Math is hard. NBA math can be absolutely mind-dumbing even for “smart” people who write about the team. So when the cap experts talk, I like to listen.
I was watching old friend Keith Smith discuss the Celtics options on the Celtics Beat podcast and keyed in on some of the things he mentioned about the Celtics financial options (starting at about the 38:25 mark). He ran the numbers on the returning Celtics guaranteed contracts, the draft picks, and reasonable assumptions around the end of the roster
guys and the two key figures he came up with are as follows.
The Celtics are about $15M under the luxury tax threshold and about $36M under the 2nd apron.
Here’s what that means to some potential paths forward for the team.
Duck the tax again, use the MLE
The math: The Celtics have roughly $15M under the tax threshold. The MLE is right around $15M.
So they’ll be close enough to under the tax that they will be able to once again find a way to stay under and still upgrade the roster with a quality free agent. That could mean bringing back Anfernee Simons. It could mean getting a guy like Mitchell Robinson (though that might be a long shot). Keith mentioned guys like Brook Lopez or even bringing back Nic Vucevic on short term (tradable) deals if all else fails. Perhaps there’s someone I’m not even tracking that makes sense at that number. The point is, it is a valuable tool for the team to use.
Another thing to note is that you could forget the MLE and use the space you have to make an unbalanced trade. One that comes to mind is dealing Hauser to the Pistons for Isaiah (Beef Stew) Stewart. That would save the Pistons about 4M and give them a floor spacing wing to add to their offense.
Theoretically, if the team is able to duck the tax one more time, they’ll be more willing to spend into the tax for the next several years (as it becomes harder and harder to fill out the roster around the Jays).
Pay the tax, use both the MLE and TPE
The math: The Celtics are about $36M under the 2nd apron. They could use the MLE and as much of the $27.7M trade exception as you can fit under the 1st apron.
An important note: Using either the MLE or the TPE would (by rule) hard cap the team at the 1st Apron ($195.9M) which is above the tax threshold ($187.7M) but obviously below the 2nd Apron ($207.8M).
This would only be worth it if they can really make a go-for-it title chasing move. We’re talking the equivalent of adding Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis back in 2023-24.
I have no idea who the names would be that fit that bill. Perhaps the Cavs end up winning the Giannis sweepstakes and decide that they need to offload a center and the Celtics happily oblige by taking Jarrett Allen (in exchange for picks) off their hands. Not sure how realistic that is, but the point is that you can do a lot with a $27.7M trade exception if you have an owner that is willing to pay the tax bill. But again, it has to be for the exact right guys that could put this team over the top.
Keith wisely points out that the one number the Celtics won’t go over is the 2nd Apron (if that’s even possible), because of all the roster restrictions that come with that (including the frozen future draft pick). Brad moved a lot of salaries to get out of that particular jail cell, and he’s not going to jump right back into it any time soon.
Blockbuster trade (involving Jaylen Brown or Derrick White)
We’ve already put a great deal of time and virtual ink dedicated to the blockbuster options. You know the names and potential impacts by now. I don’t think Brad is in any particular hurry to move either Jaylen or Derrick. On the other hand, I don’t think he would hesitate to sell high if the right return came back either.
What would you prefer to see the Celtics do? What are some names of players that you would want them to pursue this offseason?
