If you’re new to this series, we’re reviewing how the Green Bay Packers offense performed in 2025 by down & distance. We’re doing that by building out a call sheet. I ran it all down in my initial post. This is the 8th article in the series, where we’re looking at 3rd & Short (where “Short” is defined as needing 3 or fewer yards for a 1st down). We’ll reference Success Rate & Explosive Rate in this series, so here are the definitions. On 3rd down, a play is considered a success if it gains 100% of the yards needed
for a 1st down. A play is considered explosive if a pass gains 16+ yards or a run gains 12+ yards.
The fewer yards the Packers needed on 3rd down in 2025, the worse they were at converting a 1st down. They were the best team in the league on 3rd & Long. They were the 2nd best team on 3rd & Medium. On 3rd & Short, they dropped all the way down to 15th, with a success rate of 63.3% (the Bills were the best team in the league, with a success rate of 73.9%).
Before I go too much further here, I just want to take a beat to say that the best teams in 3rd & Short success rate don’t exactly mirror the best offenses in the league. Yes, the Bills sit at the top, but the Giants are at #2 (72.7%). The Browns (the worst offense in the league last year, per DVOA) are at 5th (69.0%). The Rams (the best offense in the league per DVOA) are at 23rd (59.3%). It’s not exactly the list I thought it would be.
Either way, the Packers sit at 15th in Success Rate. That Success Rate is roughly the same whether they were in shotgun (63.4%) or under center (62.5%). Their best combo was actually run plays out of shotgun, where they had a success rate of 68.4% (under center runs were at 60%).
While they were only a tick above average in Success Rate, they were #2 in the league at generating explosives on 3rd & short, with an explosive rate of 16.9% (behind the Bills at 21.7%). On the season, the Patriots were the best team in the league at generating explosives on all down & distances (16.2% explosive play rate), so the Packers were generating explosives on 3rd & Short better than the best explosive team in the league. If you’re not efficient, you can at least be explosive.
On the season, the Packers average 3.8 plays in 3rd & Short per game, the highest rate in the league (the Chargers & Bucs were tied at 2nd with 3.4 plays per game). I wanted to look at what the Packers did by run & pass in this situation, so I threw together a quick chart.
They’re slightly better in Success Rate when running, but a much higher Explosive Rate when passing.
My first thought was to go 3 passes and 1 run, and, technically, that’s the way we ended up going from a results perspective. But, since one of those was an RPO, it could have been a run if the defense played it a different way.
Runs
Inside Zone (6.0 YPA, 76.9% Success)
I know “Inside Zone on 3rd & Short” is treated as some sort of profanity by some fans, but the truth is that it has been an effective play in this situation. It’s the play the Packers ran the most in this situation (13 total calls), with a truly great success rate and yards per attempt. On top of that, it returned an Explosive Rate of 15.4%.
And just because I know someone is going to say something snarky about “yeah but what about all the shotgun runs”, I’ll throw this in there: the Packers ran Inside Zone out of shotgun 4 times in 3rd & short in 2025. The result? They averaged 10.3 yards per attempt, 100% Success Rate and 25% Explosive Rate.
Passes
PA Boot (4.2 YPA, 66.7% Success)
I love this concept in short yardage situations, because it plays so heavily off a core running concept. In the clip above, the Packers really leaned into a run look, putting an extra offensive lineman on the field along with two tight ends. That’s a ton of beef. The defense looks run all the way, and Jordan Love pops a throw over the top to a leaking Josh Whyle.
Lion (12.0 YPA, 75% Success)
A quick-game staple, and the Packers will often mirror this; that is, they’ll run the same concept to both sides of the field and Love will pick the more favorable matchup. This is read inside-out: if the first guy isn’t open, he’ll be clearing room for the guy behind him.
It’s not sexy, but it’s a solid concept that Love operates well.
RPOs
Inside Zone / Stalk-and-Go (41.0 YPA, 100% Success)
The above clip is one of my favorite plays from 2025, and the overall concept is one that I love. It plays off the quick WR screen RPO call. In that version, the two outside receivers will block for the #3 receiver in the flat. If the offense has numbers to that side, he’ll throw to the flat. If there isn’t a numbers advantage, he’ll hand the ball off.
While the defense is looking to not get blocked, the receivers will release into open space. It’s not something you can call all the time, but if the defense is looking to aggressively attack the WR screen, you can catch them for a big play.
Here’s how that section of the callsheet looks:
Here is where you can find the other parts of this series:
An Introduction
1st & 10
2nd & Long
2nd & Medium
2nd & Short
3rd & Long
3rd & Medium
Albums listened to: Vince Staples – Cry Baby; Noah Gundersen – Rites of Spring; Olivia Rodrigo – you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love; Jessica Lea Mayfield – Miss Obliteration
