The NFL is only entering Week 5, but the October stakes couldn’t be higher for the NFC West based on next weekend’s games. The Los Angeles Rams salvaged potential disaster by coming back to beat the Philadelphia Eagles and setting their record at 2-2, and they’re within striking distance of the 4-0 San Francisco 49ers and 3-1 Seattle Seahawks.
However, that slim margin could become a chasm if the Rams lose to the Buffalo Bills in Week 5.
Worst Case: 49ers 5-0, Rams 2-3
The 49ers already have a head-to-head advantage by beating the
Rams 27-7 in Week 1. So already the Rams are in a position where they are in a must-win situation when they face San Francisco in Week 14 — but a lot could change by then.
Either in L.A.’s favor or against it. Starting this weekend.
Week 5: 49ers at Seahawks
Week 5: Bills at Rams
If the 49ers beat the Seahawks, and the Bills beat the Rams, then L.A. will essentially already be four games back of first place in the NFC West. Four, not three.
That’s 3 games back in the win-loss column + a head-to-head loss.
Things get really, really ugly when a team is that far behind another team at any point in the season.
The good news about it being early in the season is that there’s a lot of time for things to change.
The bad news is that it could get that bad this early in the season?
The Rams are not in must-win territory, especially when it comes to simply making the playoffs (and it should NOT be the goal for L.A. to only make the playoffs, they must do much better than that), but Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are pushing the envelope if they lose to the Bills.
And the Bills are not going to be easy to beat.
Odds to NFC West if this happens: 8.5%
If the 49ers end up 5-0 and the Rams 2-3, then L.A.’s odds to win the NFC West drop to approximately 8.5%. This isn’t easy to calculate because a lot depends on whether or not the Rams win the rematch. Even if the Rams win that game, the odds only go up to about 12%. If the Rams lose the rematch, then their odds to win the NFC West are almost 0.
But think of it like this based on the 5-0 vs. 2-3 scenario:
If the 49ers go 10-2 the rest of the way, the Rams can’t win the division
If the 49ers go 9-3 the rest of the way, the Rams have to go 12-0
If the 49ers go 8-4 the rest of the way, the Rams have to go 11-1
If the 49ers go 7-5 the rest of the way, the Rams have to go 10-2
It becomes a situation where the Rams have to be almost perfect and they need the 49ers to play significantly worse than they’ve already played this season.
And that’s just looking at ONE team. The Rams also have to be better than the Seahawks to win the division.
“So what? Just win a wild card!”
Here we go again: The “All-In” Rams going for…a wild card?
Wild Card teams don’t win
The Rams haven’t won or reached the Super Bowl since 2021, when they won the division and were the number four seed. That team also had two home games in the playoffs, including the NFC Championship against the 49ers. L.A. can’t count on getting a home game if they are a wild card, and it’s exceedingly rare for teams to go 3-0 on the road in the playoffs.
Like it just doesn’t happen.
Since 2021’s 7-team playoff expansion, a wild card has NOT made the Super Bowl.
From 2002-2020, wild card teams reached the Super Bowl only 4 times (05 PIT, 07 NYG, 10 GB, 20 TB).
So since 2002 realignment, only four wild card teams have reached the Super Bowl. And since expanding the schedule to include an extra wild card, a wild card teams has not even reached the Super Bowl.
The goal NEEDS to be winning the NFC West.
If the Rams lose to the Bills, that becomes extremely difficult to do. Especially if the 49ers beat the Seahawks.
Bills 3-1
Buffalo dropped to 3-1 after losing to the Patriots 29-26 on Sunday. It was a close game, obviously, and needed an exceptional catch by New England’s rookie receiver to win the game in the final minute.
On offense, the Bills have Josh Allen and James Cook and they lead the NFL in points per game.
On defense, the Bills are 25th in points allowed per game. Buffalo has allowed at least 29 points in three of four games, with the only exception being the hapless L.A. Chargers.
The Bills are hard to beat. The Rams need to beat them. If McVay and Stafford L.A. to a win, then the Rams will be a threat to win the NFC West regardless of how Seattle vs. San Francisco goes because then we’ll know that the team is waking up. However, if they sleep through this week and lose, the odds of getting the rebound that they need to have will be dramatically deflated.
