The Kansas City Chiefs are enjoying an early-season bye week, sitting at a perfect 4-0 record. The only undefeated team left in the AFC, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the NFL and are currently third in the league with 1,648 yards of total offense.
Running back Kenneth Walker has breathed new life into the Chiefs’ offense and has led the NFL in rushing so far with 537 yards through the four-game stretch.
Walker has helped the Chiefs offense in dozens of ways, but even with his ability,
the Chiefs have still been inconsistent in short-yardage situations this season.
At times, third-and-fourth-and-short conversions have been automatic, but in recent weeks the Chiefs have struggled to convert.
Let’s dive into what works and what the team needs to improve on.
A look at the numbers
The offense ranks 10th in the league in 4th-down conversion percentage at 62.5%, while ranking 12th in red-zone touchdown rate at 63.16%.
As many remember, the Chiefs led the league in 4th-down conversion percentage last year at a whopping 75%, thanks largely to Kareem Hunt’s dominant short-yardage season. The Chiefs weren’t quite as good in the red zone, but they still finished 12th in the league with a 56.3% touchdown conversion rate once they entered the red zone.
The season is only a quarter old, but this appears to be an area where the Chiefs may have regressed early in the season in short-yardage-to-go situations.
A look at the tape shows that a few tweaks could help the Chiefs improve as the season progresses.
What’s worked
On opening night, the Chiefs wasted no time rolling out a “jumbo” package on the first 4th-and-short.
Out of a full house set with an overloaded offensive line, the Chiefs needed only a yard. With nose tackle Khyiris Tonga lined up at fullback, the Chiefs go with their version of a dive play up the middle. Only needing a yard, Walker uses good vision to find an opening and slip through for three yards and a first down.
On the next fourth-and-short, the Broncos would try to take away the middle, but the Chiefs had a bigger play in mind.
The defense tries to pinch to take away the middle, but the Chiefs run power to the left and catch the Broncos slanting inside, with safeties crashing in. The play isn’t well blocked, but Tonga gets just enough to buy Walker time to get outside and break it to the house.
A week later, the Chiefs would show a few wrinkles in short yardage to keep defenses guessing.
To keep defenses respecting Tonga, the Chiefs have given him the ball a few times this season, and in Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, it worked perfectly when he blasted ahead and rode the offensive line’s momentum for a first down.
Later in the game, with the defense keyed in on Walker and Tonga, the Chiefs executed a beautiful play-action look in the low red zone.
Out of the jumbo look with Tonga as the fullback in an I-formation, the Chiefs go with a play-action look. Jalen Royals lines up as a Y, as the Chiefs have shown on prior looks, but on the snap, he releases and is wide open in the end zone.
In the first couple of weeks of the season, the Chiefs’ short-yardage attack looked unstoppable, but in the last couple of weeks, it has struggled.
Issues
In Weeks 3 and 4, the Chiefs struggled to convert on fourth and short, and the issues started up front.
On fourth down, the Chiefs go with their jumbo set with Walker as the single back. On the snap, they run power, and Walker tries to cut inside quickly, but he is stuffed and falls short of the first down. The defense penetrates through the down side of the offensive line, and Kansas City’s front creates little push.
Walker had to make a quick decision and tried to cut it up the middle, but he could not get through.
Last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, the Chiefs still struggled to convert on fourth down, and once again the defense penetrated the front to stuff Walker.
The Chiefs go with zone out of the full-house set and a jumbo offensive line.
Once again, penetration through the B-gap causes a hold-up and stops momentum. Walker tries to navigate around it, but the Raiders linebackers fill quickly and close the hole to stop him before he can break free.
The bottom line
The Chiefs have all the talent to convert fourth down at will, so the issues over the last two weeks have been concerning, especially since they showed what they are capable of in the first two weeks of the season.
Converting on fourth and short is about creating a charge at the line and having the ball carrier make a quick decision off it. Penetration from the defensive front ruins looks and can change the game’s outcome.
So far, these issues haven’t affected the Chiefs’ win-and-loss record, but they must improve in this area moving forward.
The talent and play calls are there; the team must simply execute in these critical moments.
