Each week, we here at Mountain West Connection will briefly preview every series going on in the conference, detailing how each team is going into the series and a key item to note that we feel will dictate the winner. Afterwards, if there are any non-conference series going on, we will go through each series similarly.
Conference Series
Washington State (13-8) vs Air Force (14-7)
In terms of conference play, this series should be one every Mountain West fan is watching. Air Force had the week off from single games,
still riding the high of besting New Mexico last weekend to keep their second place spot in the standings. Meanwhile, Wazzu tried to get back in the win column after giving Fresno State their second conference game win this year by traveling to Washington to play Gonzaga, but the program wound up losing 10-5 on Monday.
The Falcons have been better on the mound, dropping their team ERA in conference play by over a run in the last couple weeks. However, they still sit at seventh place in that stat with a 8.04, where Washington State is at the very top of the conference in team ERA with a 5.07. That disparity, mixed with the fact that the Cougars have jumped up the standings in team batting average in conference play (from nearly last going into April to fifth at the time of writing with a .302. On paper, Washington State has the edge, but this should be a fun series with VERY serious tournament implications.
San Jose State (7-11) vs San Diego State (13-5)
While this series isn’t the marquee three-game set, this is one of two series this weekend where the higher seed team can knock out the lower team with other factors. San Jose State will try to avoid that scenario and stay in contention for the sixth and final conference tournament seed while taking on the one seeded San Diego State. The Spartans also had the week off from single games, preparing for the Aztecs while riding the high of beating GCU 2-1 last weekend. San Diego State also had a successful weekend, sweeping Nevada to regain the top seed, but lost to UC San Diego 8-4, ruining the 11-game winning streak.
Realistically speaking, SDSU should have this one in the bag. The Spartans rank dead last in conference team batting average (.276) and sixth in conference team ERA (7.68). San Diego State has been on the opposite end of the standings, going into this weekend fourth in team batting average (.322) and second in team ERA (5.31), and have been for basically the entire conference schedule. San Jose State does have the fire under them with the threat of missing playoffs, so that should hopefully be a fuel for the program, but the pressure could also lead to its downfall. Time will tell.
New Mexico (11-9-1) vs GCU (7-11)
The second series between a top four and bubble team, GCU will have a test ahead of them in hosting New Mexico if they want to stay in the conference tournament loop. The Lopes were supposed to travel to Eugene, Ore. to take on the Ducks, but their games were cancelled, giving them more time to prepare after losing their weekend series to SJSU. New Mexico was put in the same boat without the cancellations, losing to Air Force last weekend and having the week off from games.
Grand Canyon is in a do or die situation, and although the program is not in the same predicament as San Jose State, it will still need to battle uphill. One of the biggest pros to the team has been their pitching, as they have sat at the top of the conference in team ERA through conference games, currently posting a 5.94 in third place. New Mexico has also been good in that department at times, and sit fifth with a 6.98 team ERA. Both teams are within .002 of each other in team batting averages, so if trends stay the same, it should be a fun weekend in the desert. If not, GCU will face elimination.
UNLV (7-11) vs Fresno State (2-15-1)
As much as Fresno State has sadly become the butt of every Mountain West baseball conversation, they did have a slightly better weekend last week. The Diamond Dogs did wind up losing their series against Washington State, but did take their second conference win in the Sunday game, which is a step in the right direction. However, Fresno State did lose their weekday matchup against CSU Bakersfield 6-2 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, UNLV clinched a close series win against UW-Milwaukee with a five spot in the ninth on Sunday, but took a bad loss to Big 12 program BYU 5-2 at home.
Every series Fresno State has played since week three of conference play has had them as the underdog, and this will be no different. The Bulldogs had a good time in the middle of the conference statistically, but have now slipped to eighth in both team ERA and team batting average. Wazzu has been the better team when compared to UNLV as of late, so if Fresno State can squeak out a game against the Cougars, then there is slightly higher potential for an upset this weekend. If the Bulldogs are able to pull off the upset, then UNLV will be in deep trouble heading into the final week of conference play.
Non-Conference Series
Nevada (23-22) vs USC (39-12)
The Wolf Pack is in the only non-conference series with their highly anticipated road series against the formerly-ranked USC Trojans in Los Angeles. Nevada is in need of a pick me up weekend after being swept by San Diego State on the road last weekend. However, meeting USC might not be the best way to get back in the right direction, as the Trojans enter this weekend on a four game win streak after sweeping Rutgers and taking down Cal State Fullerton (a team other teams in the conference has had mixed results against). USC has an impressive 38-12 overall record as well, proving why the program was ranked at different points this year.
Outside of the Ole Miss series to start the year, this series will be the toughest challenge for the Wolf Pack. USC has batted .275 overall as a team this season, and has a staggering 3.55 team ERA overall, all while playing significantly better opponents both in non-conference and Big 10 play. However, the biggest stat that is worrisome to me is their home record, which was 29-1 going into the series.
Nevada already played game one yesterday, being embarrassed 0-8 on Thursday night. If they want any chance of even being close today or on Saturday, the Wolf Pack will need to not just get seven hits, but not leave 11 runners on base AND hunker down their pitching if possible. Ultimately, while this was set in stone months ago, this is a horrifically timed series for the Pack that will (on paper) extend their losing streak to seven unless they can lock in and play nearly perfect for a full game.
