM ET on NESN
Wednesday September 24: 7:07 PM ET on NESN
Thursday September 25: 7:05 PM ET on NESN
