Who: Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
When: 7:00pm Arizona Time
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center — Phoenix, Arizona
Watch: Prime Video
Listen: KMVP 98.7
Here we are. The Phoenix Suns are playing in their first ever play in game after a season that surprised a lot of people. The consensus coming in was that a successful year meant making the Play-In tournament, likely in the nine-versus-ten game, probably on the road. Instead, the Suns are hosting the seven-versus-eight game. It would take two straight
losses for them to miss the postseason entirely.
The opportunity is right in front of them. Beat the Portland Trail Blazers tonight, and you’re the seven seed. You’re on a flight headed to Texas to face the San Antonio Spurs. But first things first. They have to deal with a Portland team that has been playing better basketball down the stretch. Phoenix is 11–11 in March and April. Portland is 13–8. Since the All-Star break, the Blazers are 15–11. The Suns are 13–14.
Phoenix handled Portland well during the regular season. They went 2–1 and created chaos defensively, averaging 15.3 steals across those three games. That matters, especially against a team that led the league in turnovers at 17.3 per night and coughed it up 19.3 times per game against the Suns. The Blazers also launch threes — 42.2 per game — third most in the league, but they sit near the bottom in efficiency at 34.3%. When those shots don’t fall, they crash. Hard. They’re second in the NBA in offensive rebounds at 14.1 and lead the league in second-chance points at 18.4. That’s where the pressure comes. Because the Suns give up 15.6 second-chance points a night, 22nd in the league.
And yet, none of that really matters now. This is about execution. This is about handling the moment. One game, real stakes, postseason on the line. Who settles in, who controls the chaos, who finishes. That’s what decides tonight.
Probable Starters
Injury Report
Suns
- Grayson Allen — OUT (Left Hamstring Soreness)
Trail Blazers
- Damian Lillard — OUT (Left Achilles Tendon)
- Jerami Grant — QUESTIONABLE (Right Calf Strain)
What to Watch For
It starts with containing Deni Avdija.
If I asked you to guess where he ranks in the NBA in free throw attempts per game, where would you put him? Last season, he averaged 5.2 and ranked 28th in the league. This season, he’s found his lane attacking the basket. He’s third in the NBA, trailing only Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, getting to the line 9.2 times per game and hitting 80.2%. Yikes.
So step one is clear. Limit his access to the paint and avoid fouling when he gets there. That’s been a problem for the Suns lately. They’ve allowed 51 points per game in the paint over their last 10 games. That’s where it starts. Slow down the guy who applies the most pressure at the rim.
Step two is protecting the defensive glass. As previously noted, the Trail Blazers are second in the league in offensive rebounding. The Suns are fourth in offensive rebounding themselves, but overall, Portland sits sixth in total rebounds while Phoenix is 20th. That gap shows up. That’s effort, positioning, and attention to detail. It has to be there tonight.
And the question is how. Portland is big. They are long. That’s not something the Suns consistently bring with their rotations. The size exists on the roster, but it hasn’t always been on the floor. So it comes back to Jordan Ott and how he manages those rotations, how he counters what Portland throws at them, and how he finds the right balance when it matters most.
Key to a Suns Win
The Suns have to be effective from beyond the arc. Phoenix finished 12th in the NBA in three-point shooting, hitting 36.1%. When you look at their games against the Blazers this season, the connection is clear. In the two wins? They shot 42% from deep. In the loss, they were at 25.7%.
Yes, that loss came without Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, but the formula still holds. If the Suns are going to win, it comes down to balance. Effective three-point shooting. Strong point of attack defense. Limiting Deni Avdija getting downhill. Securing rebounds.
Portland is beatable. There’s a reason they finished 42–40 and are in this game. But the Suns have to turn Portland’s weaknesses into their strengths. The Blazers turn the ball over. That’s the pressure point. The Suns need to press, stay aggressive defensively, and create extra possessions. At the same time, they can’t get too handsy. They can’t give away easy points.
It’s about control. Dictate the pace, don’t let Portland impose theirs. If the Suns do that, they win.
Prediction
I’ve been in the arena for postseason games, for wins and losses, and there’s nothing quite like the Mortgage Matchup Center. The hope is that tonight that anxious feeling doesn’t creep in. But if it does, remember what this team has shown. They can come back. Even in those frustrating losses down the stretch, they were still within reach after falling behind by double digits more often than not.
So if you’re in the building tonight, don’t let that energy take over. I don’t think it will. The Suns have the best player on the court in Devin Booker. You can argue Deni Avdija had the better season, maybe he did, but he hasn’t lived in these moments the way Booker has.
Phoenix wins this one and advances to face the Spurs.
Suns 121, Trail Blazers 117
