Is the Kansas City Chiefs dynasty over? Is Jared Goff (2-0 vs. him) a Patrick Mahomes slayer? Are the Detroit Lions about to roll over another AFC contender in their own house?
Okay, let’s pump the brakes a little bit. This matchup between the 2-3 Chiefs and 4-1 Lions doesn’t look as we expected it to in the offseason, but that doesn’t make Kansas City any less dangerous. This should be a tight matchup, and I’ll prove it to you with our Week 6 Lions vs. Chiefs preview and prediction.
It’s On Paper
time.
Lions pass offense (4th in DVOA) VS. Chiefs pass defense (16th)
The Detroit Lions’ passing attack has been pretty good and consistent this year, although it’s worth pointing out the degree of difficulty hasn’t been particularly high so far. Every opponent other than the Packers rank in the bottom-12 in passer rating allowed.
Still, Detroit’s passing attack has been tough to stop due to their dynamic weapon and extremely efficient quarterback play. For the season, the Lions rank:
- Seventh in yards per attempt (8.2)
- First in passer rating (122.8)
- Fourth in dropback EPA (0.319)
- Third in dropback success rate (55.6%)
Pass protection hasn’t been as good as some of the sack stats seem to suggest. Detroit has been relatively average at protecting Goff this year. Detroit ranks 14th in PFF pass blocking, 13th in pass block win rate, and 11th in pressure percentage allowed (per NFL Pro).
The reason you may not have noticed is that Goff has been fantastic against the blitz or even when pressured. The Lions still rank fourth in yards per play when Goff is pressured (6.3) and 16th in EPA/pass. You’ve already likely seen how dominant he is against the blitz, but here’s a friendly visual reminder.
The Chiefs’ pass defense has been a mixed bag for most of the season. While they are holding teams to very low yardage totals—ranking seventh with 190.6 passing yards per game—efficiency is a different story. They rank:
- 13th in yards per attempt (6.8)
- Ninth in passer rating allowed (87.1)
- 10th in dropback EPA (0.023)
- 16th in success rate (47.1%)
Coverage isn’t so much the problem in Kansas City. Their talented secondary currently ranks second in PFF coverage grade (76.9), led by All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie, who has allowed just a 62.8 passer rating when targeted, per PFF (11th among CBs with at least 100 coverage snaps).
However, pass rush is certainly a problem. They rank 23rd in PFF pass rush grade (65.9), 24th in pass rush win rate (37%), yet oddly ninth in pressure rate (37.2) and t-ninth in sacks (13). That seems to suggest their coverage is helping the pass rush gets home, which is supported by the fact that opposing quarterbacks are averaging 2.71 second to throw, the ninth-longest mark in the league. Side note: when Goff has over 2.5 seconds to throw, Detroit ranks ninth in EPA/pass and fifth in yards per pass play (7.5).
Player to watch: George Karlaftis vs. Lions’ left tackle. As we saw last week, the absence of Taylor Decker required the Lions to adjust their gameplan significantly, forcing them to often have at least one tight end tied to the left tackle. When Giovanni Manu was left to fend for himself on the boundary, things didn’t go particularly well. It’s unclear who is playing left tackle this week, but Karlaftis is the Chiefs’ biggest pass rushing threat. He is tied with Aidan Hutchinson for the league-lead in pressures (31, per PFF) and his 3.5 sacks comfortably leads the Chiefs.
Advantage: Lions +1. While I am a bit concerned about the left tackle position, Goff has proven to be efficient no matter the situation. This will be one of the tougher secondaries the Lions will face this year, but they have enough weapons that even the most stacked defensive back room will struggle to cover all their bases.
Lions run offense (4th) vs. Chiefs run defense (17th)
I think it’s fair to say the Lions’ run offense has been a bit disappointing thus far. It’s not all that surprising given the changes on the offensive front, but they haven’t quite lived up to their (admittedly very high) standards yet. Really, the only true productive days came against two of the worst run defenses in football (Bears, Ravens), but last week’s performance against another bad run defense was disappointingly mediocre.
Still, the team ranks fairly high when it comes to the efficiency metrics.
- Ninth in rush EPA (-0.028)
- 13th in success rate (42.6%)
- 10th in adjusted line yards (4.58)
- 15th in rushing yard before contact (1.47)
Nothing quite matches the DVOA numbers, and that passes my eye test, too. I think this is closer to a top-10 rushing offense than a top-five one right now.
The Chiefs’ run defense is a little tough to figure out. By the look of this chart, they seem okay, especially when you consider that Ravens game is highly impacted by a 71-yard touchdown run given up in garbage time. Pull that meaningless run and the Ravens had just 95 rushing yards on 5.9 YPC. Removing that play would also bring the Chiefs’ overall YPC allowed down from 4.8 to 4.3. That is the power of early-season small sample sizes.
Now, that being all said, advanced statistics actually point to this being a much worse run defense than it appears to be. While they’re average at DVOA, look at where they rank in other advanced statistics:
- 31st in rush EPA (0.074)
- 30th in success rate (46.7%)
- 21st in adjusted line yards (4.51)
- 24th in yards before contact per rush (1.5)
So what the heck is going on? The easiest way to explain it is the Chiefs give up a lot of medium runs, but few big ones. They have ceded 18 rushes of 10+ yards this year (10th-most), but only a single rush of over 20 yards (the aforementioned 71 yarder). In fact, they’ve only given up four rushes of 15+ yards, and the other three were all QB scrambles. In essence, they’re not great up front, but the back seven is doing a good job limiting explosives.
Player to watch: Chris Jones. The Chiefs start defensive tackle is a game-wrecker. While he gets a lot of credit for his pass rush, don’t sleep on his ability to penetrate and blow up runs in the backfield.
Advantage: Lions +1. Maybe I’m being conservative here, but something is a little off about the Lions’ run game so far. And while the Chiefs defense is very suspicious with these advanced metrics, they have not given up a ton of yardage this year. This matchup just feels weird, so I don’t have a ton of confidence.
Chiefs pass offense (10th) vs. Lions pass defense (5th)
These are fairly pedestrian numbers from Patrick Mahomes, yet most of them still come out green due to some tough defensive matchups early this season. And the Chiefs have steadily gotten better, particularly upon the return of Xavier Worthy in the Ravens game—although Worthy is on the injury report again this week.
Still, I believe thoughts of the Chiefs’ demise have been highly exaggerated. For the season, they rank:
- 20th in yards per attempt (6.9)
- 19th in passer rating (93.5)
- 10th in dropback EPA (0.185)
- Sixth in dropback success rate (52.5%)
What’s unique about the Chiefs’ passing offense is they are both high frequency in short passes and deep passes. They have the fifth-most passing attempts under 10 air yards (130) and tied for the third-most of 20+ air yards (24). The game plan is essentially: let’s throw a bunch of short yards, rely on our speedy receivers to get a bunch of yards after the catch, and then catch the defense sleeping with deep shots over the top.
Pass protection has mostly been very good for the Chiefs, which explains the ability for Mahomes to go deep often. They rank fourth in PFF pass blocking grade, 19th in pass block win rate, and fourth in pressure rate.
The Lions’ pass defense has been most good to start the season, with a couple of concerning blips on the radar, including a fourth quarter last week in which Jake Browning recorded a perfect passer rating. Can we dismiss that entirely because of game situation (Lions up 25 to start the fourth)? Maybe, but it’s hard to completely ignore.
For the majority of the season, though, things look promising with this unit:
- 22nd in yards per attempt (7.2)
- 15th in passer rating (90.3)
- Ninth in dropback EPA (0.20)
- Fourth in dropback success rate (41.8%)
Advanced metrics like the Lions’ pass defense a little more than the traditional ones, because of Detroit’s propensity to give up big passing plays (16 of 20+ yards, t-seventh most) and some garbage-time yards allowed in both the Bears (83 passing yards in fourth quarter) and Bengals game (133).
The elephant in the room, though, are injuries in the Lions secondary. Starting cornerback D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold are out this week. Avonte Maddox, Brian Branch, and Kerby Joseph are all on the injury report, as well.
It’s a tough situation for Detroit, but hopefully one that can be compensated for by an impressive defensive front. The Lions rank fourth in pressure rate (41.6%), third in sack percentage (8.6%), and second in PFF pass rush grade (85.9). Admittedly, they’ve been helped out by their secondary, as evidenced by their 2.82 average seconds to pressure (fifth-longest). That pass rushing efficiency could be in trouble if the Lions’ secondary replacements don’t hold up.
Player to watch: Tyquan Thornton. Thornton is their big-play threat, already catching seven passes of at least 20+ yards—nearly half of the Chiefs’ 15 overall—and ranking sixth overall in the NFL. Detroit can’t let him hit on a explosives.
Advantage: Chiefs +1. The Chiefs still have a top-10 passing attack and a ridiculous playmaker at quarterback. While I would have some confidence in the Lions executing a game plan like they did against the Ravens at full health, the secondary injuries tip the scales in the Chiefs’ favor.
Chiefs run offense (7th) vs. Lions run defense (3rd)
The Chiefs’ run game has not been explosive this year, with Mahomes leading the team in rushing yards—and almost all of his yardage being of the scrambling variety. The Chiefs’ running backs duo—Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco—have combined for just 82 carries, 327 yards and 4.0 yards per carry. Despite that, the efficiency metrics may not be as bad as you think:
- Fourth in rush EPA (0.016)
- 18th in success rate (41.0%)
- Eighth in adjusted line yards (4.66)
- Second in rushing yard before contact (2.18)
These stats would suggest a strong run blocking offensive line, but I’m not so sure that’s the case. They rank 18th in run blocking grade (58.9) and 30th in run block win rate (67%). Their center, Creed Humphrey, is a great run blocker, but the rest of the offensive line struggles at it.
It’s hard to weed through all the inconsistent stats, but my best guess is that Mahomes’ incredible ability to scramble is covering up some significant deficiencies here in a traditional run game.
The Lions have held all but one opponent below 100 rushing yards this season, although they’ve faced four opponents who are averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry for the season. The overall stats are still impressive, but I think they’ll need to continue to prove themselves against better competition. They rank:
- Fifth in rush EPA (-0.215)
- Seventh in success rate (36.3%)
- 17th in adjusted line yards (4.37)
- 29th in rushing yard before contact (1.59)
That last stat may be concerning, but I believe it more represents Detroit’s style of run defense: a two-gapping system rather than a penetrating one. It’s counterbalanced by the fact that Detroit ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards after contact per attempt, only allowed 2.47 per rush.
More imperative to this matchup, the Lions have done a relatively good job stopping scrambling quarterbacks this year. Here’s each QB rushing stats against the Lions this year:
- Jordan Love: 3 rushes 4 yards
- Caleb Williams: 5 rushes, 27 yards
- Lamar Jackson: 7 rushes, 35 yards
- Joe Flacco: 3 rushes, -1 yards
- Jake Browning: 4 rushes, 31 yards
That’s pretty darn good, and with Alim McNeill potentially back this week, the defensive front has never been stronger.
Player to watch: Patrick Mahomes. No matter how sound and disciplined your defense, Mahomes can still make ridiculous plays that are seemingly unstoppable. Let’s just hope the Lions can somehow limit that to one or two on Sunday night.
Advantage: Lions +0.5. Mahomes’ game-breaking abilities has me limited in my confidence, but by the numbers the Lions do hold a slight advantage here.
Last week’s prediction:
My score prediction of 38-17 Lions wasn’t too far off from the 37-24 final, but it was obviously a bit optimistic compared to the final outcome. Part of that is due to the Bengals’ unlikely comeback in the fourth quarter—which was fueled by injury. That said, the Lions’ moderate struggles in the run game and stopping the run were unforeseen. I still have some moderate skepticism about the offensive line run blocking, but I attribute their bad numbers in run defense to committing less resources to the box in order to make sure they weren’t beaten by Cincy’s solid receivers.
In the comment section, almost nobody predicted the Bengals to put up 24 points—and that certainly seemed valid after the Bengals were held to three points through three quarters. But one commenter nearly got our first perfect prediction. Shout out to positivebob’s 37-23 prediction.
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Honorable mention goes to TLRWP, who had the Lions winning 35-24. If it weren’t for the late safety, it would’ve been right on.
This week’s prediction
The Lions come out with a slight +1.5 advantage and an edge in three of the four matchups. But I wasn’t willing to give either team an advantage more than +1 in any matchup, which just goes to show you how uncertain I am about how this game is going to go overall. Quite frankly, I have no idea. If I were a betting man (and I am most certainly not), I would stay the hell away from this game. It could be a shootout. It could be a defensive battle. I really don’t have a good feel for it at all, and that’s largely because I think this Chiefs team is better than their record suggests, and the Lions are dealing with some untimely injuries.
Still, I think the Lions’ roster is better, and these huge stages have never been too big for them. Lions 31, Chiefs 30.
