LOS ANGELES — When Blake Snell returns from the injured list to start Tuesday night, the Dodgers will have a full six-man starting rotation again, for the first time since Shohei Ohtani last pitched, on July 3.
In the 30 games since Ohtani’s last start, the Dodgers have used five regular starters, with Tarik Skubal essentially replacing the optioned Emmet Sheehan last week, though perhaps that turn through the rotation could have also counted as a period with a six-man rotation.
Otherwise, the Dodgers
used scheduled off days plus bullpen games on July 10 and July 19 to fill in the gaps left by Ohtani resting his inflamed left knee, at least on the pitching side. There was also the Cole Irvin call-up on July 31, when he pitched six bulk innings in relief in what was spiritually a start, in that his role was to reset the bullpen.
How long the Dodgers stick with a six-man rotation is in question, as manager Dave Roberts noted on Monday.
“Eric [Lauer] is scheduled for Wednesday,” Roberts said. “We’ll kind of get through that, and see where we go from there.”
When Skubal was acquired on August 2, the stated plan was for Lauer to shift to the bullpen, but he was granted a reprieve once Sheehan was optioned the next day. So Lauer might shift to the bullpen, but the Dodgers are fighting a two-front war when it comes to managing their pitching staff.
In the immediate future Lauer’s start against the Royals on Wednesday is the sixth game in the Dodgers’ stretch of 13 game days in a row. The Dodgers will need to fill innings somehow on May 18 at Coors Field in Denver, the middle game of the series and game 12 of 13 in this stretch. Whether Lauer is used in relief or in whatever role, getting to then might see a changing landscape.
Playing 13 days in a row usually lends itself to several pitching changes due to the need for fresh arms. In their last such stretch, from May 7-19, the Dodgers added eight new pitchers to the active roster. Active roster turnover is the norm in these cases, and to that end on Monday Seth Halvorsen and Charlie Barnes were called up, with Snell coming on Tuesday.
But if the Dodgers decide to use a six-man rotation, it comes with a different cost than earlier this season. Ohtani as a two-way player does not count against the roster limit of 13 active pitchers, so any innings he’s eating while starting lessens the overall load of the staff. When Ohtani is one of the six starters, the Dodgers can still have a full complement of eight relief pitchers. With six “regular” starting pitchers, that means only seven relievers.
We can see the difference in Dodgers bullpen performance when Ohtani was pitching regularly to after he last pitched.
For each period, I counted planned extended bulk relief outings as starts, and lumped in bullpen games (May 15, July 10, July 19) into the total workload by relievers, averaged over each period: 89 games through July 3, 30 games since July 4.
Tyler Glasnow is two starts into his rehab assignment, and Roberts said Monday that Glasnow is expected to pitch four innings his next time out then five innings before getting activated off the injured list. Roughly scheduling that out, Glasnow wouldn’t return to the Dodgers until roughly August 27.
September roster expansions adds one more pitcher into the mix, mitigating the risk. But in the interim, without Ohtani on the mound, every time the Dodgers use a six-man rotation it will come at a cost which will be factored into the decision.
