When we isolate a brief period of time, a moment that starts with a goal line stand against Notre Dame, followed by magnificent touchdown drive against one of the best defenses in the country and then a kick off return for a touchdown, we catch a glimpse of what UNC football could be under Bill Belichick. A stout and proud defense holding the line against a great offense filled with future pros, then a methodical and efficient drive the entire length of the field for a touchdown, then a special teams
masterpiece for another touchdown. All three phases making plays and competing toe to toe against an elite opponent.
The offense might have turned a corner against Notre Dame, putting up better numbers against the Irish than anyone else: 285 yards of total offense and 5.6 yards per play. Had the defense in the second half gotten some stops, that game might have turned out differently.
UNC now faces two big conference games, at Pitt and at Duke, that will go a long way towards defining Bill Belichick’s second season at UNC. Both are undefeated. With four games under our belts, we step back from the last game to look at the big picture and some trends to monitor as we approach the season’s halfway point.
What’s going on in the second half of the last two games?
First, the defense:
Tait Reynolds has the lowest passer rating and QBR in the ACC. Tait Reynolds outside of one half of football averages 5.4 yards per completion and 0.7 yards per rush, with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Tait Reynolds against UNC in the second half: 13.9 yards per attempt for 139 yards and a touchdown, 9 yards per carry. We did pick him once on the half’s opening drive.
After UNC returned the second half opening kickoff for a touchdown, Notre Dame went joyless murderball for the next quarter and a half, outgaining UNC 195 yards to 14 and burning more than 19 minutes of clock while stretching the lead to 37-20.
The conventional rationalization has been the defense wears down, and that tracks for the Notre Dame game. However, it doesn’t for Clemson. Clemson’s drives in the second half: 3 plays, 4 plays, 7 plays, 7 plays, three hour lightning delay, 4 plays, 5 plays. Clemson didn’t wear UNC’s defense down, they gashed it both on the ground and through the air.
For the moment, the easy answer is that opponents make better halftime adjustments.
And now, the offense in the second half:
Against P4 competition after halftime, UNC’s offense has scored 12 points in three games: one touchdown (extra point missed) and two field goals. Why?
UNC ranks 88th nationally in third down conversion rate overall, which means it’s not getting to the red zone often.
When UNC does reach the red zone, it’s 86th in the country at punching it in. UNC has only 11 red zone attempts against FBS competition, with six touchdowns in those eleven trips.
And here’s the kicker: five of those red zone trips and five of those touchdowns happened in the first quarter. UNC’s opening game plan works wonders, and then teams adjust. Those adjustments so far turn this year’s offense into last year’s offense.
Could a path to a winning season be emerging?
Pitt lost its starting quarterback, Mason Heintschel, for the season to an ACL tear. Syracuse had to make a quarterback change after Steve Angeli turned into a turnover machine. Louisville has lost two in a row to Wake Forest and NC State, which in turn has the most comical loss in college football. FSU, which presumably entered the season with a lame-duck coach, dominated Virginia. Beating Duke seems to come down to stopping Nate Sheppard, which wouldn’t be easy but certainly not impossible.
In the aftermath of some flashes against Notre Dame, seven of the remaining eight games seem winnable.
Metrics snapshot: the offense passes the defense?
SP+ dropped the defense 18 (!) spots this week to 53rd. In turn, UNC’s overall ranking fell 5 more spots (14 in the last two weeks) to 65th. SP+ ranks the offense 82nd and special teams 53rd.
ESPN’s FPI also dropped the defense 16 spots. However, FPI moved UNC’s offense up 22 spots to 37th! That moves UNC up five spots overall to 45th nationally. Special teams comes in at 80th.
FEI over all moved the team up ten spots 61, based in large part by jumping the offense to 59th (+18). The defense in FEI was already low, and it fell a bit further in this metric to 77th (-5). Special teams moves up nine sports to 41st.
Averages: Team 57.7 (+3.3) / Offense 59.7 (+14) / Defense 61 (-12.7) / ST 61.3 (+0.7)
Quick thoughts on past and future opponents based on what we saw last weekend
TCU (2-3): W
TCU’s offense now has three touchdowns in three P4 games. Jordan Dwyer, held out against UNC with a foot ailment, was back for UCF and BYU. Their offense stinks. The Horned Frogs remain winless against FBS competition.
ETSU (4-2): W
The Bucs beat the Mocs 14-3; prior to that, the least points surrendered by the Bucs’ defense were 31 to WCU and 35 to UNC.
Clemson (3-2): L
The ’Canes dominated the Tigers at Clemson. Dabo looked at the remaining ACC schedule for the Tigers and said, “Hey, we can still win this thing.” He has a point, at least as far as reaching the ACC title game.
Notre Dame (5-0): L
Does Notre Dame have pass defense issues, after Billy Edwards connected with Jordan Shipp, Shamar Easter and Jelani Thurman for 183 yards and three touchdowns? We won’t know until they play Miami.
Pittsburgh: (5-0): Pitt lost its starting QB, Mason Heintschel, for the season, with half of UNC’s fan base immediately chalking this one up as a W for the Tar Heels. However, those Tar Heel fans have forgotten what Dean Smith said about how dangerous opponents can be in that first game after losing a key player. Still a Toss Up.
Duke (4-0): After fielding one of P4’s worst defenses in 2025, Manny Diaz has Duke’s defense rated as a top 20 unit in FPI. Paired with Nate Sheppard, that’s enough to make Duke a fringe top 25 team at the moment, although their strength of schedule so far doesn’t tell us much. UNC will be the Blue Devils’ toughest opponent, per FPI, week after next. On paper, still an L.
Syracuse (2-2): Who is Amari Odom? He’s the Orange QB who replaced Steve Angeli, So far, he’s completing 77% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and two touchdowns. Most of that, however, came against UConn and a defense the metrics agree is one of the worst in FBS. Let’s see how Odom performs against Virginia and Louisville, but still a W.
Miami (5-0): L
Connecticut (2-3): Better be a W
Louisville (2-3): The Cardinals keep losing close games. Their three losses this season have each been by three points. Given the Cardinals’ struggles and UNC’s offense holding their own against Notre Dame’s defense, this one moves from L to Toss Up.
Virginia (3-2): There’s losing to Florida State, and then there’s giving up 281 yards rushing to Florida State. FSU’s offense may in fact be legit, but their defense isn’t, and Virginia managed 37 yards rushing on 40 attempts. 281 yards rushing to 37. That makes our game a Toss Up.
NC State (3-2): Teetering on the brink, Dave Doeren ekes out two wins against Appalachian State and Louisville to stave off the pitchforks. State will once again be around a .500 team and plenty dangerous by the time UNC comes calling. However, still a W.
At the moment, that projects to four wins, five losses, and three toss-ups. 7-5 remains quite possible, if not probable.
